moonlight: 2026-02-15

15.2.26

A U.S. 'Debt Spiral' Could Start Soon as the Interest Rate on Government Borrowing Is Poised to Exceed Economic Growth, Budget Watchdog Says

# A U.S. 'Debt Spiral' Could Start Soon as the Interest Rate on Government Borrowing Is Poised to Exceed Economic Growth, Budget Watchdog Says

## The Fiscal Tipping Point: When the Cost of Debt Outruns the Economy Itself

**Published: Sunday, February 15, 2026 – 2:00 PM EST**

For years, economists have warned about America's unsustainable fiscal trajectory. For years, Washington has largely ignored them. But according to a stark new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the moment of reckoning may be closer than anyone wants to admit .

The numbers are staggering. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach **101% of GDP in 2026**—meaning the government's obligations now exceed the entire annual output of the American economy . By 2030, that figure will surpass the all-time record set in 1946, when the nation was demobilizing after World War II . And by 2036, debt held by the public is expected to balloon to **120% of GDP**, with gross federal debt hitting **$63 trillion** .

But the headline-grabbing debt numbers tell only part of the story. The real alarm—the one that has budget watchdogs sounding sirens—is about **interest costs**.

Net interest payments on the national debt are projected to surge from just over **$1 trillion in 2026 to more than $2.1 trillion in 2036** . That's not just a line item; it's a fundamental shift in how the federal government allocates taxpayer dollars. By 2036, interest costs will account for **nearly 19% of all federal spending**—more than the government spends on Medicare .

And here's the crux of the warning: **The interest rate on government borrowing is poised to exceed the rate of economic growth** . When that happens, the math becomes inescapable. Debt grows faster than the economy, requiring more borrowing to service the debt, which in turn generates even more interest, in a self-reinforcing spiral that has historically ended badly for nations that fail to course-correct.

**Michael Peterson**, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, called the CBO's report "an urgent warning to our leaders about America's costly fiscal path" .

**Maya MacGuineas**, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), was even blunter: "There are no surprises here or bright spots of encouraging news: Our nation's deficits, debt, interest payments and trust funds are all in terrible shape" .

This comprehensive 5,000-word analysis will walk you through every dimension of this fiscal crisis: the raw numbers from the CBO's latest projections, the mechanism of a potential "debt spiral," the political forces driving the deterioration, and—most importantly—what this means for American households, investors, and the nation's future.

---

## The Keyword Goldmine: What America Is Searching for Right Now

A story blending fiscal policy, economic projections, and personal financial implications generates high-intent search traffic. Here are the most valuable, lower-competition keyword clusters dominating the conversation today.

**Table 1: High-Value Keyword Clusters – U.S. Debt Spiral 2026**

| **Keyword Cluster Theme** | **Sample High-Value, Lower-Competition Keywords** | **Commercial Intent & Advertiser Appeal** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **Debt & Deficit Analysis** | "US national debt by year chart 2026", "CBO budget outlook 2026 summary", "debt to GDP ratio history", "interest on national debt 2026" | **Extremely High.** Targets investors and policy professionals seeking hard data. Advertisers: Economic research subscriptions, financial planning services, government bond ETFs. |

| **Interest Rate Impact** | "will interest rates stay high 2026", "10-year Treasury yield forecast", "Fed policy and national debt", "mortgage rates and government borrowing" | **Very High.** Targets homeowners and prospective buyers. Advertisers: Mortgage lenders, refinance companies, real estate platforms. |

| **Fiscal Policy & Elections** | "2026 election fiscal policy issues", "entitlement reform 2026", "Social Security Medicare insolvency dates", "tax policy after Trump tax cuts" | **High.** Targets politically engaged voters. Advertisers: Political action committees, advocacy organizations, policy think tanks. |

| **Inflation & Dollar Concerns** | "dollar reserve status 2026", "inflation hedge strategies", "TIPS bonds explained", "fiscal dominance Fed independence" | **High.** Targets sophisticated investors hedging against macro risks. Advertisers: Gold dealers, inflation-protected securities, currency hedging services. |

| **Personal Finance Impact** | "national debt impact on retirement", "how does deficit affect my 401k", "government borrowing and savings rates", "generational wealth and fiscal policy" | **Moderate-High, Growing.** Targets families concerned about long-term financial security. Advertisers: Retirement planners, college savings advisors, financial literacy programs. |

---

## Part 1: The Numbers That Should Terrify Everyone

### The CBO's Latest Outlook: A Fiscal Trajectory Like No Other

On February 11, 2026, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual **Budget and Economic Outlook**, covering fiscal years 2026 through 2036 . The report was notable not for any single shocking number, but for the relentless accumulation of grim data points.

**Table 2: Key CBO Projections – 2026 to 2036**

| **Metric** | **2026** | **2036** | **Change** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **Deficit as % of GDP** | 5.8% | 6.7% | +0.9 pts |

| **Debt Held by Public as % of GDP** | 101% | 120% | +19 pts |

| **Interest as % of GDP** | 3.3% | 4.6% | +1.3 pts |

| **Interest as % of Federal Spending** | ~14% | ~19% | +5 pts |

*Sources: CBO, PGPF, Fox Business *

**CBO Director Phillip Swaggel** noted that sustained deficits of this magnitude during a period of low unemployment are "historically unusual" . Since 1930, deficits have never remained above 5.6% of GDP for five consecutive years—yet CBO projects exactly that through 2036 .

### The Record That Will Be Broken

The most striking historical comparison involves debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP. The previous record of **106%** was set in 1946, as the nation demobilized after World War II . That debt was incurred for an existential national emergency, and it was rapidly paid down in subsequent decades.

CBO projects that the U.S. will surpass that record in **2030**—not because of war, but because of a sustained inability to align spending with revenue . By 2036, the ratio will hit 120%, far exceeding anything in American history outside of wartime.

**The CBO's own warning** is worth quoting directly: "The United States' fiscal position would be more vulnerable to an increase in interest rates, because the larger debt is, the more an increase in interest rates raises debt-service costs. The risk of a fiscal crisis—that is, a situation in which investors lose confidence in the value of the U.S. government's debt—would increase. Such a crisis would cause interest rates to rise abruptly and other economic and financial disruptions to occur" .

---

## Part 2: The "Debt Spiral" – How It Works and Why It Matters

### When the Cost of Debt Exceeds Economic Growth

The concept of a "debt spiral" or "debt doom loop" is not theoretical economics. It is a mathematical inevitability when certain conditions align.

**The mechanism is simple:**

1. **The government runs persistent deficits**, requiring continuous borrowing.

2. **The national debt grows faster than the economy** (debt-to-GDP rises).

3. **Interest rates on that debt exceed the economy's growth rate**.

4. **Interest costs compound faster than the tax base expands**.

5. **More borrowing is required just to pay interest**, further increasing debt.

6. **The cycle accelerates**, eventually spooking investors and forcing even higher rates.

**Table 3: The Debt Spiral – A Visual Representation**

| **Stage** | **Condition** | **Consequence** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **1** | Deficits persist | Debt accumulates |

| **2** | Debt growth > GDP growth | Debt-to-GDP rises |

| **3** | Interest rate > GDP growth rate | Interest costs compound faster than economy |

| **4** | Interest consumes revenue share | Crowds out other spending |

| **5** | More borrowing to pay interest | Debt accelerates |

| **6** | Investor confidence erodes | Rates spike, crisis ensues |

**The Cato Institute's analysis** warns explicitly of this dynamic: "At any point, bondholders may lose confidence in the government's ability to service its debt without resorting to inflation and demand higher returns to compensate for elevated risk. Higher bond yields would then increase the cost of servicing the debt, leading to more borrowing, yet higher yields, and so on. Such a 'debt doom loop' could quickly escalate into a full-blown fiscal crisis" .

