‘Half My Business Will Be Gone’ – Firms in Canada and US Fear Trade War

 ‘Half My Business Will Be Gone’ – Firms in Canada and US Fear Trade War

## The Silence After the Gavel Fell

Just after midnight on Saturday, August 22, 2026, the clock struck zero on a century of economic trust. The 50% tariffs that President Donald Trump had threatened for weeks took effect—and with them, the hopes of thousands of business owners on both sides of the border evaporated.

For Cindy Baldassi, the moment was personal. Her Calgary-based jewelry company, CindyLouWho2, relies on American buyers for roughly **75% of its sales**. Her pieces—amethyst, sea glass, and agates—are the kind of artisanal goods that thrive on cross-border commerce. But with a majority of her products now falling under the new tariffs, she faces a devastating choice: add 50% to her prices and watch her customers disappear, or absorb the cost and watch her margins vanish.

“It’s quite likely that it will wipe out most of my US sales,” Baldassi told the BBC. **“I expect that at least half of my business will be gone.”**

She is not alone. From the furniture factories of Ontario to the clothing designers of Toronto, from steel fastener suppliers in Scarborough to menswear brands with U.S. retailers, a trade war that began with political posturing has become an existential threat to thousands of small and medium-sized businesses. And the pain is only beginning.

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## The Collapse: How 11th-Hour Talks Fell Apart

### Three Days of Negotiations, 60 Seconds of Failure

The tariffs that took effect on August 22 were not a surprise. President Trump had announced them in July, citing Canada's “discriminatory treatment of American products”—specifically policies on U.S.-made cars, alcohol, and dairy goods. The initial deadline passed, but a three-day suspension of the tariffs in mid-August offered a glimmer of hope. Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington, and by Friday, sources suggested a deal was within reach.

Then, at the final hour, everything unraveled.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the U.S. introduced last-minute changes that were **“unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal”**. The new terms, he explained, would have reduced tariff relief for Canadian-made vehicles and restricted Canada's ability to strike new trade deals with other countries.

“I have decided to suspend trade negotiations with the U.S. and have directed Canada's negotiators to return to Ottawa,” Carney announced.

The White House followed through. At 12:01 a.m. on Saturday, the 50% tariffs took effect.

### What the Tariffs Actually Cover

The new duties hit roughly **$20 billion worth of Canadian goods**—about 5% of Canada's annual exports to the U.S.. The list is broad and, in some cases, oddly specific:

- **Building materials**: plywood, cement, lumber

- **Food and beverages**: wine, dairy products, agricultural goods

- **Consumer goods**: furniture, clothing, hockey sticks, fishing rods

- **Industrial products**: steel, aluminum

- **Other**: Christmas decorations, tongue depressors

The tariffs do **not exempt Canadian products under the USMCA**—the trade agreement that had shielded most Canadian exports for the previous 18 months.

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## The Human Toll: Real Stories, Real Fear

### Cindy Baldassi: “Half My Business Will Be Gone”

Baldassi's story is the one that has resonated most widely. Her Calgary-based jewelry company, CindyLouWho2, has built its business on the cross-border connection between Canadian craftsmanship and American taste. **Seventy-five percent of her sales come from the U.S.**.

With the new tariffs, she faces a brutal arithmetic. To maintain her margins, she would need to raise prices by 50%. But in a competitive market, that's not a viable option.

“It's quite likely that it will wipe out most of my US sales,” she said. **“I expect that at least half of my business will be gone.”**

### Lind Furniture: “We May Get Killed”

Michael Saifer, general manager of Lind Furniture, has been in the business for almost 60 years. His Ontario-based company sells leather furniture to big-box clients like Sears and Costco. Sales dropped when Trump took office in 2025.

“As soon as there were tariffs in the air, people put purchases on hold,” Saifer told the BBC. His concern now is existential. **“I don't know that we're going to win a war with them; we may get killed.”**

### Outclass: “Small Businesses Are Going to Get Smashed”

Matteo Sgaramella, founder of the Toronto-based menswear brand Outclass, faces a different but equally painful problem. His company collects orders from clothing designers months in advance. Products that U.S. stores ordered in January will arrive in September—now with a 50% tariff attached.

