The $562 Million Payday: How Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Are Cashing In on Anthropic’s IPO

 

The $562 Million Payday: How Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Are Cashing In on Anthropic’s IPO Without Buying a Single Share

**By [moonlight editory team ] | October 27, 2026 | 11-Minute Read**

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## The Short Version (For the Busy American)

While the world argues about whether Anthropic is worth $1.5 trillion or $2 trillion, the banks underwriting the deal have already locked in their payday.

Evercore ISI analyst **Glenn Schorr** estimates Anthropic’s blockbuster IPO will generate a **roughly $562 million fee pool** for the Wall Street banks running the show. That’s about **1% of fourth-quarter consensus earnings per share** across the banks he covers .

The breakdown is a masterclass in Wall Street hierarchy. **Goldman Sachs** and **Morgan Stanley**, the two lead underwriters, are each projected to haul in **$112 million**. **Bank of America**, **Citigroup**, and **JPMorgan** are each looking at **$84 million** .

**The punchline:** This is the rare story where the banks win regardless of whether Anthropic’s stock moons or craters. The fees are booked. The prestige is locked. And the real question isn’t whether the banks make money—it’s whether the rest of us are about to get a front-row seat to the most expensive AI gamble in history.

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## The Fee Structure: Who Gets What and Why

Let me walk you through the math, because the hierarchy reveals how Wall Street really works.

### The Top of the Pyramid

Anthropic’s S-1 filing lists **22 banks** in its underwriting syndicate. But not all roles are created equal .

**Goldman Sachs** holds the **“lead left”** position—the most coveted slot. That means Goldman leads the roadshow, dictates pricing and allocation, and takes the biggest slice of fees . It’s the same role Goldman played in SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO in June, where it and Morgan Stanley each collected about **$100 million** from a roughly **$500 million fee pool** .

**Morgan Stanley** is the **“stabilization agent.”** That means Morgan Stanley is responsible for propping up the stock price if it falls in the first days of trading . It’s a critical role for a mega-IPO, and it commands the second-biggest fee slice.

**JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Barclays, and Wells Fargo** round out the next tier, each getting a smaller but still substantial cut .

### The Math That Matters

Evercore’s $562 million estimate is based on the SpaceX fee rate, the allocation structure, and a range of potential proceeds . At **$562 million**, the fee pool is roughly **1% of the banks’ combined Q4 earnings**—meaning it’s meaningful, but not transformative, for institutions of this size.

A separate analysis by AInvest put the fee pool at roughly **$700 million** at a 70-basis-point underwriting fee, but noted that even that number is “around a quarter of one percent of one underwriter” like Goldman Sachs, which is worth about **$257 billion** .

Translation: **the fees are nice, but the prestige and the relationship are the real prizes.**

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## The Human Touch: Why This Matters Beyond Wall Street

Let me put this in terms that actually connect to your life.

### The IPO Machine Is Back

For two years, the IPO market was frozen. Rising interest rates and AI skepticism kept companies private and investors cautious. Anthropic’s filing—and the fee frenzy it’s generating—signals that **the machine is thawing**.

When banks see a $562 million fee pool, they fight for a piece. When they fight for a piece, they compete on relationships, research, and execution. That competition is what turns a single IPO into a **pipeline**. If Anthropic prices well, the next 20 AI companies that were waiting on the sidelines will file. And the banks will be there to collect the fees.

For American investors, that means **more options, more liquidity, and more competition** for your capital. It also means more risk—because IPOs are how private-market valuations meet public-market reality, and the collision isn’t always gentle.

### Your 401(k) Owns the Banks

If you own an S&P 500 index fund, you own Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan. The $562 million in fees flows directly into their revenue, which flows into their earnings, which flows into your retirement account.

The fee windfall is small relative to the banks’ overall earnings, but it’s **high-margin, low-risk revenue**—the kind that investors love. And it signals that the capital markets business, which had been sluggish, is waking up.

### The Prestige Premium

There’s a reason banks fight for the “lead left” slot even when the fees are modest. **Being the lead bank on the biggest IPO in history is a marketing asset.**

Goldman and Morgan Stanley can tell every future AI startup: *We took Anthropic public.* They can tell every institutional investor: *We priced the deal that defined the AI era.* That reputation translates into **future mandates**, future fees, and future relationships.