### The Current Math: Dangerously Close

According to CBO projections, net interest costs will reach **3.3% of GDP in 2026** and climb to **4.6% by 2036** . Meanwhile, CBO projects **real GDP growth averaging roughly 1.8-2.2%** over the same period .

The precise relationship between interest rates on government debt and economic growth determines whether the spiral begins. With 10-year Treasury yields currently around **4.1%** , the gap is uncomfortably narrow .

**Brian Mulberry** of Zacks Investment Management argues that concerns about fiscal sustainability are already affecting rates: "The bond market has been continuously expressing concerns about the fiscal outlook. The core issue is that the scale of the deficit shows an almost exponential trend. It is this very concern that keeps current interest rates higher than they would be if the fiscal situation were more manageable" .

Mulberry estimates that if markets had greater confidence in U.S. fiscal management, the Federal Reserve's policy rate could be about **100 basis points lower** .

---

## Part 3: The Interest Explosion – $13.8 Trillion Over a Decade

### Putting the Numbers in Perspective

The Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonpartisan organization focused on fiscal sustainability, has attempted to translate the CBO's projections into terms Americans can grasp .

**Table 4: What $13.8 Trillion in Interest Actually Means**

| **Comparison** | **Value** |

| :--- | :--- |

| **Per Person (U.S. population)** | ~$40,500 |

| **Compared to Social Security's cash deficits** | More than 4x over next 10 years |

| **Compared to disaster costs** | Nearly 5x the cost of all U.S. weather/climate disasters since 1980 (each exceeding $1 billion) |

| **Compared to water infrastructure** | More than 20x the 20-year, $625 billion need |

| **Compared to prior interest costs** | Nearly double what the government spent on net interest between 2005 and 2024 (inflation-adjusted) |

**The daily interest bill** tells an even starker story. Right now, the Treasury pays about **$2.6 billion per day**, on average, just to service the debt . By 2035, that figure will reach **$4.9 billion per day** .

### The Crowd-Out Effect

Rising interest costs don't exist in a vacuum. Every dollar spent on interest is a dollar that cannot be spent on:

- National defense

- Infrastructure

- Scientific research

- Education

- Healthcare

- Tax cuts

- Emergency response

**The Cato Institute** warns of "the 'crowd-out' effect, wherein federal debt competes with more productive private enterprises for available capital, reducing private investment and slowing economic growth" .

**The Las Vegas Review-Journal editorial board** noted: "Higher costs for entitlements—an aging population carries a price tag—and interest payments on the debt will swallow up vast amounts of taxpayer money. This should concern both Democrats and Republicans. Rising debt payments represent the culmination of years of fiscal folly and threaten a number of progressive spending priorities" .

By 2036, **interest costs alone will consume nearly one-fifth of all federal spending** .

---

## Part 4: The Drivers – Why This Is Happening

### Entitlements: The 800-Pound Gorilla

The primary drivers of long-term fiscal deterioration are not discretionary programs that Congress debates each year. They are **mandatory spending**—entitlement programs that grow automatically based on demographics and healthcare costs.

**Table 5: Entitlement Spending Growth – 2025 to 2036**

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

*Source: Cato Institute *

By 2036, **Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest costs will account for 73% of total federal spending**, consuming nearly **100% of all federal revenue** .

**Jonathan Burek** of the Bipartisan Policy Center noted: "Our fiscal situation is deteriorating. Our debt is now equivalent to 100% of GDP. Instead of hitting the brakes, we're accelerating. For a peacetime, growing economy, such massive deficits are unprecedented" .

### The Tax Cut Factor

The CBO's cumulative deficit projection from 2026 to 2035 is **$1.4 trillion higher** than its January 2025 estimate . The largest single policy change accounting for this increase is Republicans' flagship tax legislation, the **"One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA)** , which CBO estimates will increase deficits by **$4.7 trillion over 10 years** .

This estimate is "dynamic," meaning it includes both interest costs and macroeconomic effects. If Congress extends certain populist provisions that are currently scheduled to expire (such as "no tax on tips"), the true cost could reach **$5 trillion to $6 trillion** .

### Tariffs: A Partial Offset

The OBBBA's cost is partially offset by tariff policy, which CBO projects will **reduce deficits by $3 trillion over 10 years** . The average effective tariff rate has risen to **13%** , the highest level since at least the 1940s .

However, these projections assume that tariff rates as of November 2025 remain permanent—a significant uncertainty. The Supreme Court may strike down parts of the tariff scheme, and future administrations could reduce rates .

### Immigration Enforcement: Adding to the Deficit

CBO estimates that the administration's deportation campaign has **increased deficits by $500 billion** over the 10-year period, partly because immigrants contribute more in revenue than they consume in benefits . More aggressive enforcement assumptions could push the true deficit impact past **$1 trillion** .

---

## Part 5: The Consequences – What Happens If Nothing Changes

### Economic Growth Suffers

The most immediate consequence of unsustainable debt is slower economic growth. When government borrowing consumes available capital, private investment suffers. Productivity weakens. Wage growth slows.

**Kurt Couchman** of Americans for Prosperity warns: "Excessive federal debt is already weighing on economic growth. If left unchecked, it could expose the U.S. to a severe downturn, especially during the next global shock" .

CBO projects **GDP growth of 2.2% in 2026**, gradually slowing to an average of **1.8%** over the following decade . The Trump administration projects more optimistic growth of **3-4%** , but CBO's more conservative estimates are widely shared among independent forecasters .

### Inflation and Fiscal Dominance

Persistently high deficits risk **fiscal dominance**, where government borrowing undermines the central bank's ability to contain inflation . In this scenario, the Federal Reserve could face pressure to keep rates artificially low or to monetize deficits by purchasing Treasury bonds—effectively printing money to cover the government's bills.

Historically, fiscal dominance has resulted in painfully high inflation or even hyperinflation .

### The Dollar's Reserve Status at Risk

CBO explicitly warns that "higher inflation expectations could erode the dollar's status as the dominant international reserve currency" . This would have profound implications:

- Higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government

- Reduced global demand for Treasury bonds

- Weakened ability to impose financial sanctions

- Increased volatility in currency markets

### The Crisis Scenario

The worst-case scenario is not gradual decline but sudden rupture. As CBO notes, investors could "lose confidence in the value of the U.S. government's debt" . If that happened:

- Interest rates would spike abruptly

- The Treasury would struggle to finance operations

- Financial markets would freeze

- The government would face impossible choices: drastic spending cuts, massive tax increases, or inflationary money creation

**Ray Dalio**, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has repeatedly warned that excessive debt can eventually force governments into such painful trade-offs .

---

## Part 6: What This Means for You

### For Homeowners and Borrowers

Rising interest costs on government debt put upward pressure on **mortgage rates, auto loans, and credit card rates** . Brian Mulberry of Zacks estimates that the 10-year Treasury yield—which directly influences mortgage rates—would be **50-75 basis points lower** if markets were more confident in U.S. fiscal management .

For a typical homebuyer, that could mean the difference between a 6.5% mortgage rate and a 5.75% rate—hundreds of dollars per month.

### For Investors

The bond market is already signaling concern. As one analyst noted, "The bond market has been continuously expressing concerns about the fiscal outlook" . Investors should consider:

- **Duration risk**: Long-term bonds are more vulnerable to rate spikes

- **Inflation protection**: TIPS and other inflation-linked securities

- **Diversification**: International exposure to reduce U.S.-specific risk

### For Retirees and Near-Retirees

Social Security and Medicare face insolvency dates within the next decade . The Social Security Trust Fund is expected to be depleted by **2033 or 2034** . Without reform, beneficiaries could face automatic benefit cuts of roughly **20-25%** .

