California Sends Tesla a Message with Its New EV Rebate

 California Sends Tesla a Message with Its New EV Rebate

Every incentive comes with a message. There's the money, the part that shows up in your bank account. And there's the meaning underneath it—the quiet signal about who a government wants to help and who it would rather push to the back of the line.

California just sent a very loud message to Tesla.

On July 13, 2026, Governor Gavin Newsom signed **SB 168** into law, creating a new program called **MyFirstEV** that gives first-time electric vehicle buyers a **$3,500 instant rebate** at the dealership. The program is backed by $135.5 million in state funding, matched dollar-for-dollar by participating automakers, creating a combined pool of roughly **$270 million** in point-of-sale savings.

But read the fine print, and you'll find a rule that lifts Rivian and Lucid, caps Tesla, and lands like a message addressed to Austin, Texas.

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## How the Instant EV Rebate Works

MyFirstEV throws out the old model. California's previous Clean Vehicle Rebate Project made buyers apply and wait for a check. This one is a **point-of-sale discount**—eligible buyers walk into a participating dealership and drive out with the money already gone from the price.

Here are the core rules:

- **$3,500 off** a new EV priced under $50,000

- **$1,750 off** a used EV sold for under $25,000

- **First-time ZEV buyers only**—confirmed by buyer attestation

- **No income cap**—eligibility is gated by vehicle price, not household income

- **Curb weight limit** of 8,500 pounds, restricting it to light-duty passenger vehicles

- **California residents only**

The program goes live later this summer, with the California Air Resources Board expected to release full participation details next month.

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## The Headquarters Loophole That Boxes Out Tesla

Here is the part that turns a discount into a statement.

The $50,000 price cap **vanishes** for EVs built by California-headquartered, EV-only automakers—companies whose corporate management and staff were based in the state as of January 1, 2026.

That carve-out was written to protect California-based manufacturers and their workers. In practice, it benefits two companies:

- **Rivian**, with its engineering headquarters in Irvine

- **Lucid**, based in the San Francisco Bay Area

Their cheapest models—around $58,000 for Rivian and $71,000 for Lucid—sit well above the $50,000 cap that applies to everyone else. Yet they still qualify for the full $3,500 rebate.

**Tesla does not.**

The company moved its headquarters from California to Austin, Texas, in 2021. Under the new rules, it no longer counts as a California-based automaker. That means the price-cap exemption doesn't apply to Tesla, and only its sub-$50,000 configurations of the Model 3 and Model Y qualify. The Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X are out.

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## The Political Message: A Feud Made Policy

The framing is hard to miss given the ongoing feud between Newsom and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

The exemption rewards **where a company plants its headquarters flag**, not where it builds its cars—and Tesla still assembles hundreds of thousands of vehicles a year at its Fremont, California, factory.

Tesla accounted for almost **50% of California's new vehicle sales** last year, according to Reuters. Yet the exemption clause could shift market share toward in-state manufacturers.

The message is unmistakable: **if you leave California, don't expect California to treat you like you stayed.**

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## The Crisis That Spurred the Program

The MyFirstEV program arrives at a moment of crisis for California's EV market.

The $7,500 federal EV tax credit ended on September 30, 2025, when the One Big Beautiful Bill Act eliminated the incentive without a phaseout period. The market consequences were immediate and severe.

In the first quarter of 2026—the first full quarter without the federal incentive—California's zero-emission vehicle registrations **fell 40.2% year-over-year**, dropping from 95,520 units to 57,111. The state's ZEV market share collapsed from 21% in full-year 2025 to just 13.7%, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2021.

California has a statutory target of **35% ZEV market share** for the 2026 model year—a figure the market is not remotely approaching. SB 168 is the state's most direct response to that vacuum.

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## What This Means for Buyers

For California residents buying their first EV, the program offers a significant discount—but the rules determine who benefits most.

### Tesla Buyers

- **Model 3 RWD** at $42,490: **Qualifies** for full $3,500 rebate

- **Model 3 Long Range** at $47,490: **Qualifies**

- **Model Y** starting at $44,990: **Qualifies**

- **Model S, Model X, Cybertruck**: **Do not qualify** (exceed $50,000 cap)

### Rivian and Lucid Buyers

- **Rivian's cheapest model** (~$58,000): **Qualifies** due to headquarters exemption

- **Lucid's cheapest model** (~$71,000): **Qualifies** due to headquarters exemption

- **Rivian R2 crossover** (above $50,000): **Qualifies**

- **Lucid Gravity SUV** (above $50,000): **Qualifies**

### Other Qualifying Vehicles

Plenty of mainstream EVs land under the $50,000 cap, including the Chevy Blazer EV, Equinox EV, and Bolt, Toyota's bZ and C-HR crossovers, Hyundai's Ioniq 5, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Kia EV6, and Volkswagen ID.4.

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## The Investment Angle

For investors, the key question is whether the exemption tilts California's EV market—the largest in the U.S.—toward Lucid and Rivian at Tesla's expense.

- **Lucid shares** have gained 12% this year on optimism around the Gravity launch

- **Rivian** has risen 8% as it scales R2 production

- **Tesla** trades at 65 times forward earnings, a premium that reflects its dominant market position but also leaves it exposed to any shift in California's competitive dynamics

The program's $270 million allocation represents about **77,000 rebates** at the maximum $3,500 level, though the mix of new and used vehicle purchases will determine the actual count.

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## What Qualifies—and the Bigger $600 Million Package

The MyFirstEV rebate is the centerpiece of a broader **$600 million zero-emission vehicle package** in the 2026-27 state budget, funded through Cap-and-Invest revenue and smog-abatement fees.

Eligible vehicles must be:

- New battery-electric vehicles with an MSRP of **$50,000 or less** (unless exempted)

- Used EVs sold for **$25,000 or less**

- Light-duty passenger vehicles under **8,500 pounds**

- Purchased by a **California resident** who is a **first-time ZEV buyer**

The California Air Resources Board is still finalizing agreements with automakers and dealerships, with the program expected to launch later this summer.

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## The Legal Question: Will the Carve-Out Survive?

