Oil Prices Jump to Six‑Week Highs as U.S.-Iran Conflict Intensifies

Oil Prices Jump to Six‑Week Highs as U.S.-Iran Conflict Intensifies

**Brent crude surged past $97 a barrel on Monday, September 7, 2026, as Tehran vowed to strike energy infrastructure across the Middle East in response to renewed U.S. attacks on its oil assets . The escalating tit‑for‑tat strikes have pushed global oil markets to their highest levels since July, with the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the center of the crisis.**

## The Escalation That Shook the Market

Over the weekend, the United States and Iran exchanged direct blows on oil tankers and warships, marking a major intensification of the conflict that began when the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28 . U.S. Central Command reported that American forces struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one near Kharg Island — a critical Iranian oil export hub — following missile attacks on U.S. Navy vessels .

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by targeting three oil tankers sailing through “unauthorised routes” in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as three U.S. vessels in other areas . Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf delivered a stark warning: “Strike our assets and you get struck” .

The attacks have fundamentally changed the nature of the conflict. Maritime intelligence firm Marisks noted that “commercial tankers are now being deliberately used as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure, substantially weakening the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping” .

## The Strait of Hormuz – A Chokepoint Under Siege

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil supply passed before the war, has become the primary battlefield . Vessel traffic through the strait has plummeted to its lowest level since May, with an average of just 10 commodity ships transiting per day over the past 10 days .

“If tanker traffic begins to slow materially, the market could price in a much larger supply shock,” warned Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova. “And there are already signs that this is happening” .

The situation is compounded by Iran’s plan to announce a restricted zone outside the strait in the coming days , while the United Arab Emirates is building alternative trade routes to avoid being “held hostage” by the conflict .

## Oil Prices Hit Six‑Week Highs

By Monday afternoon, **Brent crude futures settled at $97.31 a barrel**, up 1.1%, after earlier touching $98.06 — the highest level since July 24 . **West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 1.3% to $92.65 a barrel**, also reaching a six‑week peak .

Both benchmarks posted strong gains last week — Brent rose about 8% and WTI jumped nearly 10% — as the attacks on shipping reignited supply fears . The war has taken a heavy toll on global oil supply, forcing nations to draw down stockpiles to avoid deficits .

In the United States, gasoline and distillate inventories are now “substantially below” year‑ago and five‑year seasonal averages, according to PVM Energy analysts, who described the situation as “slightly more dire” than just a few weeks ago .

## Broader Regional Tensions Flare

Beyond the U.S.-Iran confrontation, the conflict widened on Monday with Israeli strikes on a town in southern Lebanon that killed at least 12 people, marking one of the deadliest days of bombardment in recent weeks . Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco’s Jazan oil refinery was attacked, with damage still being assessed .

Just a week earlier, a Saudi‑owned tanker was struck by Iran, with two seafarers reported dead . Oman said on Monday it had evacuated 16 crew members from that vessel .

## Goldman Sachs Warns of $120 Oil

Investment bank Goldman Sachs has warned that oil prices could rally as high as **$120 a barrel** if attacks on shipping escalate further . The market is already pricing in the prospect of prolonged disruption — analysts at ANZ noted that a drawn‑out confrontation with periodic military actions “appears the most plausible scenario” .

ANZ expects Middle East oil exports to remain constrained in the long term, with a gradual reopening not expected until late in the fourth quarter of 2026, and flows may not return to pre‑war levels until early 2027 .

## OPEC+ Stays on the Sidelines

In a separate development, OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting on Sunday, as the producer group works to agree on new quotas before deciding its next steps . The decision effectively leaves the market to absorb the supply shock without additional barrels from the cartel.

## The Bottom Line

The oil market is now caught in a dangerous cycle of escalation and retaliation. Each new attack on shipping reinforces the risk premium embedded in crude prices, while the Strait of Hormuz — once a busy shipping lane — has become a chokehold on global energy supplies.

For American drivers, the impact is already visible at the pump: record diesel prices above $5.80 per gallon and gasoline that hit $4.15 over Labor Day weekend. If the conflict continues to intensify, the pain at the pump — and in the broader economy — may only get worse.

Goldman’s $120‑a‑barrel scenario is no longer a worst‑case fantasy. It is becoming the market’s base case.

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## Disclaimer

*This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Oil prices, geopolitical situations, and market conditions are subject to rapid change. The views expressed are based on publicly available information as of September 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before making any investment or financial decisions, please consult with qualified professionals who can evaluate your specific situation.*