Medicare faces similar challenges. The combination of demographic pressure (the "silver tsunami" of retiring Baby Boomers) and healthcare cost growth is unsustainable under current law .

### For Young Americans

The burden of today's borrowing falls disproportionately on younger generations. They will face:

- Higher taxes to service the debt

- Slower economic growth

- Reduced public investments

- Potential cuts to entitlement programs they've paid into

As one economist noted, this represents a fundamental intergenerational transfer that raises serious questions of fairness .

---

## FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS (FAQs)

**Q1: What exactly is a "debt spiral"?**

**A:** A debt spiral, also called a "debt doom loop," occurs when interest costs on government debt grow faster than the economy . This creates a self-reinforcing cycle: more debt leads to higher interest costs, which require more borrowing, which leads to even higher interest costs. Eventually, investors may lose confidence, causing rates to spike and potentially triggering a fiscal crisis .

**Q2: How close are we to a debt spiral?**

**A:** CBO projects that net interest costs will reach **3.3% of GDP in 2026**, while economic growth is projected at roughly **1.8-2.2%** . With 10-year Treasury yields around 4.1%, the relationship between borrowing costs and growth is dangerously close to the point where the spiral accelerates .

**Q3: What did the CBO's latest report say?**

**A:** The February 11, 2026, CBO report projected:

- Deficits rising from $1.9 trillion in 2026 to $3.1 trillion in 2036

- Debt held by the public reaching 101% of GDP in 2026 and 120% by 2036

- Interest costs doubling from ~$1 trillion to $2.1 trillion

- The U.S. surpassing its WWII debt record by 2030

**Q4: What's driving the deficit growth?**

**A:** The primary drivers are:

1. **Entitlement spending** (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) driven by an aging population

2. **Interest costs** on existing debt

3. **Tax cuts**, particularly the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," estimated to add $4.7 trillion to deficits over 10 years

4. **Immigration enforcement costs**, estimated at $500 billion+

**Q5: Are tariffs helping or hurting?**

**A:** Tariffs are currently **reducing deficits by an estimated $3 trillion over 10 years**, partially offsetting the cost of tax cuts . However, these projections assume current tariff rates remain permanent—a significant uncertainty given legal challenges and potential policy changes .

**Q6: Could the U.S. actually default on its debt?**

**A:** A voluntary default is extremely unlikely. However, a "fiscal crisis" as described by CBO would involve investors losing confidence, causing interest rates to spike and forcing difficult choices . This is different from an intentional default but could still have severe economic consequences.

**Q7: What does this mean for interest rates and mortgages?**

**A:** Fiscal concerns are already **keeping interest rates higher than they would otherwise be**. Brian Mulberry of Zacks estimates that if markets had greater confidence in U.S. fiscal management, rates could be about **100 basis points lower** . For mortgages, that translates to significant monthly payment differences.

**Q8: When will Social Security and Medicare run out of money?**

**A:** The Social Security Trust Fund is projected to be depleted by **2033 or 2034**, at which point benefits would need to be cut by roughly 20-25% unless reforms are enacted . Medicare faces similar challenges.

**Q9: Is there any good news in the CBO report?**

**A:** As Maya MacGuineas of CRFB put it, "There are no surprises here or bright spots of encouraging news" . Revenues are projected to remain above historical averages, but spending growth consistently outpaces revenue growth .

**Q10: What can be done to fix this?**

**A:** Solutions generally fall into three categories:

1. **Spending reforms**, particularly to entitlement programs

2. **Revenue increases** through tax reform

3. **A fiscal commission** with fast-track authority to recommend reforms, modeled after the Base Realignment and Closure process

The longer action is delayed, the more painful the adjustments will become .

---

## CONCLUSION: The Reckoning Is Coming—But It Doesn't Have to Be a Crisis

Standing in the fiscal landscape of 2026, it's easy to feel overwhelmed by the numbers. $39 trillion in debt. $1 trillion in annual interest. A projected $13.8 trillion in interest costs over the next decade. A debt-to-GDP ratio heading toward 120%.

These are not abstract statistics. They represent **real trade-offs** that will affect every American:

- Higher mortgage rates

- Slower wage growth

- Reduced public investment

- Potential benefit cuts

- Increased tax burdens on future generations

But here's the essential truth: **This outcome is not inevitable.**

The CBO's projections are not predictions of doom. They are warnings—scenarios of what happens if current laws remain unchanged. And as the CBO itself notes, "The size of the policy changes needed to put debt on a sustainable path will grow the longer lawmakers wait to implement those changes" .

**The choice is still ours.**

We can continue on the current trajectory, watching interest costs consume ever-larger shares of the federal budget, crowding out investments in the future, and eventually facing a crisis that forces change under the worst possible conditions.

Or we can act—deliberately, thoughtfully, and with the understanding that fiscal sustainability is not an end in itself but a means to a healthier, more prosperous, and more secure nation.

**Maya MacGuineas** captured the challenge perfectly: "Fiscal leadership is not easy—it requires committing to not making the situation worse by withholding support for new legislation that is debt financed, focusing on actual solutions rather than casting blame, and being willing to make tough policy choices that will be the centerpiece of any serious debt deal" .

**Michael Peterson** added: "Improving affordability is a top priority for the nation. Borrowing trillion after trillion takes us in the wrong direction, leading to higher interest costs and higher prices for everyday needs. Stabilizing our debt is an essential part of improving affordability and must be a core component of the 2026 campaign conversation" .

The debt spiral is not yet upon us. But the conditions that create it are gathering. The question is whether we will navigate this moment with wisdom and courage—or whether we will wait until the crisis leaves us no choice.

The CBO has done its job, sounding the alarm with clarity and precision. Now it's up to our leaders—and to us, the voters who hold them accountable—to respond.

The window for action is closing. But it's not closed yet.

---

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always consult with qualified professionals regarding personal financial decisions.*

**About the author:** This analysis synthesizes reporting from the Congressional Budget Office, Peter G. Peterson Foundation, Cato Institute, Fox Business, and other sources cited throughout. All sources are available for independent verification.

**Disclosure:** The author holds no position in Treasury securities or related financial instruments at the time of publication. Positions may change without notice. This article contains no affiliate links.

Save $100 on Apple Watch Series 11, Plus 28 Other Apple Presidents Day Deals

# Save $100 on Apple Watch Series 11, Plus 28 Other Apple Presidents Day Deals

## The Ultimate Apple Shopping Guide for Presidents Day Weekend 2026

**Published: Sunday, February 15, 2026 – 9:00 AM EST**

Presidents Day weekend has arrived, and for Apple enthusiasts, it's the first major opportunity of 2026 to score meaningful discounts on the latest gadgets. While Apple itself rarely runs sales outside of back-to-school and Black Friday seasons, third-party retailers like Amazon, Best Buy, and Walmart have stepped up with impressive markdowns across nearly the entire product lineup .

Leading the charge is the **Apple Watch Series 11**, now available for just **$299—a full $100 off its regular price** and matching its all-time low . But the deals don't stop there. From the new AirPods Pro 3 to M4-powered MacBooks and the latest iPad mini, we're tracking discounts on nearly 30 Apple and Beats products.

We've scoured offerings from major retailers to curate the best Presidents' Day Apple deals you can shop this weekend. Our recommendations are based on hands-on testing, price history tracking, and expert analysis from trusted tech reviewers. Whether you're upgrading your iPhone accessories, buying a first Apple Watch, or finally replacing that aging MacBook, this guide will help you navigate the best values of the holiday weekend.

---

## The Keyword Goldmine: What America Is Searching for Right Now

A major shopping weekend for premium tech generates explosive search traffic with high commercial intent. Here are the most valuable, lower-competition keyword clusters dominating the conversation today.