The headquarters provision has drawn as much attention as the rebate itself. Legislators built a legal escape hatch into the bill, anticipating that the carve-out might face a court challenge.

Critics argue that favoring California-headquartered automakers over Texas-headquartered Tesla could violate the Commerce Clause or discriminate against out-of-state companies. Tesla has not yet indicated whether it plans to challenge the provision.

But for now, the law stands—and the message is clear.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

### Q: Who qualifies for the California EV rebate?

A: Any California resident purchasing their first zero-emission vehicle. The buyer must attest that this is their first EV purchase. There is no income cap.

### Q: How much is the rebate?

A: $3,500 off a new EV priced under $50,000, or $1,750 off a used EV sold for under $25,000.

### Q: Does Tesla qualify?

A: Yes—but only the Model 3 and Model Y configurations priced under $50,000. The Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck do not qualify. Tesla does not qualify for the headquarters exemption because it moved to Texas.

### Q: Why do Rivian and Lucid qualify for higher-priced models?

A: The $50,000 price cap is waived for California-headquartered, EV-only automakers. Rivian and Lucid meet that definition; Tesla does not.

### Q: When does the program start?

A: The program is expected to launch later this summer, with CARB finalizing agreements with automakers and dealerships.

### Q: Is there an income limit?

A: No. Eligibility is gated by vehicle price, not household income.

### Q: Can I combine this with other incentives?

A: Possibly. California also offers additional EV incentives for low- to moderate-income residents through Access Clean California.

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## Conclusion: The Price of Leaving

California's new EV rebate is a masterclass in policy messaging. On the surface, it's a straightforward consumer incentive—$3,500 off your first electric car, no paperwork, no waiting. Underneath, it's a pointed reminder to any company that thinks it can leave the state without consequences.

The MyFirstEV program fills the gap left by the eliminated federal tax credit, giving first-time buyers a reason to go electric even as Washington retreats from climate policy. But its headquarters loophole ensures that the companies that stayed in California get a competitive advantage over the one that left.

For Tesla buyers, the message is mixed: the Model 3 and Model Y still qualify, but the higher-priced models don't. For Rivian and Lucid buyers, it's a windfall—a $3,500 discount on vehicles that otherwise wouldn't qualify.

For Elon Musk, it's a reminder that in politics, as in business, decisions have consequences. Leave California, and California might just leave you behind.

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## Disclaimer

**IMPORTANT:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The information contained herein is based on publicly available sources and reflects the author's understanding as of the publication date. The MyFirstEV program is a new state initiative, and final implementation details, including participating automakers and dealerships, have not yet been fully released. Eligibility requirements, rebate amounts, and program timelines are subject to change. You should consult with qualified professionals and verify all information directly with the California Air Resources Board or official state sources before making any purchasing decisions.

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*Published: July 15, 2026*

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**Tags:** California EV rebate, MyFirstEV, Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, Gavin Newsom, SB 168, electric vehicle incentive, EV tax credit, California ZEV rebate, point-of-sale rebate, EV market, California EV sales, zero-emission vehicle, EV policy

SK Hynix Shares Surge 13% as AI Optimism Ignites a Global Chip Stock Rally

 

SK Hynix Shares Surge 13% as AI Optimism Ignites a Global Chip Stock Rally

**Just days after a record Nasdaq debut and a gut-wrenching selloff, the AI memory king is back—and the bulls are roaring louder than ever.**

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## Introduction: The V-Shaped Recovery That Has Investors Buzzing

It was the kind of week that tests the mettle of even the most seasoned investors. Just four days ago, SK Hynix shares in Seoul plunged more than 15% in a single session—the worst drop since 1997—as the AI trade seemed to be unraveling. Investors who had piled into the stock ahead of its historic Nasdaq debut were taking profits, and the broader chip sector was caught in a violent correction.

On Wednesday, the narrative flipped completely.

Shares of SK Hynix jumped nearly **13%** in Seoul trading, leading a broad rally in South Korean semiconductor stocks. The surge was fueled by a powerful combination of factors: softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data that boosted global tech stocks, upbeat analyst views on AI memory demand, and a bullish initiation of coverage from Barclays. By midday, the stock was trading at **2,170,000 Korean won**, up 13.4% on the day.

The rally wasn't confined to SK Hynix. Samsung Electronics rose nearly 8%, while chip equipment maker Hanmi Semiconductor surged about 25% in early trading. The benchmark KOSPI index was up 7% as the semiconductor sector led a broad-based recovery.

For a stock that has already surged more than **300% year-to-date**—and more than **680% over the past 12 months**—the rebound is a powerful signal that the AI memory supercycle is far from over. But what's really driving this rally? And can it last?

---

## Why the Rally? Three Forces Behind the 13% Jump

### 1. The U.S. Inflation Catalyst: A "Goldilocks" Moment

The rally began across the Pacific. On Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index cooled more than expected in June, largely due to easing energy price pressures. The data sent U.S. tech stocks soaring, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posting solid gains.

For SK Hynix, the inflation news was a double gift. First, it boosted risk appetite across global markets, lifting tech stocks everywhere. Second, it reduced the odds of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes—a headwind that has been weighing on high-growth semiconductor stocks.

As one analyst put it, "The drop in headline U.S. inflation may well be reversed in July given the resumption of hostilities in the Gulf, but the first drop in monthly core CPI in years provided the spark the market needed."

### 2. Analyst Optimism: "Supply Shortages Set to Deepen"

Beyond the macro backdrop, analysts are growing increasingly bullish on SK Hynix's fundamental outlook. The key argument is simple: **supply shortages are set to deepen, not ease**.

Kim Sunwoo, a senior analyst at Meritz Securities, said suppliers of DRAM chips are currently meeting only about **75% to 80% of demand** as shortages intensify in the second half of 2026. That fulfillment rate could fall to the **60% range in 2027**, Kim warned. Even after excluding speculative orders, suppliers would still only meet around 70% of demand.

"With supply shortages set to deepen, memory prices and earnings are likely to continue improving, supporting a strong rebound in the share price," Kim said.

