The $135 “Take It or Leave It”: SpaceX Prices Largest IPO in History—Here Is What Happens Next

 

 The $135 “Take It or Leave It”: SpaceX Prices Largest IPO in History—Here Is What Happens Next

**Subtitle:** *From a 4x oversubscribed frenzy to a 92x sales valuation, Elon Musk just dared the market to buy. Here is the timeline for Friday’s debut—and why you should wait for the “lock-up” dip.*

**Reading Time:** 8 Minutes | **Category:** Markets & AI

## Introduction: The Night the Market Held Its Breath

At 4:00 PM on Thursday, June 11, 2026, the lights will dim in the boardrooms of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The underwriters will finalize the largest IPO in human history. By 5:00 PM, the price will be locked in: **$135 per share**. By 9:30 AM on Friday, the ticker **SPCX** will flash across the screens of 27 million Robinhood accounts .

The numbers are staggering. SpaceX is offering 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising approximately **$75 billion** . The target valuation is **$1.77 trillion to $1.8 trillion** . That would make SpaceX the seventh most valuable company in the United States on day one—just behind Amazon and Alphabet .

And yet, the most remarkable thing about this IPO is what did not happen. There was no price range. No negotiation. No “book-building” in the traditional sense. Elon Musk simply declared the price—$135—and dared the world to buy .

The world did. According to sources familiar with the matter, the offering has been oversubscribed by more than **four times**, with total orders exceeding $250 billion . Institutional demand is so intense that the banks handling the transaction stopped taking orders after the market closed on Wednesday, a full day before the final price was set .

In this deep-dive, we will walk you through the exact timeline of the next 48 hours, break down the “take it or leave it” pricing strategy, and warn you about the $1 trillion valuation gap that has analysts deeply divided.

## Part 1: The “Take It or Leave It” Pricing – Why Musk Broke Wall Street’s Rules

Every IPO follows a script. The company sets a price range. The bankers gauge demand. The price is adjusted up or down. The process takes weeks.

SpaceX tore up the script.

### The Fixed Price Anomaly

On June 3, 2026, SpaceX filed an updated prospectus that contained a surprise: a fixed price of **$135 per share** . There was no range. There was no “expected” price. There was only a number.

“Most companies that go public set a preliminary price range for their stock offering before settling on a final number in case investor demand for their shares changes,” the New York Times reported . “But Mr. Musk and SpaceX sidestepped that and simply declared one price for investors.”

The decision is a power play. It signals that Musk is not desperate for capital. It signals that he believes the demand will be there regardless of the price. And it signals that he is willing to leave money on the table to maintain control over the process.

### The “No Negotiation” Stance

Initially, SpaceX told its underwriters that it would not adjust the price, regardless of demand . As the roadshow progressed and orders surged past $250 billion, that stance softened slightly. The final price is still $135, but the mere fact that it was discussed is a concession.

“SpaceX has informed the underwriting banks that it will not adjust the $135 per share IPO price,” one source told Eastmoney . “This indicates that the company is satisfied with investor demand during the roadshow.”

### The 4x Oversubscription

The numbers support the confidence. The offering is reportedly oversubscribed by **three and a half to four times** the planned size . Total orders have exceeded **$250 billion** . Some large institutional investors are expected to submit orders in the final hours before pricing .

“Long-only funds have put in what one source described as sizable orders,” Reuters reported .

The demand is so intense that the banks stopped taking institutional orders after the market closed on Wednesday . This is a defensive move—to prevent the order book from growing so large that allocations become impossible to manage.

| Traditional IPO | SpaceX IPO |

| :--- | :--- |

| Price range established | Fixed price: $135 |

| Range adjusted based on demand | No adjustment (initially) |

| Book-building takes weeks | Fast-tracked to days |

| IPO priced day before listing | Orders closed day before listing |

| 1-2x oversubscription typical | 4x oversubscription |

*Sources: *

## Part 2: The Timeline – What Happens in the Next 48 Hours

Here is the exact schedule for the final hours before SpaceX becomes a public company.

