Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Trim Losses as Hopes of Hormuz Deal Offset Rising Bond Yields

 

Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Trim Losses as Hopes of Hormuz Deal Offset Rising Bond Yields

**The 30-Year Treasury Just Hit a 22-Year High. Oil Spiked 5%. And Somehow, Stocks Refused to Panic.**

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## The Morning That Almost Went Bad

Let me tell you about a guy named David. He's a financial advisor in Charlotte, North Carolina. Manages about $180 million for families and small businesses. He's been doing this for twenty-three years. He's seen dot-com busts, the 2008 crisis, the COVID crash, and everything in between.

On Thursday morning, David woke up at 5:30 AM, poured his coffee, and opened his laptop to check the overnight futures. His stomach dropped.

The 30-year Treasury yield had just hit a level not seen since 2004. The 10-year was trading above 5.2% — the highest since 2007. Oil was up nearly 5% after Houthi missiles targeted Saudi Arabia's key export terminal at Yanbu. Dow futures were down triple digits before the opening bell.

"Here we go again," David thought.

He started drafting emails to his clients. The kind of emails you write when you're preparing people for a rough day. *Stay calm. Don't panic sell. We've been here before.*

But then something happened. Something that's become the defining feature of this strange, resilient market we're living in.

By the time the closing bell rang, the Dow was down just 161 points — a loss of 0.31%. The S&P 500 had basically flatlined, down 0.02%. And the Nasdaq? It actually finished slightly **higher**.

The market didn't crash. It didn't even stumble. It trimmed its losses and walked away like nothing happened.

David closed his laptop, shook his head, and laughed. "This market refuses to die," he told me later. "I've never seen anything like it."

He's not wrong. And understanding why requires looking at two competing forces that are pulling the market in opposite directions right now — and figuring out which one wins.

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## The Numbers: A Day That Defied Gravity

Let's get the raw data on the table, because the details tell a story that headlines often miss.

**The Closing Bell on Thursday, September 24, 2026:**

| Index | Close | Change |

|-------|-------|--------|

| **Dow Jones Industrial Average** | 51,349.98 | -161.61 (-0.31%) |

| **S&P 500** | 7,704.13 | -1.90 (-0.02%) |

| **Nasdaq Composite** | 26,939.37 | +3.34 (+0.01%) |

The Dow hit a **three-month low** at one point during the session before recovering . The S&P 500 spent most of the morning in negative territory, then clawed its way back to essentially flat . The Nasdaq, buoyed by strength in communication services and healthcare, managed to finish in the green .

Under the surface, the sector picture was revealing:

- **Winners:** Communication Services (XLC), Health Care (XLV), and Energy (XLE) outperformed 

- **Losers:** Materials (XLB), Utilities (XLU), and Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged the most 

Individual movers painted an even more interesting picture:

- **Moderna (MRNA)** surged 6.98% to a **three-year high** 

- **Charles River Laboratories (CRL)** gained 6.17% 

- **Walt Disney (DIS)** rose 2.03% 

- **Walmart (WMT)** fell 2.69% 

- **First Solar (FSLR)** dropped 10.32% 

Breadth was negative — falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 1,769 to 961 on the NYSE — but the major indices held up remarkably well given the macro backdrop .

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## The Bond Market: The Elephant in the Room

If you want to understand why the market was under pressure on Thursday, you have to start with bonds.

The **30-year Treasury yield** reached its highest level since **2004** . The **10-year Treasury yield** climbed to **5.20%** — a level not seen since **2007** . The 30-year approached **5.50%** intraday .

These aren't just numbers. They're signals.

When long-term yields rise this dramatically, it puts pressure on every other asset class. Mortgage rates climb. Corporate borrowing costs increase. The discount rate used to value future earnings goes up, which makes growth stocks — especially tech — less attractive on a relative basis.

"Rising Treasury yields dampened investor sentiment early in the session," one market wrap put it . That's the polite way of saying: the bond market was throwing a tantrum, and stocks were feeling the heat.

But here's the nuance that matters: **the bond selloff wasn't driven by fears of a Fed rate hike**. It was driven by **oil**.

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## The Oil Shock: Houthi Missiles and the Strait of Hormuz

While the bond market was making headlines, the oil market was making waves.

**Brent crude** jumped **3.4%** to close at **$106.60 per barrel** — the highest close since mid-September . **WTI crude** rose **2.7%** to **$94.61** .