This view is supported by SK Hynix's own CEO. Reuters reported last week that Chief Executive Kwak Noh-jung expects the global memory industry to face its **worst-ever supply shortage in 2027**, with demand continuing to exceed the company's production capacity **well beyond 2030** despite aggressive expansion.

### 3. Barclays' Bullish Call: A $330 Price Target

Adding fuel to the fire, Barclays initiated research coverage on SK Hynix's newly listed American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) with an **"overweight" rating** and a **$330 price target**.

The brokerage cited several factors:

- **Supply tightness extending through 2027**

- **Limited near-term competitive threat from China**

- **Leadership in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips**

- **Potential for significant cash generation**—Barclays estimates SK Hynix could generate cash equal to more than 40% of its current market cap by the end of 2027, enabling large-scale stock buybacks even as it continues capacity expansion

The ADRs responded immediately, surging nearly **28% to $193.92** on the Nasdaq on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, noted that the recent selloff in South Korean chip stocks had been amplified by the unwinding of positions in newly launched ETFs, while the underlying semiconductor cycle remains strong.

---

## The Human Element: What This Means for Investors

### For the SK Hynix Shareholder

If you've held SK Hynix through the recent volatility, Wednesday was a vindication. The stock is still up more than 300% year-to-date and nearly 200% over the past 12 months. But the roller-coaster ride has been intense: a 15% plunge in Seoul on Monday, a 9.3% drop in ADRs, and now a 13% rebound.

The emotional whiplash is real. But so is the fundamental story. As Kim Sunwoo put it, "With supply shortages set to deepen, memory prices and earnings are likely to continue improving, supporting a strong rebound in the share price."

### For the AI Investor

SK Hynix's rally is a reminder that the AI trade is not a straight line. The stock is volatile, and it will continue to be volatile. But the underlying demand for AI memory is structural, not cyclical.

HSBC echoed this view, noting in a recent report that improving profitability of AI services should continue to underpin strong cloud spending. The industry's shift toward **three- to five-year long-term supply agreements** should also improve earnings visibility over the next two to three years and reduce earnings volatility.

### For the Skeptic

The bear case hasn't disappeared. Investors are still grappling with concerns over a potential slowdown in memory earnings growth as quarterly price increases moderate in the second half of 2026. They've also questioned whether signs of slowing capital spending by major U.S. cloud service providers—and recent multi-billion-dollar capacity expansion plans by memory makers—could eventually ease the industry's supply-demand imbalance.

But for now, the bulls are winning. And the structural case for AI memory demand is getting stronger by the day.

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## The Bigger Picture: SK Hynix's Place in the AI Revolution

### The HBM Leader

SK Hynix is not just another memory chip maker. It is the **dominant supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM)** —the specialized chips that sit alongside Nvidia's GPUs in AI data centers. The company controls approximately **58% of the global HBM market**, far ahead of Samsung (21%) and Micron (21%).

HBM is the critical component that feeds data to AI processors at the speed required for training and inference. Without it, the AI revolution would grind to a halt. And SK Hynix is the company that makes most of it.

### The Supply Shortage Is Structural

What makes SK Hynix's position unique is that the supply shortage is not just cyclical—it's structural. Building new memory fabrication plants takes years and costs billions of dollars. Even with the aggressive capacity expansion plans announced by memory makers, new supply won't come online fast enough to meet the exploding demand from AI data centers.

As SK Hynix's CEO has warned, the shortage could extend **well beyond 2030**. That's not a temporary cycle. That's a multi-year structural deficit.

### The Valuation Question

Of course, even the best fundamentals can be overvalued. SK Hynix's stock has surged more than 680% over the past 12 months. The company's market capitalization now exceeds $1 trillion. Expectations are sky-high, and any disappointment could trigger sharp pullbacks.

But for now, the signals are overwhelmingly positive. The supply shortage is deepening. Analysts are turning more bullish. And the AI revolution is only getting started.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

**Q: Why did SK Hynix shares surge 13% on July 15, 2026?**

A: The rally was driven by three factors: softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data that boosted global tech stocks, upbeat analyst views on AI memory demand, and Barclays' initiation of coverage with a $330 price target.

**Q: How much is SK Hynix stock up year-to-date?**

A: SK Hynix shares have surged more than **300% year-to-date** and more than **680% over the past 12 months**.

**Q: What is the outlook for memory supply and demand?**

A: Analysts expect supply shortages to deepen. Meritz Securities estimates DRAM suppliers are currently meeting only 75% to 80% of demand, with that figure potentially falling to the 60% range in 2027. SK Hynix's CEO expects the shortage to extend well beyond 2030.

**Q: What is Barclays' price target for SK Hynix?**

A: Barclays initiated coverage with an "overweight" rating and a **$330 price target** on SK Hynix's ADRs.

**Q: How did SK Hynix's ADRs perform?**

A: The ADRs surged nearly **28% to $193.92** on the Nasdaq on Tuesday.

**Q: What is the biggest risk to SK Hynix's outlook?**

A: Key risks include a slowdown in memory earnings growth as quarterly price increases moderate, potential easing of the supply-demand imbalance due to capacity expansions, and broader macroeconomic headwinds.

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## Conclusion: The AI Memory Supercycle Is Far from Over

SK Hynix's 13% rally is more than just a one-day bounce. It's a signal that the AI memory supercycle is far from over. The supply shortages are deepening. The analysts are turning more bullish. And the structural demand from AI applications shows no signs of slowing.

"With supply shortages set to deepen, memory prices and earnings are likely to continue improving, supporting a strong rebound in the share price," Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities said.

For investors, the message is clear: the AI trade is volatile, but the fundamentals are undeniable. SK Hynix sits at the intersection of the two most powerful forces in the global economy—artificial intelligence and the semiconductor industry. And the company that controls the memory that powers AI is going to be a winner for years to come.

The question isn't whether SK Hynix will continue to benefit from the AI boom. The question is whether you're willing to ride the volatility to capture the long-term gains.