“If I contact them now and tell them, hey, you know, you may get an extra 50% bill from UPS on top of what you need to pay me for this shipment, they're all going to say, 'no way, don't ship it,'” Sgaramella said.

He still has to figure out where that additional cost will go. **“There's going to be a lot of people that go out of business because of this,”** he said. “Big business can, you know, always find a way... but small businesses are going to get smashed by this.”

### Kimberly Turner-Briscoe: Sleepless Nights and Tough Choices

Kimberly Turner-Briscoe, president of a Scarborough-based steel fastener supplier, has had “countless sleepless nights” trying to keep her business going since the start of Trump's trade war. She's already had to pivot business away from the U.S. and lay off some of her staff.

Despite the pain, she's defiant. “Don't back down. No deal is better than a bad deal,” she said as a message to the government. “Business is not for the faint of heart. It used to be a lot more fun than it is right now.”

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## The Numbers: What the Economists Are Saying

### 90,000 Jobs at Risk

The human stories are backed by cold, hard numbers. University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimates that **some 87,000 to 90,000 jobs could be lost** across Canada as a result of the new duties.

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) has been even more direct. “A full 40 per cent of small exporters sell items on the new 10+ page list of items facing 50 per cent tariffs,” said CFIB's Kelly. “Many CFIB members have said this will end their U.S. sales and some have reported this will kill their businesses.”

### A 0.2% GDP Hit

The economic impact extends beyond jobs. Professor Vu Manh Chien estimates that the shock could cause Canada to lose about **0.1 to 0.2 percentage points of growth** in the second half of 2026 and **0.2 to 0.3 percentage points in 2027**.

### The Tariff Math

The new U.S. tariffs cover about **5% of Canada's exports to the U.S.**, affecting sectors from wine to hockey equipment. The retaliatory tariffs Canada plans to impose on September 8 will target **U.S. steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics**.

### The “Dollar-for-Dollar” Response

Carney has been unequivocal: **Canada will match Washington's new tariffs “dollar for dollar”** to protect Canadian workers, farmers, families, and businesses. The counter-tariffs will take effect on **September 8, 2026**.

“You're at war when you get attacked. We got attacked,” Carney said when asked whether Canada was engaged in a trade war.

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## The Political Landscape: A Fight for Sovereignty

### Carney's Defiance

Carney, the only person to have ever run the central banks of two major economies, was elected last year on promises to stand up to Trump. He remains broadly popular, and polls show most Canadians oppose making any concessions to Trump.

At a press conference on Saturday, Carney laid out the stakes. “We cannot accept what they have offered, and we will not give what they have asked,” he said.

### Ford's Challenge

Ontario Premier Doug Ford struck a similarly defiant tone. “It was a bad deal. It was a bad deal for Ontario, it was a bad deal for the auto sector and steel sector and manufacturing sector,” he said. “We never started this fight, but I can assure you we're going to win this fight.”

Ford said the province's diversified economy would be able to withstand the challenges and that Ontario would support workers in impacted sectors.

### The USMCA in Jeopardy

Perhaps the most significant long-term consequence is the threat to the USMCA, the trade agreement that replaced NAFTA. Carney warned that the U.S. side's repeated disregard for existing trade agreements “sends a bad signal to international businesses” and is “certainly not good news” for renewing the agreement in the future.

The United States has already begun formal talks with Mexico to revamp the agreement, but talks with Canada have not yet begun.

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## The American Side: Pain Across the Border

### It's Not Just Canada Feeling the Pain

The impacts are not only being felt north of the border. Carney's promised retaliatory tariffs, set to begin September 8, will hit U.S. industries including **steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics**.

The companies most directly exposed to Canadian manufacturing have already felt the pain. General Motors and Stellantis shares fell sharply on the news. A tariff on Canadian steel can hurt manufacturers that consume metal, while for automakers, higher steel and parts costs can squeeze margins.

### Higher Prices for American Consumers

Experts warn that the escalating tariffs will ultimately be paid by consumers on both sides of the border. “Nearly all industries and professions are likely to see downstream effects from this spiraling trade dispute,” said Augustine Lo, a lawyer whose work includes advising clients on international trade.

Steeper tariffs raise costs for businesses, and **those costs almost always trickle down to households in the form of higher prices**.

