‘It’s Just a Wasted Effort’: Why U.S. Tourism Groups Can’t Win Back Canadian Visitors

 

‘It’s Just a Wasted Effort’: Why U.S. Tourism Groups Can’t Win Back Canadian Visitors

**Canada is the United States’ largest source of international visitors. But a bitter trade war, tariff threats, and President Trump’s remarks about making Canada the 51st state have triggered a consumer boycott that has cost the U.S. tourism industry billions — and American destinations are struggling to reverse the damage.**

The billboards are everywhere. “NY Loves Canada.” “Vegas on Par.” Hotel discounts, at-par currency exchanges, and social media campaigns all aimed at one message: *Please come back.*

For Josh Loewen, a Vancouver-based marketing executive, the overtures are easy to spot. He sees them on his commute, in his social media feeds, and in his inbox. But he’s not booking a trip south anytime soon.

“It’s such a big ask right now,” Loewen told the Associated Press. “It’s just a wasted effort.”

He’s not alone. After a brief rebound this summer, the latest escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade war is threatening to reinforce an informal boycott that has already cost American tourism billions — and there’s no end in sight.

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## The Numbers That Tell the Story

### A 25% Plunge in Border Crossings

The statistics are stark. In 2025, Canadian residents made **25% fewer return border crossings** and spent about **$2.4 billion (CA$3.3 billion) less** on travel to the U.S. than they had the year before.

The drop accelerated after President Trump returned to office with remarks about making Canada the 51st state. What started as a political controversy quickly became a consumer-led boycott that has reshaped travel patterns on both sides of the border.

By early 2026, the numbers had gotten even worse. **Four million fewer Canadian travelers** visited the U.S. in 2025 than the previous year — a **22% drop**, according to the U.S. Commerce Department’s National Travel and Tourism Office. The U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office estimates that during the first six months of 2026, Canadians made **even fewer overnight visits**, which typically generate more tourism spending.

### State-by-State Pain

The losses have been felt across the country:

- **Florida** saw a **7% decline** in Canadian visitors in 2025 compared to the previous year, according to Visit Florida.

- **Las Vegas** lost more than a **quarter-million Canadian tourists** in 2025 — a **17% year-over-year drop**.

- **New York State** saw spending by Canadian visitors fall by **28%** in 2025.

- **Kalispell, Montana**, a community that relies heavily on Canadian tourism, saw an estimated **38% drop** in Canadian visitors in 2025.

### The World Cup Bump That Wasn’t Enough

There were tentative signs of recovery in May, June, and July 2026, when border crossings picked up slightly. The 2026 World Cup — co-hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico — gave some Canadians a reason to head south. In July, there were more than 2.27 million Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S., up 10.2% compared with July 2025.

But the rebound remains far from complete. Automobile return trips in July were still **28.9% below July 2024 levels**, and air travel was down **26.8%** compared with two years ago. Statistics Canada said the year-over-year increase was largely the result of comparison with 2025, when travel dropped sharply.

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## Why Canadians Are Staying Away

### The “51st State” Comment That Started It All

The decline in Canadian travel didn’t happen in a vacuum. It was triggered by a series of events that began almost immediately after Trump’s return to the White House.

“The number of Canadians traveling to the United States plunged after President Donald Trump returned to office with remarks about making Canada the 51st state,” the Associated Press reported.

That comment, which Trump has repeated, struck a nerve with Canadians who had long viewed the relationship as one of mutual respect. The subsequent trade war — with Trump imposing import taxes of up to 50% on a range of Canadian products and Canada responding in kind — has only deepened the rift.

### A “Persistent Shift” in Travel Preferences

Statistics Canada analysts said the abrupt pullback in stateside travel signaled “a persistent shift away from the United States by Canadian residents in their travel preferences”.

It’s not just about politics. Other headwinds have compounded the problem, including a weaker Canadian dollar that makes traveling to the U.S. more expensive and rising prices for airfares and hotels. But the political dimension is the most difficult for U.S. tourism officials to overcome.