Read more from moon light---

## Disclaimer

**IMPORTANT:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information contained herein is based on publicly available sources and reflects the author's understanding as of the publication date. Market conditions, stock prices, and company performance are subject to rapid change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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*Published: July 15, 2026*

-Read more--

**Tags:** SK Hynix, SKHY stock, AI memory, HBM, semiconductor stocks, chip rally, South Korean stocks, AI infrastructure, memory shortage, Barclays price target, SK Hynix ADR, Nasdaq debut, AI demand, DRAM supply, semiconductor supercycle, tech stocks, KOSPI, Samsung Electronics, AI chip stocks, market rally

ASML Stock Gains as Earnings Ride the Wave of AI Spending

 

ASML Stock Gains as Earnings Ride the Wave of AI Spending

## The Dutch chip equipment giant just raised its 2026 forecast for the second time this year—and it's a powerful signal that the AI infrastructure buildout is far from over.

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### Introduction: The "Shovel Seller" That Everyone Forgot About

When investors talk about the AI boom, the conversation almost always starts and ends with the same names: Nvidia, the GPU maker that has become the symbol of the AI revolution. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, the hyperscalers spending billions on AI infrastructure. OpenAI and Anthropic, the model developers pushing the boundaries of what AI can do.

But there's a company that sits one level deeper in the supply chain—a company that doesn't make chips, doesn't build data centers, and doesn't develop AI models. Instead, it makes the machines that make the chips. And it just delivered a quarter that should make every AI investor sit up and take notice.

ASML Holding, the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant, reported second-quarter results on July 15, 2026, that beat expectations across the board. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast for the second time this year, now expecting net sales between €43 billion and €45 billion—up from a previous range of €36 billion to €40 billion. Shares rose as much as 8% in Amsterdam trading, helping lift other AI-related stocks after recent volatility.

"ASML's results came in sweet," said Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. And for good reason. The company's performance is a powerful signal that the AI infrastructure buildout is not slowing down—and that the companies supplying the "picks and shovels" for the AI gold rush are among the biggest beneficiaries.

---

### The Numbers That Matter: A Quarter for the Record Books

Let's start with the raw numbers. ASML's Q2 2026 performance was impressive by any measure:

| Metric | Q2 2026 | Consensus | Beat |

|--------|---------|-----------|------|

| **Net Sales** | €9.33 billion | €8.80 billion | +€530 million |

| **Net Income** | €2.92 billion | €2.62 billion | +€300 million |

| **Gross Margin** | 54% | — | Above guidance |

| **EPS** | €7.59 | ~€7.95 est. | Beat |

The company sold **86 new lithography systems** in the quarter, up from 67 in the first quarter. The **installed base business**—which includes upgrades and service work on machines already in the field—was a standout, reaching €2.8 billion, or €300 million above expectations. This matters because installed base revenue tends to carry attractive margins and helps support earnings even when new system sales fluctuate.

But the real story isn't just what happened in Q2—it's what ASML said about the future.

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### The Guidance Raise: A Second Upward Revision in 2026

ASML had already raised its guidance once this year, in April. On Wednesday, it did it again.

The company now expects:

- **Full-year 2026 net sales**: €43 billion to €45 billion (up from €36-40 billion)

- **Full-year 2026 gross margin**: 54% to 56% (up from 51-53%)

At the midpoint, the new guidance represents a **16% increase** from the previous forecast. It's well above the Wall Street consensus of €39.4 billion.

For the third quarter, ASML guided revenue of **€11 billion to €12 billion**, above the consensus estimate of €10.10 billion, with gross margin expected between 55% and 57%.

CEO Christophe Fouquet attributed the strength to one dominant force: **artificial intelligence**.

"Ongoing AI-related investments and continued progress in AI technologies are driving demand for advanced Logic and Memory chips, further strengthening the semiconductor industry's growth outlook," Fouquet said in a statement.

"Our customers, in turn, continue to accelerate their capacity expansion plans," he added. "This is translating into customer commitments across our product portfolio, providing ASML with increased visibility into longer-term demand".

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### The Capacity Expansion: 30% More in 2027, 30% More in 2028

Perhaps the most telling signal of ASML's confidence in the AI-driven demand outlook is the company's capacity expansion plans.

ASML said it plans to add **30% to its 2026 low-NA EUV lithography system capacity** of around 65 units for 2027, and is investigating a further 30% increase for 2028. The company also plans a **30% increase to its 2026 DUV immersion capacity** of around 130 units for 2027, with a further 30% expansion under review for 2028.

To put that in perspective: ASML shipped 44 low-NA EUV tools in 2025. It plans to ship 60-65 in 2026. And it's targeting capacity for up to 85 units in 2027. That's a **nearly doubling of capacity in just three years**.

This capacity expansion directly addresses one of the biggest concerns hanging over the AI trade: **bottlenecks**. If ASML can't make enough machines, chipmakers can't make enough chips, and the AI infrastructure buildout slows down. By expanding capacity, ASML is signaling that it believes the demand is real and sustainable.

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### The Human Element: What This Means for Investors

#### For the AI Investor

If you've been worried that the AI trade has run too far, too fast, ASML's results offer a powerful counterargument. The company is not just talking about AI demand—it's raising its guidance, expanding its capacity, and reporting record results. The AI infrastructure buildout is real, and it's still accelerating.

But there's a catch. ASML's stock has already gained more than **65% this year**. The company's shares have surged 115% over the past 12 months. At current levels, the stock is near the top of its 52-week range of $683.48 to $1,999.96.

"Investors will now be watching whether AI-driven chip spending remains strong enough to support ASML's higher growth targets into 2027," one analysis noted.

#### For the Long-Term Believer

ASML occupies a unique position in the global chip supply chain. It is the **only company in the world** that makes extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are essential for producing the most advanced semiconductors. Without ASML's machines, there are no advanced AI chips.

This monopoly position gives ASML enormous pricing power and visibility into future demand. As one analyst put it, "Every dollar spent on AI chips has to flow through this company".

The company's customers—TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Intel—are all racing to expand capacity for AI-related demand. TSMC, one of ASML's largest customers, recently reported a 68% jump in June sales on the back of strong demand for its chips.

#### For the Skeptic

The bear case is also worth considering. ASML's stock is expensive, and the company faces significant risks:

- **Export controls**: The U.S. has been tightening restrictions on sales to China, which is expected to account for about 20% of ASML's sales this year. A proposed U.S. law requiring allies to align with export controls could further restrict ASML's ability to sell to Chinese customers.

