Crude Futures Pick Up After Heavy Selling—But the Technical Bounce Doesn't Mean the War Is Over

 

Crude Futures Pick Up After Heavy Selling—But the Technical Bounce Doesn't Mean the War Is Over

**By [moonlight editory team] | November 11, 2026 | 11-Minute Read**

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## The Short Version (For the Busy American)

Oil prices bounced on Wednesday morning, but don't mistake a technical rebound for a fundamental shift.

**Crude futures picked up after sliding to two-month lows** on optimism about a possible negotiated solution to the U.S.-Iran conflict. West Texas Intermediate, which had fallen to around **$86 a barrel**, rose modestly in early trading. Ritterbusch & Associates described the move as a **technical rebound "with selling beginning to dry up amid profit-taking from the shorts following the dramatic price plunge since the beginning of last week"** .

The firm added a caveat that should keep every American driver grounded: **additional downside follow-through will rely on further loosening in global oil balances**, which is "quite possible," but not guaranteed .

**The punchline:** The selling that drove oil to two-month lows has paused. But the forces that drove it there—the possibility of peace with Iran, the seasonal decline in demand, and the massive refinery bottleneck—haven't gone anywhere. This is a breather, not a resolution.

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## What Actually Happened: The Two-Week Plunge

Let me walk you through the sequence, because the speed of this decline matters.

### The Trump Signal

The catalyst was President Trump's comments to CNN on Sunday. He said renewed strikes on Iran were **"highly unlikely"** as long as negotiations progress. He repeated the phrase five times. The oil market reacted immediately.

**Brent crude**, the international benchmark, settled **5.9% lower at $92.57 a barrel** on Monday—its lowest close since August 31. **WTI** dropped **4.4% to $86.85** . Last week, Brent recorded its **biggest weekly decline since April 2020** .

### The Seasonal Tailwind

Here's the part that has nothing to do with geopolitics. Every year, gas prices fall in the autumn. The summer driving season ends. Refineries finish maintenance and ramp up output. Stations switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline. Demand drops.

Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy was blunt about this: **"Many will assume the election had something to do with it, but that's a myth. Gas prices have fallen in the 30 days leading up to the election every year since 2006 except 2010, and it's typically seasonal"** .

### The Refinery Byproduct

There's a third factor. Refineries are running at maximum speed to produce **diesel and jet fuel**, which are still near record highs. **Gasoline is essentially a byproduct** of that process, and the ramp-up in production has boosted supplies, pushing prices down.

As Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates put it: **"(Refineries are) operating at higher utilization than this time last year to make all the jet fuel and diesel fuel they can, and that makes gasoline really a byproduct, contributing to higher inventories"** .

### The Technical Rebound

By Wednesday, the selling had exhausted itself. The shorts—traders who had bet on lower prices—started taking profits. That's what Ritterbusch called "profit-taking from the shorts." It's a mechanical move, not a fundamental one.

The firm's assessment is worth taking seriously: **the rebound is technical, and additional downside will depend on whether global oil balances loosen further**—which is "quite possible" but not certain .

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## The Human Touch: What This Means at the Pump

Let me put this in terms that actually connect to your wallet.

### The Relief Is Real—For Now

The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline dipped below **$4 for the first time since July** earlier this week. It's now hovering around **$3.98** . A **15-gallon fill-up** costs about **$59.70**, down from **$65.55** a month ago.

That's real money. For a family with two cars filling up twice a month each, it's **$24 a month**—enough to notice.

### The Diesel Squeeze Remains

Here's the part the gasoline headlines miss. **Diesel is still near record highs**. It hit **$6.52 a gallon in September** and is down only about **5%** since then. Jet fuel is down only about **2%** .

The refining bottleneck—damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia—won't be fixed by a diplomatic signal. Diesel is the fuel that moves trucks, trains, and farm equipment. When diesel stays high, **everything stays expensive**.

### The Political Irony

The timing is impossible to ignore. Gas prices fell below $4 just days after an election where **cost of living was the top issue for voters**. Nearly nine in 10 said it was a crucial or major factor in their vote, according to polling .

