The Diesel Bomb: Why Trump's Export Ban Could Backfire on Every American Driver

 

The Diesel Bomb: Why Trump's Export Ban Could Backfire on Every American Driver

**Diesel just hit $6.53 a gallon. Republicans are begging for a ban. And the experts say it could make your gas prices worse—not better.**

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## The Number That Broke the Camel's Back

Let me give you a number that should make you pull over and check your fuel gauge.

**$6.53.**

That's the national average price for a gallon of diesel as of September 22, 2026. It's the highest price ever recorded—higher than the peak during the 2022 energy crisis, higher than after Russia invaded Ukraine .

Diesel is up **83% this year**. That's on track to be the biggest annual increase since AAA started tracking prices in 2000 .

And diesel isn't just for big rigs and tractors. It's the fuel that moves everything. The trucks that deliver your groceries. The trains that haul your Amazon packages. The tractors that harvest your food. The construction equipment that builds your roads.

When diesel goes up, **everything goes up**. Your groceries. Your clothes. Your Amazon deliveries. Your new house. The cost of diesel is baked into the price of literally everything you buy.

That's why Republicans are panicking. That's why President Trump just said he'd back a ban on diesel exports. And that's why energy experts are warning that this "solution" could make things **worse**, not better.

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## What Trump Actually Said

On Tuesday, September 22, standing alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly, President Trump was asked whether he supported a ban on U.S. diesel exports—a proposal that some Republican midterm candidates have been pushing hard.

His answer was unambiguous.

"I've called for that, too," Trump said. "I've said, 'Let's not send out the diesel.' We make a lot of diesel. I've called for it within my people. I've been talking about it" .

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, standing nearby, added that the administration is "examining whether it's feasible in terms of the overall refining capacity and whether a full or partial ban would work" .

The White House later declined to answer follow-up questions, referring reporters back to the president's remarks .

But the message was clear: **The Trump administration is actively considering an export ban on diesel.**

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## Why Diesel Is So Expensive (The Real Story)

Before we get to whether a ban would work, let's understand why diesel costs so much in the first place.

The short answer: **war and refinery attacks**.

### The Iran War and the Strait of Hormuz

Before the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began in late February, about **20% of the world's oil** passed through the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman .

After the war started, shipping through Hormuz **collapsed by roughly 90%** . Gulf producers were forced to cut output. Global oil supply dropped by an estimated **8 million barrels per day** .

For diesel specifically, this is catastrophic. Before the war, Persian Gulf countries exported over **3 million barrels per day** of diesel and gasoil. Combined with Russia, those two regions accounted for nearly **45% of global seaborne diesel trade** .

When one of the two largest diesel export hubs is cut off, the shortage becomes global.

### Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Refineries

Russia is the world's **second-largest diesel exporter** . But Ukrainian drone strikes have systematically targeted Russian refineries.

In July, Russian refinery throughput fell to **3.8 million barrels per day**—its lowest level in more than two decades. Petroleum product exports dropped to **1.2 million barrels per day**, compared to 2.3 million a year earlier .

Trump himself acknowledged this, telling reporters: "It is a serious hit on the Russians. It's also a serious hit on the price of diesel" .

### The Refining Crunch

Even before the wars, diesel supplies were tight. According to the International Energy Agency, global oil product inventories were already at historically low levels .

U.S. distillate stocks fell by about **17 million barrels in two weeks**, reaching a seasonal low .

And here's the kicker: American refineries are running at **98% capacity** . They can't produce more diesel even if they wanted to.

"We're at the limit," one analyst said. "The system has no slack" .

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## The Export Ban: Why Economists Are Terrified

Now let's get to the controversial part.

The idea behind an export ban is simple: If Americans are paying too much for diesel, stop selling it to foreigners. Keep the fuel at home. Prices fall.

But energy economists say that's **exactly backwards**.

### The Gulf Coast vs. The Coasts

Here's the geography problem that most people don't understand.

The United States is not one oil market. It's several.

The **Gulf Coast**—Texas, Louisiana—has massive refining capacity. It produces more diesel than it needs. That surplus gets exported.

The **East Coast** and **West Coast**, on the other hand, don't have enough refining capacity. They **import** diesel from other countries to meet demand .

So what happens if you ban exports?