- **Valuation**: With the stock up 115% over the past year, expectations are sky-high. Any disappointment could trigger a sharp pullback.

- **Cyclicality**: The semiconductor industry is notoriously cyclical. While AI demand is strong today, a slowdown in hyperscaler spending could quickly reverse the momentum.

---

### The Intel Milestone: High-NA EUV Enters Production

One of the more exciting developments from ASML's earnings announcement was the news that **Intel has started using ASML's High-NA EUV tool for volume production**.

Intel is using the High-NA technology on its **18A process node** to produce "Panther Lake" chips, marking the first time any logic chipmaker has used High-NA EUV for high-volume manufacturing.

This is a significant milestone. High-NA EUV is the next generation of lithography technology, capable of creating even smaller and more powerful chips. ASML calls it the first "high-volume logic product" on High-NA EUV, which should set the stage for further adoption of the technology.

For ASML, this milestone validates the company's investment in High-NA technology and opens up a new revenue stream. As memory manufacturers begin to adopt High-NA EUV as early as 2027, the technology could become a significant growth driver.

---

### The China Question: A Cloud on the Horizon

Despite the strong results, there is one persistent risk that investors can't ignore: **China**.

ASML has denied selling its most advanced EUV tools to China, but the country is still expected to account for up to **20% of ASML's sales this year** through legal purchases of less-advanced DUV tools. These tools are used to make chips for automotive, industrial, and electronic products—not the most advanced AI chips, but still a significant revenue stream.

However, the U.S. has been tightening export controls, and a proposed law would require U.S. allies to align with these restrictions. If passed, it could further restrict ASML's ability to sell to Chinese customers.

CEO Christophe Fouquet acknowledged the risk, noting that China is still projected to represent about 20% of ASML's total net sales this year. Investors will be watching for any changes to this outlook.

---

### The "Picks and Shovels" Dynamic

ASML's performance is a textbook example of the "picks and shovels" dynamic that has played out in every major gold rush in history.

When gold is discovered, the miners take the risk. The people selling picks and shovels take the profit. The miners who rushed to California in 1849 often went broke, while the merchants selling equipment made fortunes.

The same dynamic is playing out in the AI revolution. The hyperscalers—Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle—are spending unprecedented amounts on AI infrastructure. They're projected to spend **$750 billion on capital expenditure in 2026**, up more than 73% from 2025 levels.

But the bulk of that spending flows straight to the chip and equipment suppliers—companies like Nvidia, Micron, and ASML—before a single AI workload generates a return.

ASML's results confirm that this dynamic is alive and well. The company's customers are "accelerating their capacity expansion plans," Fouquet said. And ASML is expanding its own capacity to meet that demand.

---

### Frequently Asked Questions

**Q: What did ASML report for Q2 2026?**

A: ASML reported Q2 net sales of **€9.33 billion**, net income of **€2.92 billion**, and a gross margin of **54%**. All three metrics beat both the company's guidance and analyst expectations.

**Q: How did ASML raise its 2026 guidance?**

A: ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to **€43 billion to €45 billion** (up from €36-40 billion) and its gross margin guidance to **54% to 56%** (up from 51-53%). This is the second upward revision this year.

**Q: Why is ASML's performance important for the AI trade?**

A: ASML is the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are essential for producing the most advanced semiconductors. Strong demand for ASML's equipment signals that chipmakers are expanding capacity for AI-related production.

**Q: What is ASML's capacity expansion plan?**

A: ASML plans to add **30% to its 2026 low-NA EUV capacity** for 2027 and **30% to its DUV immersion capacity** for 2027, with further expansions under review for 2028.

**Q: What is the High-NA EUV milestone?**

A: Intel has started using ASML's High-NA EUV tool for volume production on its 18A process node, marking the first time any logic chipmaker has used the technology for high-volume manufacturing.

**Q: What are the risks to ASML's outlook?**

A: Key risks include tightening U.S. export controls on sales to China, which accounts for about 20% of ASML's revenue, and the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry.

**Q: How has ASML stock performed in 2026?**

A: ASML shares have gained more than **65% in 2026** and **115% over the past 12 months**.

---

### Conclusion: The AI Trade's Quietest Winner

ASML's Q2 earnings report is a powerful reminder that the AI boom is not just about the companies building the models or running the data centers. It's about the entire supply chain—and the companies that make the machines that make the chips are among the biggest beneficiaries.

The company's second guidance raise this year, its capacity expansion plans, and its record results all point in the same direction: **AI-driven semiconductor demand is real, and it's accelerating**.

But ASML's success also highlights the risks of the AI trade. The stock is up 115% over the past year. Expectations are sky-high. And the company faces significant headwinds from U.S. export controls and the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry.

For now, however, the signals are overwhelmingly positive. As one analyst put it: "ASML's results came in sweet". And for investors in the AI trade, that's exactly what they needed to hear.

---

### Disclaimer

**IMPORTANT:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information contained herein is based on publicly available sources and reflects the author's understanding as of the publication date. Market conditions, stock prices, and company performance are subject to rapid change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

---

*Published: July 15, 2026*

Read more---

**Tags:** ASML, ASML earnings, Q2 2026, AI semiconductor, EUV lithography, semiconductor equipment, AI demand, ASML stock, chipmaking, AI infrastructure, semiconductor industry, ASML guidance, capacity expansion, High-NA EUV, Intel, TSMC, AI trade, semiconductor stocks, European tech, tech earnings

$672 Million Mega Millions Jackpot—Here's What the Winner Could Actually Take Home After Taxes

 $672 Million Mega Millions Jackpot—Here's What the Winner Could Actually Take Home After Taxes

**The biggest lottery prize of the year is up for grabs, but the eventual winner will see their windfall shrink dramatically before it hits their bank account.**

---

## Introduction: The Numbers That Make Your Head Spin

Picture this: You're sitting at your kitchen table, scrolling through your phone, when you see the notification. You've just won the Mega Millions jackpot. Your heart races. Your mind starts spinning with possibilities—the house, the car, the early retirement, the freedom to never work again.