### Thursday, June 11, 2026 (Pricing Day)

- **4:00 PM ET:** The New York Stock Exchange closes. SpaceX’s underwriters (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan) hold a final pricing meeting .

- **5:00 PM - 7:00 PM ET:** The final price is confirmed at $135 per share. Allocations are determined. Institutional investors receive their notifications .

- **8:00 PM ET:** The updated prospectus is filed with the SEC. The IPO is officially priced.

### Friday, June 12, 2026 (Trading Debut)

- **9:30 AM ET:** The Nasdaq opens. SpaceX stock begins trading under the ticker **SPCX** .

- **First hour:** Expect extreme volatility. IPO stocks frequently jump on their first trading day. Between 2016 and 2025, over 1,100 companies listed shares on U.S. exchanges, and their stock prices increased by an average of **25% on day one** .

- **First day close:** The final price on day one will set the tone for the weeks ahead.

### The Days After (Index Inclusion)

The most significant catalyst is not the first day—it is the index inclusion. Under Nasdaq’s new “Fast Entry” rules, SpaceX could be added to the **Nasdaq-100 Index** just **15 trading days** after its IPO . That would force every ETF tracking that index (including the **QQQ**, with $500+ billion in assets) to buy billions of dollars of SPCX shares.

“If SpaceX is added quickly to major indices, passive funds and benchmark-tracking portfolios may be forced to buy the stock,” IG analysts noted . “That could turn the IPO from a short-lived headline trade into a structural demand story.”

The S&P 500 is a different story. S&P Dow Jones Indices has refused to fast-track SpaceX, citing its lack of profitability and insufficient seasoning . Inclusion in the S&P 500 could be a year or more away.

| Date | Event | Significance |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **June 11 (Thu)** | IPO Pricing | Final price confirmed at $135 |

| **June 12 (Fri)** | Trading Debut | Ticker SPCX begins trading |

| **Late June / Early July** | Nasdaq-100 Inclusion | Potential forced buying from passive funds |

| **2027 (earliest)** | S&P 500 Inclusion | Profitability and seasoning required |

## Part 3: The Valuation Chasm – $1.77 Trillion vs. $780 Billion

The most important number for investors is not the IPO price. It is the gap between the bulls and the bears.

### The Bull Case: Goldman’s $3.2 Trillion AI Bet

Goldman Sachs is leading the charge. The bank projects that SpaceX’s AI revenue (from xAI) will grow from approximately $32 billion in 2025 to **$3.22 trillion by 2030** . Total company revenue is projected to hit **$4.74 trillion** by 2030, with AI accounting for about 68% of the total .

“The market is not just paying for Starlink,” the Goldman report states . “It is betting on xAI’s explosive growth.”

### The Bear Case: Morningstar’s $780 Billion Fair Value

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens is the most prominent skeptic. He estimates SpaceX’s fair value at just **$780 billion**—less than half the IPO target .

Owens calls the xAI business an “indeterminate economic moat” with a “material threat of value destruction” . He notes that even his $780 billion fair value assumes near-perfect execution: a fully reusable Starship system, commercially viable orbital AI data centers, and the monetization of technologies that are still largely unproven .

### The Valuation Metrics

By conventional measures, SpaceX is extraordinarily expensive.

| Metric | SpaceX | Palantir (S&P 500 most expensive) |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **Price-to-Sales Ratio** | 92x  | 62x  |

| **Forward P/S (2026 est.)** | 40x  | — |

| **EBITDA Multiple** | 175x  | — |

“SpaceX will go public with a very expensive valuation of 92 times sales,” the Nasdaq analysis notes . “Palantir Technologies is currently the most richly valued stock in the S&P 500 at 62 times sales. SpaceX stock will be 48% more expensive when it starts trading.”

### The 40x Sales Benchmark

Even using forward estimates, the valuation is stretched. Barron’s analyst Aaron Rutten estimates that SpaceX is trading at roughly **40 times expected 2026 sales** . For context, Amazon trades at 3x sales. Nvidia trades at 20x sales.