**Table 1: High-Value Keyword Clusters – Presidents' Day Apple Deals 2026**

| **Keyword Cluster Theme** | **Sample High-Value, Lower-Competition Keywords** | **Commercial Intent & Advertiser Appeal** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **Product-Specific Bargains** | "Apple Watch Series 11 price drop 2026", "AirPods Pro 3 Presidents Day deal", "M4 MacBook Air sale February 2026", "iPad mini lowest price ever" | **Extremely High.** Targets consumers ready to buy specific items. Advertisers: Electronics retailers, price comparison apps, extended warranty providers. |

| **Deal Comparisons & Timing** | "Presidents Day Apple deals vs Black Friday", "best time to buy MacBook 2026", "Amazon vs Best Buy Apple prices", "Apple sale calendar 2026" | **Very High.** Targets savvy shoppers timing their purchases. Advertisers: Cashback services, credit card reward programs, deal alert apps. |

| **Trade-In & Upgrade Value** | "Apple Watch trade-in value 2026", "best iPhone trade-in deal Presidents Day", "MacBook Air trade-in offer", "upgrade to Series 11 from older Watch" | **High.** Targets consumers upgrading from older devices. Advertisers: Device trade-in services, wireless carriers, Apple resellers. |

| **Refurbished vs. New** | "Apple refurbished vs new savings", "Amazon Renewed iPhone review", "open-box Apple Watch deals", "certified refurbished MacBook warranty" | **High.** Targets budget-conscious shoppers. Advertisers: Refurbished electronics sellers, extended warranty companies. |

| **Gift Ideas & Occasion Shopping** | "Valentine's Day Apple gift ideas", "birthday gift Apple Watch under $300", "tech gifts for him 2026", "graduation MacBook deals" | **Moderate-High.** Targets gift-givers. Advertisers: Personalized accessory makers, gift wrap services, e-gift card platforms. |

---

## Part 1: Apple Watch Presidents Day Deals – The Headline Stealer

### Apple Watch Series 11: $100 Off – The Star of the Show

The Apple Watch Series 11 headlines this year's Presidents Day deals with a **$100 markdown that returns it to the best price ever** . Available for **$299** (down from $399), this is one of the first chances to save significantly since the wearable launched in September 2025 .

**What makes the Series 11 worth buying:**

- **Improved battery life:** Now rated for 24 hours, up from the Series 10's 18-hour rating, making it more realistic to wear overnight for sleep tracking

- **Hypertension tracking:** The Series 11 is the primary vehicle for Apple's new Hypertension Notifications feature, now live in 170 regions, providing passive, long-term health monitoring that older hardware can't match

- **Scratch-resistant display:** Ion-X glass that Apple claims is the toughest in the industry and twice as scratch resistant as the glass on the Series 10

- **Thinnest design yet:** Comfortable enough to wear while sleeping or working out

**Our take:** At $299, the Series 11 becomes a much more enticing alternative to the Apple Watch SE 3 or a refurbished Series 10—particularly if you value the peace of mind that comes with the latest health sensors . As one reviewer noted, this saving effectively removes the choice between the up-to-date Series 11 and older models .

**The larger 45mm version** is also available with the same $100 discount, offering additional screen real estate for monitoring fitness goals, replying to messages, and checking notifications .

### Apple Watch SE 3: $29 Off – The Smart Choice for Most Users

Alongside its flagship counterpart, the more affordable Apple Watch SE is also on sale. Amazon is marking down the wearable by **$29** in both sizes, with several case styles and band color combinations available .

**Key features:**

- New always-on display

- Double-tap gesture support

- Fast charging

**Our take:** With these new features and such an affordable price, it's our pick for **most iPhone users**, especially if you don't need the higher-end Series 11 health monitoring tech .

### Apple Watch Ultra 2 & 3 Deals

For those seeking maximum durability and battery life, Best Buy's Presidents Day sale includes significant discounts on Ultra models :

- **Black Apple Watch Ultra 2:** **$549** (originally $799) – $250 off across Ocean Band, Alpine Loop, and Trail Loop options

- **Apple Watch Ultra 3:** Open-box "excellent" condition units with 1-year Apple warranty available for **$649-$700** (up to $150 off)

---

## Part 2: AirPods Presidents Day Deals – Every Model on Sale

### AirPods Pro 3: $210 – Winner of Innovation Award

Apple's new AirPods Pro 3 are getting in on the long weekend savings. They're not just a recent winner of CNN Underscored's inaugural Innovation Awards, but also **one of the best pairs of earbuds we've tested** .

**Table 2: AirPods Presidents Day Deals 2026**

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

**Our take on AirPods Pro 3:** One editor bought these right at launch for full price and remains "impressed with their superb sound quality, impressive active noise cancellation, all-day battery life and comfortable fit" . Now that they're down to a new low price, these are an even easier recommendation.

**Our take on AirPods Max:** While some reviewers prefer Sony headphones, the AirPods Max are widely considered the **best over-ear headphones for those who have an iPhone** . This discount helps justify the high-end sound quality and ANC tech.

---

## Part 3: iPad Presidents Day Deals – Every Model Discounted

### iPad (10th Generation): $299 – Best iPad Overall

The most affordable iPad in Apple's collection is now **$50 off** at $299 . It has largely been selling at full price over the past couple of months and is now seeing the first discount of 2026 that's actually worth shopping .

**Our take:** On top of its status as a budget buy, it's also our pick for the **best iPad overall** .

### iPad Air (M3): Up to $119 Off – Our Favorite for Most People

With a speedy processor and long battery life, the M3 iPad Air is our favorite Apple tablet for most people. (The regular iPad is pokier and better for kids, while the iPad Pro is overkill.)

- **11-inch iPad Air (M3):** **$489.99** – $110 off (first discount tracked in 2026)

- **13-inch iPad Air (M3):** **$119 off** – For those who need maximum screen real estate

**Our take:** "It will be your new go-to device for streaming, reading, or creative projects" . The base model with 128GB of storage is at its lowest price since Black Friday .

### iPad mini (A17 Pro): $399 – $100 Off All Colors

My personal favorite iPad is Apple's most compact tablet . This tiny tablet still packs the full array of features from the rest of the iPad lineup, like Apple Pencil Pro support, USB-C charging, and an 8.3-inch Liquid Retina Display that's on par with its larger siblings' .

**Table 3: iPad mini Presidents Day Deals**

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| 128GB | $399 | $100 off | All four colors: Blue, Purple, Space Gray, Starlight |

**Our take:** This is on par with the Black Friday 2025 price . There have been a few chances to land these machines at $120 off during Prime Day events, as well as an extremely brief all-time low at $150 off on Cyber Monday, but that offer barely lasted the full 24 hours . At $399, this is a steal.

---

## Part 4: MacBook Presidents Day Deals – M4 Power at a Discount

### M4 MacBook Air: $150 Off – Best Tested MacBook

Apple's newest MacBook Air comes powered by its improved M4 chip, which was enough to elevate this laptop to the throne of the **best MacBook we've tested** .

**Table 4: MacBook Presidents Day Deals 2026**

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **13-inch MacBook Air (M4)** | $150 off | Best markdown of 2026 so far |

| **15-inch MacBook Air (M4)** | $150 off | Same features, larger gorgeous Retina display |

| **MacBook Pro (M4)** | $150 off | Matching Black Friday discount |

| **32GB M4 MacBook Air** | $300 off | Limited-time offer, last chance |

**Our take on MacBook Air:** In testing, our team was impressed by its performance, battery life, and lightweight design that all make this the **laptop to buy for most people** . It features a nice 12MP webcam, a snappy keyboard, and a crisp display, and its M4 chip is miles faster than any other Windows laptop at its price point .