Then reality sets in. Your phone starts ringing with calls from "financial advisors" you've never met. Your inbox fills with sob stories and investment pitches. And that $672 million jackpot? It's not going to be $672 million.

The Mega Millions jackpot has climbed to **$672 million**—the biggest lottery prize of the year so far—after no tickets matched all six numbers drawn on Tuesday night. The next drawing is Friday, July 17, at 11 p.m. ET. If you're planning to buy a ticket, you need to understand what you're actually playing for.

---

## The Numbers That Matter: $672 Million vs. $293.3 Million vs. $184.8 Million

Let's cut through the hype and look at what the winner would actually receive.

| Scenario | Amount |

|----------|--------|

| **Advertised Jackpot** | $672,000,000 |

| **Cash Option (Lump Sum)** | $293,300,000 |

| **After 24% Federal Withholding** | ~$222,900,000 |

| **After 37% Top Federal Rate** | ~$184,800,000 |

| **After State Taxes (e.g., NY 10.9%)** | ~$155,000,000 |

The advertised $672 million jackpot is paid as an **annuity**—30 payments over 29 years. Most winners choose the **cash option** instead, which is a one-time lump sum payment. For this jackpot, the cash option is **$293.3 million**.

That's the first hit: **you lose more than half the advertised jackpot just by choosing the cash option**.

### The Federal Tax Bite

The federal government takes its cut immediately. The IRS mandates a **24% flat withholding** for lottery winnings over $5,000. On a $293.3 million cash prize, that's about **$70.4 million** in mandatory withholding, bringing the payout down to roughly **$222.9 million**.

But that's just the beginning. Depending on your total taxable income for the year, you could face a **top federal marginal rate of 37%**. At that rate, the net cash prize would be approximately **$184.8 million**.

That's a **73% reduction** from the advertised jackpot.

### The Annuity Option

If you choose the annuity, you'll receive 30 annual payments that increase by 5% each year. The first payment would be roughly **$22.4 million**. After the 37% federal marginal rate, that drops to about **$14.1 million** per year.

The annuity spreads the tax burden over time and can help you avoid the highest tax bracket in a single year. But you're also betting that the lottery will still be solvent for three decades—and that you'll live long enough to collect all the payments.

### The State Tax Factor

State taxes add another layer of complexity. Some states, like **Texas, Florida, and California, don't tax lottery winnings**. Others, like **New York, tax at 10.9%**. In high-tax states, winners can lose **45% to 50% of their winnings** to federal and state taxes combined.

---

## The Human Element: What Actually Happens When You Win

### The "Winners Are Losers" Reality

Here's the uncomfortable truth: **most lottery winners end up worse off than before they won**. Studies have shown that a significant percentage of big jackpot winners declare bankruptcy within a few years. They're targeted by scammers, hounded by distant relatives, and pressured by "friends" who suddenly remember they exist.

The $672 million jackpot winner—if there is one—will face an avalanche of attention. Their name and hometown will be public record in most states. They'll be flooded with requests for money, investments, and "opportunities." They'll need to hire a team of professionals just to manage the chaos.

### The "What Would You Do?" Question

If you win, here's what the experts recommend:

1. **Don't tell anyone.** Seriously. Keep it to yourself until you have a plan.

2. **Hire a team.** You'll need a lawyer, an accountant, and a financial advisor—preferably ones who specialize in sudden wealth.

3. **Take the annuity—or not.** The lump sum gives you control; the annuity gives you protection from yourself. Choose based on your personality, not the math.

4. **Plan for taxes.** The 24% withholding is just the beginning. You'll owe more when you file your return.

5. **Stay anonymous if you can.** Only a few states allow winners to remain anonymous. If you live in one that doesn't, consider forming a trust or LLC to claim the prize.

---

## The Odds: 1 in 290.4 Million

Let's be realistic about your chances. The odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are **1 in 290.4 million**. That's slightly better than Powerball's odds of **1 in 292.2 million**, but it's still astronomical.

To put that in perspective:

- You're **more likely to be struck by lightning** (1 in 15,300).

- You're **more likely to be attacked by a shark** (1 in 11.5 million).

- You're **more likely to become a billionaire** (1 in 1.7 million).

The lottery is a tax on people who don't understand math. But for $2, it's a dream—and sometimes, dreams come true.

---

## What to Watch For

The next Mega Millions drawing is **Friday, July 17, at 11 p.m. ET**. If no one wins, the jackpot will roll over again, potentially surpassing $700 million. The Powerball jackpot has also grown to **$498 million**, with its next drawing on Wednesday night.

This is the biggest lottery prize of the year so far. The previous record for 2026 was a **$533 million jackpot** won in Illinois in March.

---

## Frequently Asked Questions

### Q: What's the difference between the jackpot and the cash option?

A: The advertised $672 million jackpot is paid as an annuity—30 payments over 29 years. The cash option is a one-time lump sum payment of $293.3 million.

### Q: How much would I actually get after taxes?

A: After the 24% federal withholding, the cash prize drops to about $222.9 million. After the 37% top federal rate, it's roughly $184.8 million. State taxes could reduce it further.

### Q: Which states don't tax lottery winnings?

A: States without income tax—including Texas, Florida, and California—don't tax lottery winnings. States like New York tax at 10.9%.

### Q: Should I take the annuity or the lump sum?

A: The lump sum gives you immediate control and lets you invest the money yourself. The annuity provides guaranteed income for 30 years and can help you avoid the highest tax bracket. There's no right answer—it depends on your financial discipline and goals.

### Q: What are the odds of winning?

A: The odds are **1 in 290.4 million**.

### Q: When is the next drawing?

A: The next Mega Millions drawing is **Friday, July 17, at 11 p.m. ET**.

---

## Conclusion: A Dream, Not a Retirement Plan

The $672 million Mega Millions jackpot is a tantalizing number. It's the kind of money that could change your life—and the lives of everyone you know. But it's important to understand what that number really means.

**$672 million is not what you'll get.** After the cash option, federal taxes, and state taxes, the actual take-home could be less than **$185 million**—or even less than **$160 million** in high-tax states.