Trump promised on the campaign trail that prices would drop. They did—but the reason wasn't his policy. It was a combination of seasonal factors and a diplomatic signal that may or may not hold.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

### Why did oil prices fall to two-month lows?

Because **President Trump signaled he was unlikely to order renewed strikes on Iran**, reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had been baked into oil prices. The decline was amplified by **seasonal factors**—the end of the summer driving season, refinery maintenance finishing, and the switch to winter-blend gasoline—and by **refinery output running at maximum capacity** to produce diesel and jet fuel, creating a surplus of gasoline .

### Why did prices bounce on Wednesday?

Because **selling dried up and shorts began taking profits**. Ritterbusch & Associates described it as a **technical rebound**, not a fundamental shift. The firm said additional downside will depend on whether global oil balances loosen further, which is "quite possible" but not guaranteed .

### Is the Iran war ending?

**Not yet.** Trump's comments are a signal, not a resolution. The attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have continued. A tanker was hit by an unknown projectile on Saturday, and another was struck last Thursday. The diplomatic talks haven't produced a concrete agreement. As TD Securities' Ryan McKay put it: **"Without a concrete agreement, room for further sharp declines in oil prices should be limited"** .

### Will gas prices stay below $4?

**Probably through the winter, but not forever.** Seasonal factors will keep prices low through the colder months. But analysts warn that refinery damage from the wars in the Middle East and Russia has knocked out **7 million barrels a day of refined products capacity** that isn't coming back soon. Tom Kloza, an independent oil analyst, warned: **"Watch out next spring—we're going to go sharply higher"** .

### What's the biggest risk for oil prices?

**That the diplomacy fails.** If the negotiations collapse or the Houthis escalate, the risk premium returns and oil could spike back above $110. The other risk is **a supply glut**. JPMorgan said global oil supply is now exceeding consumption, estimating a surplus of **1.1 million barrels per day in September** and **1.4 million bpd in October**. If the surplus grows, prices could fall further .

### What should I watch next?

**The Iran negotiations**—whether they produce a ceasefire or collapse. **The refinery recovery**—damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia won't be fixed quickly. And **the spring switch**—when warmer weather returns and demand picks up, prices could climb back above $4.

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## The Path Forward: What to Watch

### The Iran Diplomacy

Trump's "highly unlikely" comment is the single most important variable. If the negotiations produce a ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully, oil prices could fall further. If the talks collapse or the attacks escalate, the relief fades.

### The Global Oil Balance

JPMorgan estimates a supply surplus of **1.1 million barrels per day in September** and **1.4 million bpd in October**. If that surplus grows—because of recovering production or weak demand—prices could fall further. If it shrinks, the rebound has legs .

### The Refinery Bottleneck

Even if the war ends, the physical damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia won't be repaired overnight. **7 million barrels a day of refining capacity** has been knocked out. That's a structural constraint that will keep fuel prices elevated for years.

### The Spring Rebound

Analysts are already warning that prices could climb back above $4 in the spring, when demand picks up and the seasonal tailwinds fade. If that happens, the political pressure on the new Congress will intensify.

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## Conclusion: A Technical Bounce, Not a Fundamental Shift

Here's what I want you to take away from Wednesday's oil rebound.

The selling has paused. The shorts are taking profits. The market is catching its breath after a dramatic plunge. That's what Ritterbusch called a **technical rebound**, and that's exactly what it is.

But the forces that drove oil to two-month lows haven't gone away. **Trump's signal on Iran is still just a signal.** The attacks on shipping haven't stopped. The refinery bottleneck is still there. And the seasonal tailwinds will reverse in the spring.

For American drivers, the message is simple: **enjoy the relief at the pump**. Fill up without wincing. But don't assume the crisis is over. The underlying problems—damaged refineries, disrupted supply chains, a war that hasn't ended—are still there. They've just paused.

The oil market is catching its breath. The question is whether it's catching it before another plunge—or before another spike.

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## Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or commodities. The author is not a licensed financial advisor. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Data and figures cited are accurate as of the date of publication but may change. The author holds no position in any securities or commodities mentioned.

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