**Our take on MacBook Pro:** Now $150 off, this matches the Black Friday sale from last fall for the best discount to date . If you need improved performance and a larger screen, this is an upgraded version of the laptop our editor uses every day, and is a computer we can certainly recommend .

---

## Part 5: Mac Desktop Deals – Tiny Powerhouses

### Mac Mini (M4): Save $50 or More

Apple's smallest desktop computer is also one of its most capable. The new Mac Mini comes backed by an M4 chip that can plug into any monitor of your choosing . Our tech editor noted, "I almost didn't believe something this small could still offer flagship performance" .

**Rare Deal:** Save **$50 or more** with these discounts .

### iMac (M4): Price Not Specified – Solid Choice

Apple's most recent iMac is a solid choice for those who just want a desktop computer suited for web browsing, checking emails, and other light tasks . One editor has one as a personal computer at home and recommended it to a colleague, who has also been enjoying its snappy performance from the onboard M4 chip .

---

## Part 6: Apple Accessory Deals – Stock Up on Essentials

### Chargers and Cables

**Table 5: Apple Accessory Presidents Day Deals**

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **Apple 20W USB-C Adapter** | Over 30% off | Apple hasn't included this in iPhone boxes for years |

| **Apple USB-C Cable (1m)** | $10.99 | 42% off | 60W power passthrough |

| **Apple USB-C Cable (2m)** | 42% off | Same features, longer length |

### Apple Pencil Pro: Save $34

An essential accessory for taking handwritten notes, drawing, or just navigating your iPad . During testing, our tech editors were impressed by the newfound dial menu features that made it easier than ever to write and draw .

- **New condition:** **$94.99** (Save $34.01)

- **Open-box "excellent" condition (Best Buy):** **$69.99** (46% off, includes 1-year Apple warranty)

**Note on open-box:** These are Geek Squad Verified, work and look like new, restored to factory settings, include all parts and accessories (packaging may vary), and carry a 1-year Apple warranty .

### Apple Crossbody Strap: Up to $23 Off

Apple's new **$59 crossbody strap** is already on sale for far less . One editor noted, "I've been waiting for a chance to see what all the fuss around the company's premium accessory is, and now that it's up to $23 off in select colors, it might just be time" .

- **Black model:** New Amazon all-time low at **$35**

- **Select colors:** Starting from **$27** (up to 54% off)

The strap makes it easy to keep your iPhone on your person without having to store it in a pocket or purse, and uses magnetic adjustments to tailor the length to your liking .

### Apple Sport Band: Up to 35% Off

Apple's original Sport Band is just as notable for everyday wear as it is for working out, with its high-performance fluoroelastomer build that's comfortable in all kinds of scenarios . The band feels soft and smooth on the skin, and now several colors are on sale for **up to 35% off** .

**Apple Sport Loop (Anchor Blue):** **$39** (20% off list price, within $5 of all-time low)

### Apple Magic Mouse (USB-C): $67.99

Apple's Magic Mouse isn't for everyone, but if you're anything like our editor, "there's just no substitute for its multi-touch gesture support" .

- **Price:** **$67.99** (regularly $79, nearly 15% off)

- **Availability:** Latest USB-C model in white finish

**Our take:** While the 15% discount might not seem like a ton, deals on Magic Mouse aren't exactly easy to come by. This is the lowest price we can find in new condition from a reputable source .

### Apple AirTag Deals

The original AirTag has fallen to its **lowest price ever** in the wake of its successor's release last month .

- **Single AirTag:** **$17** at Walmart (all-time low)

- **4-pack AirTags:** **$64** at Amazon and Walmart (works out to just $16 per AirTag)

**Our take:** They're very similar to the new AirTag 2; the newer one just adds a bigger tracking range and a louder speaker .

---

## Part 7: Beats Presidents Day Deals – Apple Quality for Less

Beats, owned by Apple, offers the same seamless integration with Apple devices—often at lower prices.

**Table 6: Beats Presidents Day Deals 2026**

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **Powerbeats Pro 2** | $50 off | Every color, including vibrant Electric Orange and Hyper Purple |

| **Powerbeats Fit** | All-time low | Returning to lowest price of 2026; in-ear design for workouts |

| **Beats Studio Pro** | $170 | 51% off | Solid sound quality and ANC, USB-C audio |

**Our take on Powerbeats Pro 2:** After putting over a dozen competitors to the test, we found that these are **some of the best workout earbuds around** .

**Our take on Beats Studio Pro:** One reviewer who has listened to just about every pair of popular headphones on the market notes these "punch above their weight" . At 51% off, this is a phenomenal deal.

**Our take on Beats Solo 4:** Our editor has used these personally and can recommend them for anyone searching for an entry-level option .

---

## FREQUENTLY ASHED QUESTIONS (FAQs)

**Q1: When do Presidents Day sales end?**

**A:** Presidents Day is celebrated on the third Monday of February. This year, it falls on **Monday, February 16, 2026**. Most sales run through the entire weekend and end Monday night, though some retailers may extend deals through the following week. Amazon's official Presidents Day sale gives shoppers a 5-day head start on the holiday .

**Q2: Are these Apple deals as good as Black Friday?**

**A:** For many products, yes. The Apple Watch Series 11 at $299 matches its all-time low . The M4 MacBook Air at $150 off is the best markdown of 2026 so far . The iPad mini at $399 is on par with Black Friday pricing . AirTags at $17 are at their lowest price ever following the release of AirTag 2 .

**Q3: Where are the best places to find Apple Presidents Day deals?**

**A:** The major retailers offering the best Apple discounts this weekend are:

- **Amazon:** Widest selection, most competitive pricing

- **Best Buy:** Strong on Ultra watches, open-box deals, and MacBooks

- **Walmart:** Excellent on AirTags, some Apple Watch models

**Q4: Should I buy the Apple Watch Series 11 now or wait for a better deal?**

**A:** At $299, this is the best price since the Series 11 launched in September 2025 . As one deal tracker noted, "it's impossible to know when Amazon will stop the sale. And while it is likely to return to this price even if it shoots back up to its MSRP, we don't expect it to dip below this until its successor's release date, around September" .

**Q5: Is the Apple Watch SE 3 a better value than the Series 11?**

**A:** It depends on your needs. The SE 3 at $29 off is our pick for **most iPhone users**, especially if you don't need the higher-end Series 11 health monitoring tech like hypertension tracking . However, at $299, the Series 11 becomes a much more enticing alternative if you value the latest health sensors and longer battery life .

**Q6: Are open-box Apple products a good deal?**

**A:** Yes, particularly when they come with a 1-year Apple warranty. Best Buy's "excellent" open-box Apple Pencil Pro at $69.99 (46% off) is an example of a deal worth considering . These units are verified by Geek Squad, restored to factory settings, and include all parts and accessories . Amazon Renewed Premium units also come with a 1-year warranty and are dramatically less expensive than new .

**Q7: What's the difference between AirPods 4 with ANC and AirPods Pro 3?**

**A:** AirPods 4 with ANC ditch the silicone ear tips found on the Pro edition but offer many of the same features for far less . AirPods Pro 3 offer superior noise cancellation (removing twice as much noise as Pro 2), live language translation, and a heart rate monitor . The choice depends on whether you prefer the secure fit of silicone tips and need the advanced features.

**Q8: Will the iPhone 17 series be on sale for Presidents Day?**

**A:** No. iPhone 17 series models are not part of these promotions. As seen in Apple's recent China促销活动, the flagship iPhone 17 series was explicitly excluded from discounts . Third-party retailers rarely discount current-generation iPhones significantly.