That's still a life-changing amount of money. But it's a far cry from the headline number.

The lottery is a game. It's fun to dream. But if you're relying on a jackpot to solve your financial problems, you're better off spending that $2 on a cup of coffee and a plan. The odds are against you, and the taxes are guaranteed.

But hey—someone has to win. And if it's you, at least now you know what you're really getting into.

---

## Disclaimer

**IMPORTANT:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, or legal advice. Tax rates, withholding rules, and state laws are subject to change. The figures presented are estimates based on current federal and state tax rates. You should consult with a qualified tax professional, financial advisor, or attorney before making any decisions regarding lottery winnings or any other financial matter. Gambling involves risk. Please play responsibly.

---

*Published: July 15, 2026*

-Read more--

**Tags:** Mega Millions, $672 million jackpot, lottery taxes, cash option, annuity, Mega Millions winner, lottery payout, federal tax withholding, state lottery tax, Mega Millions odds, Powerball, jackpot winner, lottery winnings, financial planning, sudden wealth

Treasury Yields Flat as Traders Weigh Encouraging Inflation Data vs. Oil Rebound

Treasury Yields Flat as Traders Weigh Encouraging Inflation Data vs. Oil Rebound

**The bond market is caught in a tug-of-war between cooling inflation and a resurgent oil shock. Here's what the crosscurrents mean for your portfolio and the Fed's next move.**

---

## Introduction: The Market's Split Personality

Just 48 hours ago, the bond market was celebrating. Two consecutive days of softer-than-expected inflation data — first the Consumer Price Index, then the Producer Price Index — had traders scaling back bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4.60%, and the 2-year yield tumbled 11 basis points from a 17-month high.

Then came the oil shock.

President Trump's reinstatement of a naval blockade on Iran sent crude prices surging more than 9% in a single day. Brent crude topped $85 a barrel, and WTI pushed past $80. The geopolitical risk premium that had evaporated during the brief June ceasefire came roaring back — and with it, the threat of renewed inflation.

The result is a bond market caught between two opposing forces: cooling inflation data that suggests the Fed's work may be nearly done, and surging energy costs that could undo all that progress. Treasury yields ended Wednesday roughly flat, with the 10-year hovering near 4.59% — but the calm masks a deeper tension.

---

## The Inflation Data: A Rare Double Dose of Good News

### CPI: The Biggest Drop Since 2020

Tuesday's Consumer Price Index report was nothing short of a relief. Headline CPI fell **0.4%** in June — the first monthly decline since April 2020. The annual inflation rate dropped to **3.5%**, down from 4.2% in May and below the 3.8% consensus forecast.

Core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — was flat on the month, bringing the annual core rate down to **2.6%**, its lowest level since 2021. That's a significant milestone: core inflation is now within striking distance of the Fed's 2% target.

"The drop in headline U.S. inflation may well be reversed in July given the resumption of hostilities in the Gulf, but the first drop in monthly core CPI in...".

### PPI: Wholesale Prices Turn Negative

Wednesday's Producer Price Index reinforced the good news. Headline PPI fell **0.3%** in June — the first monthly decline since August 2025. Annual PPI came in at 5.5%, well below the 6.2% expected. Core PPI rose just 0.2% month-over-month and 4.7% year-over-year, both below forecasts.

The primary driver? Energy. Gasoline prices plunged 12% at the wholesale level, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the decline in final demand goods prices. Diesel fuel fell 18%, jet fuel dropped 17.2%, and crude petroleum tumbled 12.1%.

"It appears that the 2026 inflation resumption crested last month and headed back to its pre-conflict trend lower," said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.

### The Catch: Energy-Driven Relief Is Fragile

The problem is that the inflation relief was almost entirely energy-driven — and energy is already moving in the opposite direction. As one analyst put it, "the drop in headline U.S. inflation may well be reversed in July given the resumption of hostilities in the Gulf".

The June data reflected a brief pause in U.S.-Iran tensions. That pause is now over.

---

## The Oil Rebound: A Geopolitical Shock That Won't Quit

### The Blockade Returns

On July 13, President Trump announced the reinstatement of a naval blockade on Iran, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most important energy chokepoint. The U.S. military began "a fresh round of strikes to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz".

The market reaction was swift and severe. Brent crude surged 9.6% in a single day — its biggest daily rise since May 2020. WTI crude rose 9.4% to above $80 a barrel. By Wednesday, oil was holding near those elevated levels, with Brent around $85.20 and WTI near $80.20.

### The Inflation Risk

The oil surge threatens to reverse the inflation progress made in June. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has risen nearly 20 basis points since the start of July, reaching 4.621% — the highest since May 19. The 2-year yield hit 4.279%, its highest in 16 months.

"Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose nearly 20 basis points since the start of July to 4.621%, the highest since May 19, as crude-driven inflation expectations pushed bond markets to reprice rate paths".

The bond market is pricing in the reality that higher oil means higher inflation — and higher inflation means the Fed may have to keep rates higher for longer.

### The "Messy Middle"

The situation is volatile and unpredictable. The ceasefire is dead. Both sides are exchanging strikes. And the 60-day negotiation window that was supposed to lead to a permanent peace is now effectively closed.

"There is a risk premium and a disruption risk supporting prices," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The question is not whether oil prices will rise — they already have. The question is how high they will go.

---

## The Fed's Dilemma: Warsh's Hawkish Shadow

### The New Sheriff in Town

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is the wild card in this equation. Testifying before Congress on Tuesday, Warsh struck a notably hawkish tone. He said the central bank has "no tolerance" for persistently elevated inflation and vowed to "do my job" if challenged by President Trump.

Warsh's reputation precedes him. At his June debut, he called policy "not particularly restrictive" and stressed restoring price stability. With inflation falling but core remaining sticky — and oil re-rating higher — every sentence about the September path is being amplified.

### The Odds Shift

The probability of a July rate hike collapsed from roughly two-in-five to 14-20% after the CPI data. The odds of a September hike, however, remain elevated. Markets are pricing in roughly a **49% probability** of a rate hike in September, down from 70% last week.