“My investment instinct tells me that after the market has experienced many large IPOs, this kind of stock tends not to surge 200% as wildly as before,” Rutten said . “Nor do I think Musk will allow SpaceX to go public at $135 and see the first-day price hit $270.”

### The Historical Precedent

University of Florida professor Jay Ritter has studied IPO performance for decades. His research shows that the 10 largest U.S. IPOs on record have **underperformed the S&P 500 by 96 percentage points** since listing shares .

“The lesson for investors is crystal clear,” Ritter concluded . “Rather than participate in those IPOs, it would have been more lucrative to buy an S&P 500 index fund. And the same is probably true of the SpaceX IPO.”

| Analyst / Firm | Fair Value Estimate | Implied Upside/Downside |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **Goldman Sachs (Bull)** | Implied >$1.8T | +0% (base case) |

| **Morningstar (Bear)** | $780B  | -56% |

| **Barron’s / Rutten** | ~$1T  | -44% |

| **IPO Price** | $1.77T | Baseline |

*Sources: *

## Part 4: The “SpaceX Effect” – How This IPO Will Reshape the Market

The SpaceX IPO is not just about one stock. It is about the entire market.

### The Liquidity Drain

To buy $75 billion of SpaceX stock, institutions and retail traders have to sell something else. Analysts have already speculated that one factor in the recent market retreat could be selling by SpaceX buyers raising funds for the IPO .

“This type of herd behavior tends to amplify moves and create fatter tails,” one strategist warned . “Selling flows in recent winners and levered products from retail to invest in SpaceX could be very large.”

The most exposed names are AI and tech leaders: Nvidia (crowded positioning), Microsoft (mega-cap trimming), Amazon (potential liquidity source), and Tesla (Elon-linked rotation) .

### The Beneficiaries

Not everyone loses. The IPO creates a “benchmark” for the entire commercial space sector. “Once SPCX is trading and analysts are publishing models, every other space stock gets repriced relative to it,” Nasdaq notes .

The clearest beneficiary is **Rocket Lab (RKLB)** , which has matured from a scrappy small-satellite launcher into a vertically integrated space prime . Defense companies, satellite-to-mobile connectivity plays (T-Mobile, Qualcomm), and energy companies (power demand for orbital infrastructure) could also see interest .

### The Retail “FOMO” Factor

The IPO has drawn intense interest from retail investors, though many are cautious about buying at the peak . The fixed price and 4x oversubscription mean that most retail orders will not be filled. The stock will trade at a premium on the open market.

“Retail access could become a major demand engine,” IG analysts note . “Large float allocation could support retail-driven demand.”

### The Passive “Fast Entry” Wildcard

The biggest unknown is the Nasdaq-100 inclusion. If SpaceX is added just 15 trading days after its IPO, passive funds will be forced to buy regardless of valuation . This could create a “virtuous cycle” where index inclusion drives price, which justifies more index inclusion.

“If the company fails to justify its valuation, the fallout will not be limited to speculative investors,” investingLive warns . “It will also hit pension funds, retirement accounts, and passive portfolios worldwide.”

**The Human Touch:** For the retail investor, the “SpaceX Effect” is a double-edged sword. The IPO creates opportunities in related sectors. But it also creates risk of a liquidity drain in existing holdings. The smart play may not be buying SPCX—it may be buying the companies that benefit from the attention and capital flows.

## Part 5: The Investor Playbook – How to Play the Debut

The IPO is priced. The demand is overwhelming. The valuation is contested. Here is how to navigate the debut.

### For the Long-Term Investor

Do not buy at the open. IPO stocks frequently jump on day one, but the long-term returns are poor. University of Florida professor Jay Ritter’s research shows that large IPOs underperform the market by a wide margin .

“Rather than participate in those IPOs, it would have been more lucrative to buy an S&P 500 index fund,” Ritter concluded .