### Travel Advisors See a “Tougher Sell”

Travel advisors on the ground are witnessing the shift firsthand. Delores Fredriksen of CAA Travel in Saint John says her bookings for U.S. visits remain low.

“From my perspective as a travel advisor, the trade tensions between Canada and the United States have absolutely made travel to the U.S. a tougher sell,” Fredriksen told *Travel Courier*. “Prior to early 2025, travel to the United States was one of the most consistent parts of my business… Since February 2025, however, demand has dropped significantly, and I can count my U.S. bookings on two hands.”

The hesitation isn’t being driven by cost or availability, she said. “Instead, it’s being driven by traveller sentiment.”

### Canadians Are Choosing Alternatives

Rather than heading south, many Canadians are choosing to explore their own country or travel farther afield.

“Rather than heading south, many of my clients are choosing to explore Canada, from the Rocky Mountains and Atlantic Canada to destinations they may never have previously considered,” Fredriksen said. “Others are looking farther afield, with growing interest in Europe and Asia.”

The desire to travel hasn’t diminished, she emphasized. “What has changed is where Canadians are choosing to spend their travel dollars.”

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## The American Response: Discounts, Campaigns, and Desperation

### “NY Loves Canada” and “Vegas on Par”

State and local tourism officials have launched a wave of campaigns to win Canadian visitors back:

- **New York State** launched a “NY Loves Canada” promotion this summer, offering discounts at hotels, restaurants, and attractions.

- **Vermont’s** “100% Love for Canada” promotion includes discounts of up to 50% on hotels, restaurants, attractions, and ski lift tickets.

- **Las Vegas** tourism officials went to Canada last month to meet with travel advisors, tour operators, and airline representatives. Some downtown hotels are treating the Canadian dollar as equivalent to the U.S. dollar.

- **Myrtle Beach** is offering hotel discounts of up to 50% through the end of the year.

### Brand USA Goes to Canada

The outreach is happening at the national level, too. Brand USA, the U.S. tourism industry’s marketing organization, is bringing its Travel Week trade-event series to Canada for the first time in October, expanding and rebranding an earlier program known as Canada Connect.

“We’re here to make sure you know that we care about Canada,” Steve Hill, president of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, said while in Vancouver.

### Will It Work?

Despite the efforts, the outlook is uncertain. A Longwoods International tracking study fielded before the new tariffs were announced found that a slight majority (51%) of Canadians had no intention to travel to the U.S. in the next year.

“Right now, there are some good indicators that the bleeding may have stopped,” Amir Eylon, President and CEO of Longwoods International, told Forbes. But he added a caution: “We’ll see this fall if the new tariffs have a negative impact.”

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## The Human Cost

### Daniel Fredette’s Boat Stays Put

For Daniel Fredette, a Quebec resident who keeps his boat at a marina in Prescott, Ontario, the Labour Day long weekend used to mean a trip across the St. Lawrence River to Clayton, New York. Not this year.

“We used to go very often, at least I’d say twice a year every summer, and especially during this long weekend,” Fredette told CTV News. “But we don’t go anymore because of that tension.”

“We’re trying to buy Canadian,” he said. “We didn’t mind before spending our money on the other side… but for the time being, we’re buying Canadian stuff a little bit.”

### Communities Feel the Loss

For American communities that rely on Canadian tourism, the decline has been economically painful. Lorraine Clarno, President and CEO of Discover Kalispell, Montana, said the rebound has been encouraging, but the latest trade dispute threatens to undo the progress.

“It does concern us,” Clarno said. “When our Canadian friends are not here, we do feel it economically; there’s no if, and/or but, not just from hotels but from every aspect of hospitality and recreation.”

### The “Base-Year Effect”

Even the recent uptick in travel comes with a caveat. Statistics Canada noted that the year-over-year increase in July travel was largely the result of comparison with 2025, when travel dropped sharply. The agency stressed that the gain reflects a “base-year effect” rather than a full recovery.

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## The Outlook: What Comes Next?