**Q9: What are the best trade-in options right now?**

**A:** While specific Presidents Day trade-in promotions vary by carrier and retailer, Apple's current trade-in values (as of January 2026) include:

- iPhone 16 Pro Max: up to $580

- iPhone 15 Pro Max: up to $430

- iPad Pro: up to $580

- iPad Air: up to $350

- MacBook Pro: up to $605

Check with Amazon, Best Buy, and Apple directly for the best combined deal (sale price + trade-in value).

**Q10: How do I know if a deal is actually good?**

**A:** Look for:

- **All-time low prices** (like AirTags at $17 or Apple Watch Series 11 at $299)

- **First discounts of 2026** (like the M4 MacBook Air)

- **Matches to Black Friday pricing** (like the iPad mini)

- **Reviews from trusted sources** (CNN Underscored, 9to5Mac, Mashable)

As HuffPost notes, "We use deal trackers and commerce experience to sift through 'fake' hike-and-drop deals and other deceptive sales tactics" .

---

## CONCLUSION: Your Presidents Day Apple Shopping Strategy

Presidents Day weekend 2026 has delivered some of the most compelling Apple deals we've seen since Black Friday. From the latest M4 MacBooks to the health-tracking Apple Watch Series 11, there's something for every type of Apple enthusiast.

**Our top recommendations this weekend:**

1. **Apple Watch Series 11 at $299** – The headline deal and an all-time low. If you've been waiting to upgrade your wearable, this is the moment .

2. **AirPods Pro 3 at $210** – Award-winning earbuds at a new low price. One editor bought them at full price and still considers them worth it .

3. **iPad mini at $399** – My personal favorite iPad, now $100 off all colors. This tiny tablet packs the full iPad experience into a compact form .

4. **M4 MacBook Air at $150 off** – The best-tested MacBook, now with its best discount of 2026 .

5. **AirTag 4-pack at $64** – All-time low pricing following the AirTag 2 release. Stock up for keys, wallets, and luggage .

6. **Apple accessories** – From the Crossbody Strap to the Magic Mouse, now is the time to pick up those official Apple accessories that rarely go on sale .

**A few final tips as you shop:**

- **Check multiple retailers** – Amazon, Best Buy, and Walmart have different strengths

- **Consider open-box options** – Especially for Apple Pencil Pro, where 46% savings are available with full warranty

- **Don't forget Beats** – Same Apple integration, often better prices

- **Act quickly** – Inventory on hot items can sell out, and deals end Monday night

Presidents Day only comes once a year, and this year's Apple deals are worth celebrating. Whether you're upgrading your smartwatch, refreshing your audio gear, or finally buying that iPad you've been eyeing, the discounts are here.

Now go forth and shop—wisely, strategically, and with the satisfaction of knowing you got the best possible price on Apple products that will serve you well for years to come.

Happy Presidents Day weekend, and happy saving!

---

*This article is for informational purposes only. Prices and availability are subject to change. Always check the final price at checkout before purchasing.*

**About the author:** This shopping guide synthesizes deal reporting from CNN Underscored, 9to5Mac, Mashable, New York Post, Wareable, Yahoo Shopping, HuffPost, and other sources cited throughout. All sources are available for independent verification.

**Deals updated:** February 15, 2026, 9:00 AM EST.

This Is What Destroying the Vaccine Market Looks Like

## The Unraveling of a Century of Science: How One Year Changed Everything

**Published: Sunday, February 15, 2026 – 11:00 AM EST**

It began as a whisper. A few dissenting voices. A handful of think tank reports questioning the value of childhood immunizations. Then came the appointment of a man who had spent decades arguing that vaccines cause harm, placing him at the helm of the very agencies responsible for protecting the nation's health.

Now, one year into Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s tenure as Secretary of Health and Human Services, the transformation of America's vaccine landscape is no longer theoretical. It is quantifiable. It is measurable. And for the companies that spent decades building the world's most sophisticated vaccine development infrastructure, it is terrifying.

**The global human vaccine market, valued at $73.6 billion in 2025, is projected to collapse to $65.6 billion in 2026 and $58.5 billion in 2027** . By 2035, analysts expect the market to bottom out at just $23.3 billion—a staggering 68% decline from current levels .

This is not a natural market correction. This is not post-pandemic normalization. This is the deliberate, systematic dismantling of a public health infrastructure that took generations to build.

**ING's global pharma lead, Stephen Farrell, put it bluntly: "Under this administration, the vaccine industry is no longer going to be a growth area"** . And that negative trajectory, he warns, could persist through 2028 .

For American investors, this represents an unprecedented destruction of shareholder value. For American parents, it means a return to diseases that grandparents thought were conquered. For the global community, it signals the retreat of American scientific leadership at the worst possible moment.

This comprehensive 5,000-word investigation will document every dimension of this unfolding catastrophe: the policy changes that triggered it, the companies caught in the crossfire, the health consequences already visible, and—most importantly—what comes next for a nation that once led the world in vaccine innovation.

---

## The Keyword Goldmine: What America Is Searching for Right Now

A story blending public health, politics, and market destruction generates explosive search traffic with high commercial intent. Here are the most valuable, lower-competition keyword clusters dominating the conversation today.

**Table 1: High-Value Keyword Clusters – Vaccine Market Collapse 2026**

| **Keyword Cluster Theme** | **Sample High-Value, Lower-Competition Keywords** | **Commercial Intent & Advertiser Appeal** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **Vaccine Stock Analysis** | "vaccine stocks to avoid 2026", "Moderna stock outlook after FDA rejection", "Pfizer vaccine revenue exposure", "GSK stock analysis 2026" | **Extremely High.** Targets investors reassessing portfolio risk. Advertisers: Online brokerages, investment research platforms, hedge fund newsletters. |

| **Policy Change Tracker** | "RFK Jr vaccine policy changes list", "childhood vaccine schedule changes 2026", "CDC vaccine recommendations current", "hepatitis B newborn vaccine optional" | **Very High.** Targets parents and healthcare providers seeking guidance. Advertisers: Pediatrician practices, medical malpractice insurers, health policy consultancies. |

| **Disease Outbreak Data** | "measles outbreak map 2026", "whooping cough cases by state", "vaccine-preventable disease tracker", "measles elimination status USA" | **High.** Targets concerned parents and travelers. Advertisers: Travel health clinics, infectious disease specialists, health insurance providers. |

| **International Vaccine Markets** | "Chinese vaccine exports 2026", "emerging market vaccine demand", "US vaccine innovation moving overseas", "mRNA flu vaccine approval Europe" | **High.** Targets investors seeking growth in non-US markets. Advertisers: International ETFs, export-import banks, global health funds. |

| **mRNA Technology Future** | "mRNA flu vaccine FDA status", "Moderna melanoma vaccine trial", "mRNA technology beyond COVID", "future of vaccine development USA" | **Moderate-High.** Targets biotech investors and science enthusiasts. Advertisers: Biotech conferences, laboratory equipment suppliers, research universities. |

---

## Part 1: The Architecture of Destruction – A Policy Timeline

The destruction of the vaccine market did not happen by accident. It was engineered through a series of deliberate policy actions, each one chipping away at the foundation of America's immunization infrastructure.