"The market was building a conviction that the Fed was going to hike in September and it's certainly injected a bit of doubt into that now," said Chris Turner, head of global markets at ING.

Turner added that the Fed would probably need to see further soft inflation prints before completely ruling out a rate hike later this year.

### The Warsh Factor

Warsh's testimony was the catalyst with the "fattest tail," according to one analysis. With headline inflation falling while core stays sticky and oil re-rating higher, every sentence about the September path gets amplified.

"Warsh is the day, not the data," the analysis noted. The cool CPI just handed him room to hold without looking like he caused a selloff.

---

## The Bond Market Reaction: A Tale of Two Forces

### The Numbers

As of Wednesday, July 15, the bond market was caught in a tug-of-war:

| Treasury | Yield | Change |

|----------|-------|--------|

| **2-Year** | ~4.21% | Down from 4.30% high |

| **10-Year** | ~4.59% | Up 20 bps since July 1 |

| **30-Year** | ~5.12% | Back above 5% |

The 10-year yield edged down to 4.59% after the PPI report, but remained well above the 4.525% level hit after Tuesday's CPI. The 2-year yield was around 4.21%, still much lower than the 4.30% high from the previous day.

### The Yield Curve Message

The bond market is sending a clear signal: inflation fears are not dead. The 30-year yield pushing back above 5.12% — "hot, hot, hot," as one analyst put it — suggests that long-term investors are pricing in sustained inflation pressure.

Yields had been rising as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate and oil prices rise above $80 a barrel, but the soft inflation data dragged them below yesterday's settle. The net effect: yields were roughly flat on the day, but the trend remains upward.

### The "Good News" Paradox

Perhaps the most telling signal came from the bond market's reaction to the CPI data. On a downside inflation surprise, Treasury yields went up, not down — the 2-, 10-, and 30-year all ticked +2-3bp.

"The bond market is not trading the print. It is trading what comes after it: a third straight up-day in oil, and a new Fed Chair with a hawkish reputation who testifies at 10:00".

---

## What This Means for American Investors

### For Bond Investors

The bond market is signaling that the inflation fight is far from over. While the June data was encouraging, the oil shock threatens to reverse the progress. The 10-year yield's rise from 4.30% at the start of July to nearly 4.62% reflects this tension.

If you're a bond investor, the message is clear: **expect volatility**. The geopolitical situation is fluid, and oil prices are the wild card. The Fed's rate path will depend on data that is increasingly difficult to forecast.

### For Stock Investors

The equity market has largely shrugged off the bond market's caution. The S&P 500 closed +0.38% on Tuesday, and the Nasdaq Composite +0.90%. But the divergence between stocks and bonds is noteworthy.

"The bond market is not trading the print. It is trading what comes after it". If the bond market is right about the inflation outlook, stocks may eventually have to adjust.

### For Everyone

The tug-of-war between cooling inflation and surging oil prices is a reminder that the economy is not a straight line. The June data was good news — but it may prove temporary. As Jamie Cox put it, "the 2026 inflation resumption crested last month and headed back to its pre-conflict trend lower". The question is whether that trend will hold.

---

## Frequently Asked Questions

### Q: Why did Treasury yields fall after the inflation data?

A: The CPI and PPI reports both came in below expectations, signaling that inflation pressures are easing. This reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike, which pushed bond yields lower.

### Q: Why did yields rebound despite the good inflation news?

A: The inflation relief was largely driven by falling energy prices in June — and energy prices are now rising again due to the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. The bond market is pricing in the risk that the inflation progress will be reversed.

### Q: What did Fed Chair Kevin Warsh say?

A: Warsh testified before Congress on Tuesday and reiterated the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability. He struck a hawkish tone, saying the central bank has "no tolerance" for persistently elevated inflation.

### Q: What are the odds of a Fed rate hike?

A: The probability of a July rate hike collapsed to 14-20% after the CPI data. The odds of a September hike are around 49%, down from 70% last week.

### Q: What does the oil rebound mean for inflation?

A: Higher oil prices feed directly into gasoline prices, which feed into overall inflation. If oil stays above $80 a barrel, it could reverse the inflation progress made in June and keep pressure on the Fed to raise rates.

### Q: Should I adjust my portfolio?

A: The bond market is signaling that the inflation outlook is uncertain. Diversification remains key. As always, consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

---

## Conclusion: A Market at a Crossroads

The bond market's flat performance on July 15, 2026, masks a deeper tension. On one hand, the June inflation data was genuinely encouraging — the biggest monthly drop in CPI since 2020, core inflation at 2.6%, and PPI turning negative for the first time in nearly a year. On the other hand, the oil shock threatens to undo all that progress.

**Here's what we know for certain:**

**The inflation data was good.** CPI fell 0.4% in June, the first monthly decline since April 2020. Core CPI was flat on the month, bringing the annual rate down to 2.6%. PPI fell 0.3%, the first decline since August 2025.

**The oil shock is real.** Trump's reinstatement of the Iran blockade sent oil prices surging more than 9% in a single day. Brent crude is above $85 a barrel, and WTI is above $80.

**The Fed is watching.** Warsh's hawkish testimony and the market's pricing of a 49% chance of a September rate hike suggest that the Fed is not ready to declare victory.

**The bond market is cautious.** Yields rose on the good news — a sign that traders are looking past the June data to the inflation risks ahead.

For American investors, the message is clear: **stay diversified and stay disciplined.** The bond market is signaling that the inflation fight is far from over. The oil shock is a reminder that geopolitical risks can't be ignored. And the Fed's path remains uncertain.

The tug-of-war between cooling inflation and surging oil prices is likely to continue. And for now, the bond market is sitting right in the middle.

---

## Disclaimer

**IMPORTANT:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information contained herein is based on publicly available sources and reflects the author's understanding as of the publication date. Market conditions, bond yields, and economic data are subject to rapid change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

---

*Published: July 15, 2026*

--Read more -

**Tags:** Treasury yields, bonds, inflation, CPI, PPI, oil prices, Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, interest rates, bond market, Iran blockade, geopolitical risk, energy prices, Fed rate hike, 10-year Treasury, 2-year Treasury, market analysis, investment strategy, financial news