The $112 million is nice. The bragging rights are worth more.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

### How much will the banks make from Anthropic’s IPO?

Evercore ISI estimates a **$562 million fee pool**. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are projected to each earn **$112 million**. Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan are each projected at **$84 million** .

### Why do Goldman and Morgan Stanley get more than JPMorgan?

Because of their roles. **Goldman Sachs** is the **“lead left”** underwriter—it runs the roadshow, sets pricing, and allocates shares. **Morgan Stanley** is the **“stabilization agent”**—it manages the stock’s first days of trading. Those are the two most critical and most prestigious roles, and they command the biggest fees .

### Is $562 million a lot for a $100 billion IPO?

It’s actually **relatively low**. A typical $1 billion IPO commands fees of **4% to 7%**. Mega-IPOs like Anthropic’s command much lower rates—often around **0.5% to 1%**—because the banks are competing for prestige and future business, not just the fee . SpaceX negotiated its fee pool to roughly **0.58%** of the amount raised .

### How does this compare to SpaceX’s IPO?

SpaceX raised **$86.2 billion** and paid a fee pool of roughly **$500 million**. Goldman and Morgan Stanley each collected about **$100 million** . Anthropic’s fee pool is projected to be slightly larger—**$562 million**—because the deal size is potentially larger.

### Do the banks make money even if Anthropic’s stock falls after the IPO?

**Yes.** The underwriting fee is paid when the deal closes, regardless of what happens to the stock afterward. The banks’ risk is limited to the **stabilization role**—Morgan Stanley may have to buy shares to support the price—but the core fee is booked.

### What is a “stabilization agent” and why does it matter?

The stabilization agent is responsible for **making sure trading runs smoothly** on the first day. If the stock falls below the IPO price, the agent can buy shares to prop it up. It’s a critical role for a mega-IPO because a chaotic first day can damage investor confidence and the company’s reputation .

### Should I buy bank stocks because of this fee windfall?

I can’t give personalized investment advice. What I can tell you is that **the fee is small relative to the banks’ overall earnings**—about 1% of Q4 consensus EPS . It’s a nice bump, not a transformative event. The bigger story is what the IPO signals about the **health of the capital markets pipeline**.

### What does this mean for the AI trade?

It means the **financial infrastructure** of the AI boom is alive and well. Even as AI stocks have sold off and debt markets have tightened, the IPO market is still willing to absorb a trillion-dollar AI company. If Anthropic prices well, it could **reopen the IPO window** for a generation of AI startups waiting to go public.

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## The Path Forward: What to Watch

### The Final Fee Pool

Evercore’s $562 million is an estimate. The actual fee pool will depend on the **final deal size**, the **underwriting discount**, and the **allocation of shares** among the 22 banks. Watch for the final prospectus to reveal the exact terms.

### The Pricing

The fee pool is set as a percentage of proceeds. If Anthropic prices at the high end of its range, the pool grows. If it prices lower—as reports suggest it might, cutting the valuation from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion—the pool shrinks .

### The First Day of Trading

Morgan Stanley’s stabilization role will be tested. If the stock trades above the IPO price, the role is easy. If it falls, Morgan Stanley may have to deploy capital to support it. Watch the first-day trading action for signs of how well the deal was priced.

### The Pipeline

The most important long-term signal. If Anthropic’s IPO is successful, other AI companies will file. The banks that worked on Anthropic—especially Goldman and Morgan Stanley—will be first in line for those mandates.

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## Conclusion: The Sure Thing in an Uncertain Bet

Here’s what I want you to take away from Anthropic’s IPO fee bonanza.

The AI trade is uncertain. Anthropic’s valuation is debated. The stock could soar or crash. The entire sector is facing credit stress, slowing growth, and a Federal Reserve that might hike rates again.

But the banks? The banks are getting paid.

**$562 million** in fees. **$112 million** each for Goldman and Morgan Stanley. **$84 million** for JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup. The money is booked before a single share trades. The prestige is locked before the first price is printed.

That’s the beauty of being the house. You don’t bet on the outcome. You take a cut of the action.

For American investors, the message is a reminder of how the financial machine works. The people who build the AI models take enormous risks. The people who buy the stock take enormous risks. The banks that underwrite the deal take almost none—and they get paid either way.

Anthropic might change the world. The banks will just get richer.

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## Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a licensed financial advisor. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Data and figures cited are accurate as of the date of publication but may change. The author holds no position in any securities mentioned.

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