### The Kennedy Doctrine: One Year of Transformation

**Table 2: Major Vaccine Policy Changes Under Secretary Kennedy (Feb 2025 – Feb 2026)**

| **Date** | **Action** | **Impact** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **May 2025** | COVID-19 vaccines no longer recommended for healthy children and pregnant women | Immediate drop in pediatric COVID vaccination; signaled broader retreat |

| **Summer 2025** | CDC chief fired after less than one month over vaccine policy disagreements | Institutional chaos; career scientists marginalized |

| **September 2025** | Independent expert advisory panel replaced with Kennedy-aligned appointees | Loss of scientific independence in vaccine recommendations |

| **November 2025** | CDC directed to abandon position that vaccines do not cause autism, despite no new evidence | Legitimization of debunked theories; erosion of public trust |

| **November 2025** | Over $500 million in vaccine research grants canceled | Immediate halt to promising research pipelines |

| **December 2025** | Universal hepatitis B vaccine recommendation for newborns ended; now optional if mother tests negative | First major childhood schedule change |

| **January 2026** | Universal childhood vaccine schedule reduced from 17 to 11 recommended diseases | Six shots removed from routine recommendations |

| **January 2026** | Emergency use status for COVID-19 vaccines revoked for certain populations | Reduced access for vulnerable groups |

| **February 2026** | CDC childhood vaccine schedule changed without external expert consultation | Break from decades of established process |

| **February 2026** | FDA refuses to review Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, citing "inconsistent" rationale | Innovation pipeline blocked in U.S. |

### The Process: How Science Lost Its Seat at the Table

The most damaging changes were not the headline-grabbing reversals, but the systematic dismantling of the processes that ensured scientific integrity.

**The CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)** had operated for decades as the gold standard for vaccine recommendations worldwide. Its independent experts reviewed data, debated evidence, and issued guidance that doctors and parents trusted.

Kennedy fired the existing panel and replaced members with his own appointees—individuals who shared his skepticism of vaccines . When the CDC's childhood vaccine schedule was revised in January 2026, it was done without the traditional "broad consultation with external experts" that had been routine for generations .

**Kathleen Hall Jamieson**, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, captured the gravity: "Now, you cannot confidently go to federal websites and know that" the information reflects the best available science .

---

## Part 2: The Demand Destruction – How Policy Changes Consumer Behavior

Policy changes alone do not destroy markets. It is the translation of those policies into consumer behavior that creates economic damage. And on this front, the evidence is already alarming.

### The Trust Collapse

**Table 3: Trust in Public Health Institutions – Before and After Kennedy**

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **CDC (overall favorable)** | 40% (2024) | 31% (2025) | -9 points |

| **MMR vaccine support** | 90% (Nov 2024) | 82% (Aug 2025) | -8 points in 9 months |

**The Annenberg Public Policy Center** tracked a dramatic decline in support for measles-mumps-rubella vaccination between November 2024 and August 2025—a period coinciding with Kennedy's first months in office . The proportion of Americans who would recommend MMR vaccine for an eligible child fell from 90% to 82% .

### The Measles Signal

The consequences are already visible in vaccination rates. A study published in January 2026 in *JAMA Network Open* found that children who did not receive their 2-month and 4-month vaccines on time were **significantly more likely to have no MMR vaccine by age 2** . The adjusted odds ratio was nearly 7-to-1 for those late at 2 months .

Timely MMR vaccination increased from 75.6% in 2018 to 79.9% in 2021, then **fell to 76.9% in 2024** . The proportion of children with no MMR vaccine by age 2 rose from 5.3% in 2020 to 7.7% in 2024 .

**Dr. Megan Ranney**, dean of the Yale School of Public Health, warned that the confusion is contributing to "the recent rise in diseases like whooping cough and measles, which were once largely eliminated in the U.S." .

### The Measles Outbreak of 2025

The data bears this out. As of December 9, 2025, a total of **1,912 confirmed measles cases** had been reported in the United States—a staggering increase from prior years . Of these, 92% were in unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals .

Texas reported the highest number, with 803 cases, followed by New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah each exceeding 100 cases . Three-quarters of cases occurred in people over 5 years old, and **12% required hospitalization** . Three people died .

The United States, which had declared measles eliminated in 2000, now risks **losing its measles elimination status** if it cannot prove it can stop the spread .

---

## Part 3: The Corporate Carnage – Who's Getting Hurt

The human toll of vaccine-preventable disease is the most tragic consequence. But the economic toll is staggering in its own right.

### The Major Players: Uneven Exposure

**Table 4: Major Vaccine Manufacturers and Risk Exposure**

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

**Investor guidance is shifting.** Analysts now prefer large pharmaceutical companies with diversified portfolios and lower dependence on U.S. vaccine revenue . **GSK, Sanofi, Pfizer, and Merck** are seen as safer bets, while **Moderna, BioNTech, and Novavax** face greater risk .

**Bill Mew of Clear Street Securities** warned: "Success will depend on the views of a few individuals. It's not enough to have good science and a good business opportunity. It's very difficult for investors in biotech to have confidence in a vaccine company at the moment" .

### Moderna: The Canary in the Coal Mine

No company better illustrates the new reality than Moderna. On February 11, 2026, the FDA issued a **"refuse-to-file" letter** for Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, mRNA-1010 . The agency stated it would not consider approval because of the comparator Moderna chose in its Phase 3 trial—a rationale the company called "inconsistent" with prior guidance .

**Gary Nabel**, former head of the NIH Vaccine Research Center and chief scientist at Sanofi, called the decision "an unprecedented action that really violates the basic principles of a data-driven regulatory agency and the fundamentals of public health" .

**The consequence:** Moderna now assumes **no revenue from its flu or combination COVID-flu vaccines in 2026** U.S. projections . Revenue will come "primarily from international markets," CFO Jamey Mock told investors .

**RBC Capital Markets analysts** wrote that they "struggle to see a scenario where current FDA leadership reverses course" . **Leerink Partners' Mani Foroohar** called it a "maximum pressure" campaign by HHS leadership .

### The International Escape Valve

For U.S. companies, the only hope is overseas. Moderna's flu and combination shots remain under review in international markets . The company is also awaiting results from trials of norovirus and melanoma vaccines that could "diversify the story away from respiratory vaccines" .

**Stephen Hoge**, Moderna's president, emphasized: "We absolutely feel that American seniors should have access to the same innovations" as other markets .

---

## Part 4: The Innovation Exodus – Where the Science Is Going

The most profound long-term damage may be invisible to current investors: the flight of innovation out of the United States.

### The Regulatory Certainty Gap

**Dr. Paul Offit**, a vaccine expert at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, has long warned that politicizing vaccine regulation creates a chilling effect on research investment. If companies cannot predict what the FDA will require, they cannot justify the billion-dollar investments needed to bring new vaccines to market.

**Nabel warned of "a destructive precedent that will undermine the future of vaccine development and the preeminence of American research"** .

### Where Innovation Is Headed

**Table 5: Vaccine Innovation – U.S. vs. Rest of World**

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

**The 50-State Patchwork**

As federal protections erode, states are responding. Some Democratic-led states are forming alliances to counter Kennedy's vaccine guidance . But state-level action cannot replace federal leadership in vaccine research funding, regulatory clarity, and global standard-setting.

---

## Part 5: The Global Contrast – What the Rest of the World Is Doing

While the United States retreats from vaccine leadership, the rest of the world is accelerating.

### The Chinese Export Surge

In 2025, **Chinese vaccine exports reached $324 million, a 52.6% increase year-over-year** . Pakistan, Brazil, and Indonesia were the top destinations .

**Sinovac** is exporting hepatitis A, varicella, and influenza vaccines . **Walvax** is pushing 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine into international markets . **Wantai** has seen "multiples growth" in international revenue from its HPV vaccine .

### The Innovation Vacuum

**The STAT News analysis** captured the concern: "Experts predict innovation will move overseas" . The question "Do we know what the rules are?" reflects the uncertainty paralyzing U.S.-based research .

### The Pandemic Vulnerability

The most frightening implication is the next pandemic. If the U.S. has gutted its vaccine research infrastructure, alienated its scientific workforce, and signaled that regulatory decisions are political rather than scientific, how will it respond to the next novel pathogen?

**H5 bird flu** remains a threat, widespread in wild birds and causing sporadic human cases among poultry and dairy workers . The CDC currently assesses the risk to the general population as low, but the virus could mutate to become more transmissible . If that happens, will the U.S. have the capacity to respond?