At the peak of the session, both contracts were up nearly **5%** .

The trigger? A missile attack by Houthi rebels targeting **Yanbu**, Saudi Arabia's key oil export terminal on the Red Sea . Saudi-led coalition forces intercepted six ballistic missiles, but the message was clear: the conflict that's been simmering for months is far from over.

Yanbu matters because it's the western terminus of the East-West Pipeline, which allows Saudi Arabia to export crude **bypassing the Strait of Hormuz** . If that terminal is threatened, the supply of oil to global markets — already tight — becomes even tighter.

"Supply indicators are extremely tight," one analyst noted. "Traders are paying record premiums for immediate delivery at the US's largest storage hub" .

Rising oil prices feed into inflation expectations, which feed into Treasury yields, which feed into everything else. That's the chain reaction that had the market on edge.

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## The Hope Trade: Hormuz Reopening Talks

But here's where the story takes a turn.

Just as the bond market was pressuring stocks and oil was spiking, news emerged from New York that changed the narrative.

According to Bloomberg and Reuters, **US and Iranian negotiators were exploring a phased agreement** that would include:

- **Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz** to free navigation

- **The US lifting its economic blockade** on Iranian ports 

The talks, mediated by Qatar, were taking place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly . If successful, a phased deal would resemble the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding signed in June — a ceasefire that unfortunately collapsed a few weeks later .

The market reaction was immediate. Oil gave back a significant portion of its gains . Treasury yields reversed course and dipped . And stocks — which had been languishing in negative territory all morning — surged to trim their losses.

"The market's pricing logic is clear," one analysis noted. "If the Strait reopens, concerns over oil transport disruptions would ease, and the conflict risk premium supporting oil prices would weaken. Expectations of de-escalation could also improve investor sentiment" .

But the recovery was limited. And the reason why is the story of this market in 2026.

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## Why the Rally Fizzled

Stocks didn't turn positive. They just stopped falling.

The Dow finished down 161 points. The S&P was essentially flat. Only the Nasdaq managed a tiny gain.

Why couldn't the bulls take control?

**Skepticism is running high.**

"We've seen this movie before," one strategist put it. "Previous breakthrough signals failed to materialize" .

The obstacles to a deal are substantial. Both sides are unwilling to surrender leverage first . The sequencing of concessions — who opens the Strait first, who lifts the blockade first — remains unresolved. And trust between Washington and Tehran is, to put it mildly, in short supply.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told US media he was "willing to end the war before the US midterm elections in November," but markets barely reacted . Words have been cheap before.

The midterm elections add another layer of complexity. Trump has suggested a deal might come **after** the November 3 elections . Former US negotiator Dennis Ross argues the incentive to reach agreement may actually be stronger **before** the election, because lowering oil and gasoline prices is politically valuable . But that's speculation, not certainty.

So the market did what it's been doing all year: it took the good news, priced in a little hope, and then remembered that hope isn't a strategy.

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## The Human Cost: What Rising Yields Mean for Real People

Let me bring this back to the human level, because that's where the story lives.

**The Homebuyer**

Remember the mortgage story? The one about rates topping 7%? Rising Treasury yields are the engine behind that pain. Every basis point the 10-year rises makes mortgages more expensive. Every potential homebuyer watching rates climb faces a choice: buy now and stretch, or wait and hope.

For families already priced out of the market, Thursday's bond action was another punch in the gut.

**The Small Business Owner**

Small businesses borrow money too. Lines of credit, equipment loans, expansion capital — all of it gets more expensive when Treasury yields rise. A restaurant owner in Ohio who was planning to open a second location might now be running the numbers again, wondering if the math still works.

**The Retiree**

Rising yields aren't all bad. If you're living on fixed income, higher Treasury yields mean better returns on savings and bonds. But if you're holding a portfolio of stocks and bonds, the double whammy of falling bond prices and stagnant stock prices is painful.

**The Financial Advisor**

David, the advisor in Charlotte, spent Thursday morning calming clients who were watching the 30-year yield hit levels they'd never seen. "People see '22-year high' and they panic," he told me. "They don't realize that the world doesn't end when yields go up. It just changes the math."

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## Frequently Asked Questions

**Q: Why did the stock market trim its losses on Thursday?**

A: News that US and Iranian negotiators were exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift economic sanctions provided hope that oil supply disruptions could ease. This optimism helped stocks recover from their morning lows, though gains were limited by skepticism about whether a deal would actually materialize .

