Ryanair Cuts Winter Flights to Fight Soaring Fuel Costs—and Warns Fares Will Rise

 Ryanair Cuts Winter Flights to Fight Soaring Fuel Costs—and Warns Fares Will Rise

**The airline expects to carry two million fewer passengers this winter as a result of the price rises, and warns ticket prices could climb "materially" next year .**

Europe’s largest low-cost airline is doing something it almost never does: cutting flights. Ryanair has announced it will reduce its winter schedule in a bid to offset the relentless rise in jet fuel prices caused by the ongoing US-Iran war .

The move is a strategic retreat for an airline that has historically chased market share at all costs, and it signals a harsh new reality for the European aviation sector.

## The Numbers: What the Cuts Actually Mean

### Two Million Fewer Passengers

Ryanair has lowered its full-year passenger forecast from 216 million to **214 million** for the fiscal year ending March 2027 . This two-million-passenger reduction is a direct result of the decision to scale back flights during the unprofitable winter months .

The Irish airline expects traffic during the November-to-March period to be **"broadly flat"** compared to last year, rather than growing as originally planned .

### Cutting Losses by Up to €100 Million

While the cuts will reduce the number of seats available, they are designed to protect the airline's bottom line. Ryanair estimates the one-off winter schedule reduction could cut its seasonal losses by between **€70 million and €100 million** .

### The Summer Picture

Despite the winter cuts, the airline is on track to grow its summer traffic by more than 5%, from 138 million passengers to 145 million . In August, the airline carried 22.2 million passengers—a 6% increase from the same month last year—with load factors holding steady at a remarkable 96% .

## Why Ryanair Is Cutting Back: The Fuel Math

### The War Premium

Jet fuel prices have surged since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February. Last week, jet fuel averaged **$157 a barrel**, a more than 70% increase from the start of the year and double the rise in crude costs .

### The Hedging Buffer

Ryanair has **hedged about 80% of its fuel needs for the financial year through March 2027 at around $67 a barrel** . This hedging provides a significant cushion against the current market price of about $140 per barrel .

However, the remaining 20%—which is exposed to the spot market—has become a massive financial drag. The airline said that to reduce losses on this unhedged fuel during the traditionally weak winter months, it made "strategic sense" to reduce capacity .

### "Some Competitors May Not Survive"

Ryanair also used the announcement to deliver a warning to its rivals. The airline said that if high oil prices continue, **European short-haul airfares will increase "materially"** to reflect the higher costs .

It also suggested that "some less well-hedged competitors" could struggle to maintain capacity or **"even survive"** the coming winter season . This could ultimately reduce supply and strengthen Ryanair's pricing power .

## What It Means for Passengers

Ryanair has already begun reshaping its network. It is removing five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and cutting about two million seats from its Brussels winter schedule . The airline has also closed its base in Thessaloniki, Greece, and withdrawn several routes .

For travelers, the message is clear: with fares already under pressure from the war and demand, the days of ultra-cheap flights may be numbered. As Ryanair itself has warned, the era of rock-bottom fares could be coming to an end.