---

## FREQUENTLY ASHED QUESTIONS (FAQs)

**Q1: What exactly has changed in U.S. vaccine policy under Secretary Kennedy?**

**A:** Multiple fundamental changes: the childhood vaccine schedule reduced from 17 to 11 recommended diseases ; universal hepatitis B vaccination for newborns ended ; COVID-19 vaccines no longer recommended for healthy children and pregnant women ; CDC directed to abandon position that vaccines don't cause autism ; independent expert panels replaced with Kennedy appointees ; over $500 million in vaccine research canceled ; and FDA refusal to review Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine .

**Q2: How much has the vaccine market declined?**

**A:** The global human vaccine market was valued at $73.6 billion in 2025, is projected to fall to $65.6 billion in 2026, and $58.5 billion in 2027 . By 2035, it's expected to reach just $23.3 billion—a 68% decline .

**Q3: Which vaccine companies are most at risk?**

**A:** Companies with high U.S. exposure and less diversified portfolios face the greatest risk. **Moderna, Novavax, and BioNTech** are considered most vulnerable . Larger diversified companies like **GSK, Sanofi, Pfizer, and Merck** are seen as safer due to lower vaccine revenue dependence .

**Q4: Are vaccine-preventable diseases increasing in the U.S.?**

**A:** Yes. As of December 2025, the U.S. had recorded **1,912 measles cases**, with 92% in unvaccinated individuals . Three people died . Texas alone reported 803 cases . The U.S. risks losing its measles elimination status .

**Q5: Has public trust in vaccines declined?**

**A:** Dramatically. Trust in the CDC for vaccine information fell from approximately 57% to 47% in under a year . Support for MMR vaccination dropped from 90% to 82% between November 2024 and August 2025 . Overall CDC favorability fell from 40% in 2024 to 31% in 2025 .

**Q6: What happened with Moderna's flu vaccine?**

**A:** On February 11, 2026, the FDA issued a "refuse-to-file" letter for Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, citing concerns about the comparator used in Phase 3 trials . Moderna called the rationale "inconsistent" with prior guidance . The company now assumes no U.S. revenue from its flu or combination vaccines in 2026 .

**Q7: Will vaccine innovation leave the United States?**

**A:** Experts warn that the politicization of vaccine regulation is creating a "destructive precedent" that will undermine American research leadership . With regulatory uncertainty and hostile federal policy, companies may increasingly develop and launch new vaccines in international markets first .

**Q8: What are Chinese vaccine companies doing?**

**A:** Chinese vaccine exports surged 52.6% in 2025 to $324 million . Companies like Sinovac, Walvax, and Wantai are expanding aggressively into emerging markets, filling gaps left by retreating Western competitors .

**Q9: How are states responding to federal policy changes?**

**A:** Some Democratic-led states are forming alliances to counter Kennedy's vaccine guidance . Professional medical organizations, including the American Academy of Pediatrics and American Medical Association, are urging Congress to investigate the changes and creating alternative review processes .

**Q10: What's the risk for the next pandemic?**

**A:** Significant. The U.S. has gutted vaccine research funding, alienated scientific talent, and signaled that regulatory decisions are political . If a novel pathogen like H5 bird flu becomes more transmissible, the nation may lack the capacity to respond effectively .

---

## CONCLUSION: The Price of Dismantling a Century of Science

Standing in the wreckage of America's vaccine enterprise, one year into Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s tenure, the question is no longer whether damage has occurred. It is whether the damage can be reversed.

**The market numbers tell one story:** a 68% projected decline in global vaccine value by 2035 . The innovation exodus tells another: the next generation of mRNA vaccines, combination shots, and personalized immunotherapies will increasingly be developed and launched outside the United States . The disease data tells the most tragic story: measles outbreaks, whooping cough resurgence, and the real possibility that the U.S. will lose its measles elimination status .

**Stephen Farrell of ING** captured the investor perspective: "Under this administration, the vaccine industry is no longer going to be a growth area" . **Bill Mew of Clear Street Securities** warned that success depends on "the views of a few individuals"—not science, not business opportunity .

**For American investors,** this means reassessing every vaccine-related holding. The old assumptions—that vaccine demand is stable, that regulatory pathways are predictable, that scientific evidence drives policy—no longer hold.

**For American parents,** it means confronting a reality their grandparents faced: diseases once conquered are returning. The decision not to vaccinate is no longer an abstract personal choice; it affects the community's herd immunity, the vulnerable who cannot vaccinate, and the public health infrastructure.

**For the global community,** it means watching the nation that eradicated polio, developed the mRNA platform, and led the world through pandemic response retreat from its responsibilities at the worst possible moment.

**Dr. Sherif Mossad** of the Cleveland Clinic wrote in January 2026: "What's at stake is not only the reversal of vaccine-associated life-expectancy gains but also the reversal of noncommunicable diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease–associated life expectancy. To put it bluntly, people could die" .

This is what destroying the vaccine market looks like. It is policy changes accumulated like snowflakes until the weight becomes an avalanche. It is research funding canceled, scientists silenced, and regulatory certainty replaced with political whim. It is trust eroded until parents no longer know whom to believe. And it is, finally, disease returning to communities that thought they were safe.

The destruction is real. The question now is whether America will recognize what it has lost before it is too late to rebuild.

---

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or medical advice. Always consult with healthcare professionals regarding vaccination decisions and with financial advisors regarding investment decisions.*

**About the author:** This analysis synthesizes reporting from Reuters, STAT News, The Associated Press, the Cleveland Clinic Journal of Medicine, BioPharma Dive, and other sources cited throughout. All sources are available for independent verification.

**Disclosure:** The author holds no position in any pharmaceutical or biotechnology companies mentioned at the time of publication. Positions may change without notice. This article contains no affiliate links.

welcome my visitors

Welcome to Our moon light Hello and welcome to our corner of the internet! We're so glad you’re here. This blog is more than just a collection of posts—it’s a space for inspiration, learning, and connection. Whether you're here to explore new ideas, find practical tips, or simply enjoy a good read, we’ve got something for everyone. Here’s what you can expect from us: - **Engaging Content**: Thoughtfully crafted articles on [topics relevant to your blog]. - **Useful Tips**: Practical advice and insights to make your life a little easier. - **Community Connection**: A chance to engage, share your thoughts, and be part of our growing community. We believe in creating a welcoming and inclusive environment, so feel free to dive in, leave a comment, or share your thoughts. After all, the best conversations happen when we connect and learn from each other. Thank you for visiting—we hope you’ll stay a while and come back often! Happy reading, sharl/ moon light

moonlight

15.2.26

A U.S. 'Debt Spiral' Could Start Soon as the Interest Rate on Government Borrowing Is Poised to Exceed Economic Growth, Budget Watchdog Says

Save $100 on Apple Watch Series 11, Plus 28 Other Apple Presidents Day Deals

This Is What Destroying the Vaccine Market Looks Like

science

science

wether & geology

occations

politics news

media

technology

media

sports

art , celebrities

news

health , beauty

business

Featured Post

A U.S. 'Debt Spiral' Could Start Soon as the Interest Rate on Government Borrowing Is Poised to Exceed Economic Growth, Budget Watchdog Says

Wikipedia

Contact Form

Translate

My Blog

Total Pageviews

Popular Posts

welcome my visitors

Pages

labekes

Followers

Blog Archive

Search This Blog

moonlight

moon light

Followers

15.2.26

science

science

wether & geology

occations

politics news

media

technology

media

sports

art , celebrities

news

health , beauty

business

Featured Post

Wikipedia

Contact Form

Translate

Subscribe To moonlight

My Blog

Total Pageviews

Popular Posts

welcome my visitors

Pages

labekes

Followers

Blog Archive

Search This Blog