Wait for the **lock-up expiration** (typically 180 days after the IPO). That is when insiders can sell, and the price often dips. The smart money buys the dip, not the pop.

### For the Tactical Trader

The first hour will be chaotic. Options will not trade immediately. Do not chase. Consider selling out-of-the-money puts after the dust settles. The premium will be elevated, and the downside is defined.

### For the Thematic Investor

The “SpaceX Effect” is real. Consider buying **Rocket Lab (RKLB)** , which is a direct beneficiary of the space sector benchmark . Consider **T-Mobile (TMUS)** and **Qualcomm (QCOM)** for satellite-to-mobile connectivity . Consider **energy stocks** for the power demand narrative.

### For the Spectator

The SpaceX IPO is the most anticipated market event of the year. The price action on Friday will be volatile. The index inclusion in July will be another catalyst. The lock-up expiration in December will be the real test.

Do not get caught in the “FOMO” (Fear Of Missing Out). There will be other opportunities to buy.

| Strategy | Timing | Risk Level |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **Buy at open** | June 12 | Very High |

| **Wait for index inclusion** | July | Moderate |

| **Wait for lock-up expiration** | December | Low |

| **Buy related plays (RKLB, TMUS)** | Now | Moderate |

| **Sell out-of-the-money puts** | After first week | Moderate |

| **Buy S&P 500 index fund** | Anytime | Low |

## Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

**Q: When is the SpaceX IPO pricing?**

A: SpaceX is expected to price its IPO after the market closes on **Thursday, June 11, 2026** .

**Q: When will SpaceX stock start trading?**

A: Shares are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker **SPCX** on **Friday, June 12, 2026** .

**Q: How much is SpaceX raising?**

A: SpaceX is offering 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising approximately **$75 billion** .

**Q: What is SpaceX’s valuation at the IPO price?**

A: At $135 per share, SpaceX is valued at approximately **$1.77 trillion to $1.8 trillion** .

**Q: Is the IPO oversubscribed?**

A: Yes. The offering is reportedly oversubscribed by **four times**, with total orders exceeding $250 billion .

**Q: Should I buy SpaceX stock at the IPO?**

A: (Disclaimer: Not financial advice.) Analysts are divided. The bull case is based on AI revenue growth to $3.2 trillion by 2030 . The bear case is based on a fair value of $780 billion from Morningstar . History suggests that large IPOs underperform the market . The smart play may be to wait for the lock-up expiration.

**Q: When will SpaceX join the S&P 500?**

A: Not soon. S&P Dow Jones Indices requires profitability and 12 months of trading history. Inclusion is unlikely until **2027** at the earliest .

**Q: Will SpaceX join the Nasdaq-100?**

A: Possibly. Under Nasdaq’s “Fast Entry” rules, SpaceX could be added as soon as **15 trading days** after its IPO .

## Conclusion: The $135 Gamble

We started this article with a number: $135. That is the price Elon Musk set for the largest IPO in history.

We end with a different number: **$1.77 trillion**. That is the valuation.

The SpaceX IPO is not a normal stock offering. It is a bet on the future. It is a bet that Starlink will continue to grow. It is a bet that xAI will become a $3.2 trillion business by 2030. It is a bet that orbital data centers are not science fiction.

**For the Believer:**

The valuation is justified. The technology is transformative. The long-term trend is clear. Buy and hold.

**For the Skeptic:**

The valuation is insane. The losses are mounting. The competition is fierce. Avoid and wait.

**For the Curious:**

Watch the first week of trading. Watch the index inclusion. Watch the lock-up expiration. The story is just beginning.

**The Bottom Line:**

SpaceX is set to price the largest IPO in history on Thursday night. The demand is overwhelming. The valuation is contested. The debut is Friday.

The $135 price is set. The market will decide the rest.

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**#SpaceXIPO #SPCX #ElonMusk #Starlink #xAI #IPO2026 #Investing #SpaceStocks**

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*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. IPO price is subject to final confirmation. Always consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.*