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## The Path Forward: What Comes Next?

### No Talks Scheduled

For now, there are no further talks planned. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the U.S. is “moving forward with measures that respond to Canadian retaliation”.

### Retaliation on September 8

Canada's retaliatory tariffs will take effect on September 8. The government is also building on the nearly $25 billion in support already provided over the past 18 months.

### Uncertainty for Businesses

The uncertainty is already taking a toll. Businesses on both sides of the border are facing difficult decisions about investment, hiring, and supply chains. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce is mobilizing its network to help businesses “brace for impact and make the best of a bad situation”.

### The Human Cost

Behind the political rhetoric and economic analysis are real people whose livelihoods are now at risk. The Quebec lumber worker whose mill may close. The Ontario steelworker facing an uncertain future. The British Columbia winemaker who has spent years building a U.S. market, only to see a 50% tariff wipe it out overnight.

Carney acknowledged the human toll. “They have worked hard, in good faith, to defend the interests of Canadians throughout these negotiations up until the very last minute,” he said.

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## Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

### 1. What products are subject to the new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canada?

The tariffs cover approximately **$20 billion worth of Canadian goods**, including **plywood, cement, wine, hockey sticks, furniture, dairy products, clothing, fishing rods, agricultural products, steel, and aluminum**.

### 2. When did the tariffs take effect?

The tariffs took effect at **12:01 a.m. on Saturday, August 22, 2026**.

### 3. Why did the trade talks fail?

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the U.S. introduced last-minute changes that were **“unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal”**. The new terms would have reduced tariff relief for Canadian-made vehicles and restricted Canada's ability to strike new trade deals.

### 4. How is Canada responding?

Canada will impose **“dollar-for-dollar” retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods** starting September 8, 2026. The counter-tariffs will target U.S. steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.

### 5. How will this affect American consumers?

Experts warn that tariffs raise costs for businesses, and **those costs almost always trickle down to households in the form of higher prices**. American consumers can expect to pay more for Canadian goods ranging from lumber to hockey equipment.

### 6. What is the USMCA and is it at risk?

The USMCA is the trade agreement that replaced NAFTA. The current trade war complicates efforts to renew the agreement.

### 7. Are there any further talks planned?

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said **no new talks are scheduled**.

### 8. Who is most affected by these tariffs?

Canadian industries most exposed include **softwood lumber, wine, steel, aluminum, and automotive parts**. Small and medium-sized businesses are particularly vulnerable.

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## Conclusion: A Relationship Fractured

The 50% tariffs that took effect on August 22, 2026, represent more than just another trade dispute. They represent a fundamental rupture in a relationship that has defined North American prosperity for generations.

For more than a century, the U.S.-Canada border has been the longest undefended border in the world—a symbol of trust and cooperation between two of the world's closest allies. That border is now a frontline in an economic war.

The tariffs will raise prices for consumers on both sides. They will cost jobs in industries from lumber to auto parts. They will disrupt supply chains that have been integrated for decades. And they will cast a long shadow over efforts to renew the USMCA—the trade agreement that was supposed to ensure North American economic integration for the 21st century.

The human stories are the most devastating. Cindy Baldassi, who expects half her business to disappear. Michael Saifer, who fears his 60-year-old furniture company “may get killed.” Matteo Sgaramella, who warns that “small businesses are going to get smashed.” Kimberly Turner-Briscoe, who has already laid off staff and endured countless sleepless nights.

Carney's words captured the gravity of the moment: **“You're at war when you get attacked. We got attacked.”**

Whether this is the beginning of a prolonged trade war or a temporary breakdown in negotiations remains to be seen. What is clear is that the trust that once defined the U.S.-Canada relationship has been severely damaged. And in trade—as in any relationship—**trust is the hardest thing to rebuild**.

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## Disclaimer

*This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. All views expressed are based on publicly available information as of August 24, 2026. Trade policies, tariff rates, and negotiation statuses are subject to change. The author does not endorse any specific political positions or investment strategies. Before making any financial or business decisions based on the content of this article, please consult with qualified professionals who can evaluate your specific situation. The author is not affiliated with the U.S. government, the Canadian government, or any other entity mentioned in this article.*