Why Aug. 4 Could Be a Big Day for the Stock Market

 Why Aug. 4 Could Be a Big Day for the Stock Market

**SpaceX is set to report its first quarterly earnings since its blockbuster IPO—and just days later, over $100 billion in locked-up insider shares could hit the market. Here's what to watch.**

## The Calm Before the Storm

If you're an investor in Elon Musk's newly public rocket and AI empire, you've probably been watching the calendar with a mix of anticipation and anxiety. Next Tuesday, Aug. 4, is the day SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) reports its first quarterly earnings since its historic IPO in June .

But the real drama might not be what the company reports. It's what happens two days later.

On Aug. 6, roughly **20% of locked-up insider shares**—potentially worth more than $100 billion at current prices—will become eligible for sale . With SpaceX stock already down roughly 47% from its high of $225.64, the combination of earnings and unlocking could define the stock's trajectory for the rest of 2026 .

## What Wall Street Is Expecting

Analysts are projecting **second-quarter revenue of roughly $6.8 to $6.9 billion**, representing about 68% year-over-year growth . That would be a significant jump from the $4.69 billion reported in the first quarter, largely driven by the company's AI infrastructure deals .

SpaceX's first-quarter GAAP loss was $1.27 per share, though adjusted losses were significantly smaller . The company's aggressive capital spending—$10.1 billion in the first quarter alone, with $7.7 billion tied to AI infrastructure—will likely keep the company in the red for the foreseeable future . Morgan Stanley expects a smaller adjusted loss of roughly $0.35 per share .

## The Three Numbers That Matter

Here's what analysts and investors will be watching:

**1. Starlink Subscriber Growth**

Starlink is SpaceX's only consistently profitable business, and it's the cash cow funding the rest of Musk's ambitions. Revenue in this segment grew 50% year-over-year in 2025, and the company reported 10.3 million subscribers as of the first quarter . Airlines and telecom firms—including United, Southwest, and T-Mobile—continue to roll out Starlink services, and the company just launched the first batch of next-generation V3 satellites with ten times the bandwidth of the prior version . Analysts are expecting subscriber growth to continue accelerating .

**2. AI Infrastructure Revenue Growth**

This is the part of the business that could surprise investors—or disappoint them. SpaceX has been aggressively monetizing spare compute capacity from its data centers, signing blockbuster deals with Anthropic ($1.25 billion per month), Google ($920 million per month), and Reflection AI ($150 million per month) . Analysts expect AI revenue to jump from $818 million in Q1 to roughly $2.18 billion in Q2 . If these deals are already showing up in the numbers, it could validate the AI infrastructure thesis. If not, skepticism may grow.

**3. Starship Development Costs and Timeline**

The Starship program is the long-term driver of SpaceX's valuation—and its biggest cost center. With 90 Falcon 9 launches completed this year, SpaceX is already turning away launch requests beyond 2028 as it transitions to Starship . But the rocket isn't yet commercially operational. Investors will be listening for updates on Starship's development timeline, the impact of the successful July 24 test flight, and when the company expects to start generating revenue from its next-generation launch system .

## The Lock-Up Tsunami: Aug. 6 Could Be the Real Stress Test

Here's the mechanical reality that could overshadow everything else.

SpaceX's unusual lock-up schedule triggers the first wave of insider shares on **Aug. 6**, the second full trading day after the Q2 earnings release . Roughly 20% of early-release-eligible shares—about 9.1 billion shares worth potentially $100 billion at current prices—will become eligible for sale . An additional 7% of shares will unlock on each of five subsequent dates through late October, meaning the selling pressure could persist for months .

Elon Musk's own shares are excluded from these unlocks and won't be eligible for sale until at least June 2027 . But the early investors and employees who have held shares for years may have a strong incentive to take profits—especially with the stock now trading below its IPO price .

As one analyst put it: "This stream of sell orders could push the share price down. This is what typically happens after an IPO" .

## Should You Buy Before Earnings?

The analysts are split, but the cautious camp seems to have the stronger argument.

**The bull case:** The AI revenue ramp is real, Starlink growth is accelerating, and the long-term addressable market—$28.5 trillion across all three businesses, according to SpaceX management—is massive . Morgan Stanley maintains a $300 price target, arguing that the market is still underestimating the AI business .

**The bear case:** SpaceX still trades at roughly **84 times sales**, more than 13 times the Nasdaq-100's multiple . Even using Wall Street's 2027 revenue estimate of $72.3 billion, the forward P/S ratio is still about 23x—expensive by any measure . And with $100 billion in insider shares set to hit the market in the coming months, the supply-demand dynamic could overwhelm whatever positive news the earnings report delivers .

As one analyst put it: "This is very much a long-term story" . If you're considering buying, the smart money says to keep it on a watch list and see how the lock-up expiration unfolds before making a move .

## The Bottom Line

Aug. 4 is the day SpaceX steps onto the public stage as a reporting company for the first time. The financials matter—but the real drama is the unlock date on Aug. 6. If insiders decide to sell, the stock could face significant downward pressure regardless of what the company reports. The long-term story is compelling, but the short-term mechanics are a wild card.

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## Disclaimer

**IMPORTANT:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information contained herein is based on publicly available sources and reflects the author's understanding as of the publication date. Market conditions, stock prices, and company performance are subject to rapid change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.