**Q: What happened with bond yields?**

A: The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2004, and the 10-year yield climbed to 5.20%, the highest since 2007. Rising oil prices drove inflation concerns, pushing yields higher. However, yields reversed course briefly after the Hormuz deal news emerged .

**Q: Why are oil prices so important to the stock market?**

A: Oil prices affect inflation expectations. When oil rises, investors worry about higher costs for businesses and consumers, which can lead to higher interest rates. Higher rates pressure stock valuations, especially for growth companies. Oil also directly impacts energy sector profits and consumer spending .

**Q: What is the Strait of Hormuz, and why does it matter?**

A: The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil passes through it. Iran has threatened to block shipping through the Strait in response to US sanctions, which has kept oil prices elevated and created uncertainty for global markets .

**Q: Is the market going to crash if the Hormuz deal falls through?**

A: Not necessarily. The market has been remarkably resilient despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, if the conflict escalates and oil supply is genuinely disrupted, stocks could face more significant pressure. Much depends on whether the situation deteriorates or de-escalates .

**Q: What should investors do right now?**

A: That depends on your individual situation. Some analysts, like HSBC, remain "maximum overweight" on stocks and recommend tilting toward technology . Others are more cautious given the bond market volatility. The key is to focus on your time horizon and risk tolerance, not short-term market moves. This article is not financial advice.

**Q: How does the midterm election affect the market?**

A: Historically, the period from September to midterms and from midterms to year-end has produced positive returns for the S&P 500 more than 50% of the time . Some analysts believe Democrats winning the House could lead to policy adjustments that benefit markets. Others see the election as a wildcard that could go either way .

**Q: What sectors performed best on Thursday?**

A: Communication Services, Health Care, and Energy outperformed. Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples lagged. This suggests investors are favoring sectors with more defensive characteristics or direct exposure to the oil price move .

**Q: Why did Moderna surge nearly 7%?**

A: Moderna rose to a three-year high on Thursday, though the specific catalyst wasn't immediately clear from available reporting. The broader healthcare sector outperformed, suggesting sector rotation may have played a role .

**Q: What's the outlook for the rest of the year?**

A: Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both have year-end targets of 8,000 for the S&P 500, implying meaningful upside from current levels. They cite strong corporate earnings growth, AI investment, and historical midterm election patterns as reasons for optimism . However, geopolitical risks and bond market volatility remain wildcards.

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## Conclusion: A Market That Refuses to Break

Here's what I keep coming back to when I think about Thursday's session.

The 30-year Treasury yield hit a **22-year high**. Oil spiked **5%** on missile attacks in the Middle East. The Dow fell to a **three-month low** intraday. Every ingredient for a significant selloff was present.

And yet.

The Dow finished down just 0.31%. The S&P 500 was flat. The Nasdaq was slightly higher. The market took a punch and barely flinched.

That's not normal. But it's become the new normal.

This is a market that has been through a global pandemic, a historic inflation surge, the fastest rate hike cycle in decades, a regional banking crisis, multiple wars, and a US-Iran conflict that's now in its seventh month. And it's still trading near record highs.

Why? Because the underlying fundamentals remain strong. Corporate earnings are growing at double-digit rates. The AI investment boom shows no signs of slowing. Unemployment is low. Consumers, while stressed, are still spending.

And crucially, every time a crisis flares up, the market finds a reason to hope it will be resolved. Sometimes that hope is justified. Sometimes it's not. But the market keeps buying the dip, keeps looking for the silver lining, keeps refusing to give in to fear.

For David, the advisor in Charlotte, that resilience is both reassuring and frustrating. "It's hard to talk clients out of panic when the market keeps proving that panic is unnecessary," he says. "But it's also hard to explain why everything is fine when the headlines look like the world is ending."

That's the paradox of this market. The headlines are terrifying. The numbers are resilient. And somewhere in between, ordinary Americans are trying to figure out what it all means for their jobs, their savings, and their futures.

The answer, as always, is uncertain. But if Thursday is any indication, this market isn't ready to give up.

Not yet.

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## Disclaimer

**This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. The author has no positions in any securities or commodities mentioned. Information presented here is based on publicly available sources and reported figures as of the publication date. Market conditions change rapidly. The scenarios and anecdotes described are illustrative and do not represent specific individuals. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.**