### Trade War Uncertainty

The fate of cross-border tourism is now tied to the broader trajectory of the U.S.-Canada trade war. Relations between the two governments have deteriorated sharply since their trade negotiations collapsed in August. Trump has imposed import taxes of up to 50% on a range of Canadian products, and Canada has responded in kind. Trump even ordered the U.S. government to change the name of Lake Ontario to “Lake America”.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has dismissed insults from members of Trump’s Cabinet as childish and undignified.

### Travel Advisors Expect Another Drop

Travel advisors are predicting that the current trade war will lead to another drop in U.S. travel. Jamie Milton of Uniglobe Carefree Travel Group in Saskatoon said the past couple of months had shown signs of bottoming out, but the newest round of trade wars could reverse that.

“What remains to be seen is if the newest round of trade wars will cause this hesitant return to drop off again,” Milton said.

### A Long Road Ahead

For American tourism groups, the challenge is daunting. Canada traditionally sent more overnight international visitors to the United States than any other country. Rebuilding that relationship will require more than billboards and discounts. It will require a shift in the political climate — and that may take years.

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## Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

### 1. How much has Canadian travel to the U.S. declined?

Canadian residents made 25% fewer return border crossings and spent about $2.4 billion (CA$3.3 billion) less on travel to the U.S. in 2025 than they had the year before. Four million fewer Canadian travelers visited the U.S. in 2025 — a 22% drop.

### 2. Why are Canadians staying away?

The decline is driven by a combination of factors: President Trump’s remarks about making Canada the 51st state, a bitter trade war with tariffs of up to 50% on Canadian goods, a weaker Canadian dollar, and rising travel costs.

### 3. What is the U.S. tourism industry doing to win Canadians back?

States and cities have launched campaigns including “NY Loves Canada,” Vermont’s “100% Love for Canada,” and Las Vegas’s “Vegas on Par” currency-exchange promotion. Brand USA is bringing its Travel Week event to Canada for the first time.

### 4. Are Canadian travelers returning to the U.S.?

There were tentative signs of recovery in May, June, and July 2026, partly due to the World Cup. In July, return trips were up 10.2% year-over-year, but they remained 28.9% below July 2024 levels for automobile travel.

### 5. How has the trade war affected specific states?

Florida saw a 7% decline in Canadian visitors; Las Vegas lost 17% of its Canadian tourists; New York State saw a 28% drop in Canadian visitor spending; and Kalispell, Montana, saw a 38% drop.

### 6. What do travel advisors say about the outlook?

Travel advisors expect the trade war to lead to another drop in U.S. travel. Many Canadians are choosing to explore Canada or travel to Europe and Asia instead.

### 7. Will the World Cup help boost Canadian travel?

The World Cup provided a temporary bump in travel, but the gains have been modest. July travel remained well below 2024 levels, and the latest tariff escalation threatens to reverse the progress.

### 8. Is this a temporary boycott or a permanent shift?

Statistics Canada analysts said the decline signals “a persistent shift away from the United States by Canadian residents in their travel preferences”. The outcome will depend on the trajectory of the trade war and the political climate.

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## Conclusion: A Wasted Effort?

Josh Loewen’s assessment — “It’s just a wasted effort” — captures the frustration of American tourism officials trying to win back Canadian visitors. The billboards are up. The discounts are being offered. The delegations are traveling north. But none of it can undo the damage caused by a trade war that has poisoned the relationship between two of the world’s closest allies.

For American communities that rely on Canadian tourism, the stakes are high. When Canadians stop coming, hotels empty, restaurants sit half-full, and local economies feel the pain.

For Canadian travelers, the decision to stay home is not just about money. It’s about sentiment. It’s about choosing to spend tourism dollars in places where they feel welcome.

And for the U.S. tourism industry, the message is clear: no amount of marketing can overcome a trade war.

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## Disclaimer

*This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available information as of September 2026. Trade policies, tourism data, and geopolitical situations are subject to rapid change. The author does not endorse any specific travel destinations, investment strategies, or political positions. Before making any travel or financial decisions based on the content of this article, please consult with qualified professionals who can evaluate your specific situation.*