According to Bob McNally, a former energy official in the George W. Bush administration: "If he bans exports, **the coasts are screwed**" .

Diesel prices would **plunge** in Texas and Louisiana—because that surplus would be trapped domestically.

But prices would **spike** on the East and West Coasts—because those regions would lose access to imports that were previously available, while being too far from Gulf Coast refineries to benefit .

The net national effect? **Uncertain at best. Negative at worst.**

"You would have an abrupt collapse in prices in Texas, Louisiana, maybe the Upper Midwest," McNally said. "On the coast, I don't think they fall much. They probably go higher" .

### The Refinery Shutdown Problem

There's another problem.

If you trap diesel in the Gulf Coast, refiners there lose their export markets. Their revenues drop. What do they do?

They **cut production** .

Less production means less supply. And when supply falls, prices rise again—often higher than before.

McNally described it as a short-term reprieve followed by a rebound: "For a while, you would see a collapse. But then refiners would reduce runs and prices would rise again" .

### The Global Backlash

And then there's the geopolitical cost.

The United States exports diesel to **Europe, Latin America, and allies around the world**. If we cut them off, we're not just hurting them—we're damaging our own reputation as a reliable energy partner.

"The US would shatter its reputation as a safe place to invest for a generation," McNally warned .

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## What the Experts Are Saying

The consensus among energy experts is remarkably unified: **an export ban is a bad idea**.

Bob McNally, former Bush energy official: "This is taking a sledgehammer to the problem. It would be an authentic policy error, or what I call an 'APE.' In fact, this would be **the king of the APEs**" .

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told CNBC he's "not at all confident" an export ban would lower prices and cautioned it could "actually hurt Americans" .

Garrett Golding, assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Surging global diesel prices "will boomerang back" onto the East Coast .

A White House official told CNN on Monday that the administration was **not considering** an export ban—though that was before Trump's comments on Tuesday .

Rapidan Energy Group, where McNally works, has maintained a **35% probability** on export restrictions since April. But McNally said that number could rise if prices don't come down soon .

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## Frequently Asked Questions

**Q: What exactly is an export ban on diesel?**

A: It would prohibit U.S. companies from selling diesel fuel to foreign buyers. The diesel would have to stay in the United States. Proponents argue this would increase domestic supply and lower prices for American consumers.

**Q: Why are diesel prices so high right now?**

A: A combination of two wars. The U.S.-Iran conflict has cut off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of the world's oil. Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged Russian refineries, reducing the world's second-largest diesel exporter's output. Global diesel inventories were already low, and U.S. refineries are running at 98% capacity—they can't produce more .

**Q: Would an export ban actually lower prices for Americans?**

A: It depends on where you live. Prices would likely **fall** in the Gulf Coast and Midwest, where diesel is produced. But prices would likely **rise** on the East and West Coasts, which rely on imports. The national average might not fall at all—and could rise .

**Q: Why would the coasts be hurt by an export ban?**

A: The East and West Coasts don't have enough refining capacity. They import diesel from other countries. If the U.S. bans exports, those countries might retaliate by cutting off imports to the U.S. Meanwhile, the coasts are too far from Gulf Coast refineries to easily replace those imports .

**Q: What do Republicans want?**

A: Several Republican lawmakers from agriculture-heavy states have called for an export ban. Sen. Chuck Grassley posted on X: "High diesel prices ARE KILLING FARMERS INCOME." Rep. Tim Burchett introduced legislation to ban diesel exports. Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry has called for a 90-day ban .

**Q: What do Democrats and energy experts say?**

A: Most energy economists—regardless of political affiliation—oppose an export ban. They argue it would provide only temporary relief, raise prices on the coasts, damage relationships with allies, and hurt U.S. refiners. Even Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, a Trump appointee, has expressed skepticism .

**Q: What is Trump's actual position?**

A: Trump said he supports the idea and has "called for it within my people." But he also acknowledged it could have "a little bit of an effect" on gasoline prices. The White House has not committed to a timeline or said definitively that a ban will happen .

**Q: Will this affect gasoline prices too?**

A: Possibly. Diesel and gasoline are produced from the same crude oil. Refineries can adjust their output mix, but there are limits. If diesel exports are banned and refiners cut production, gasoline supply could also tighten. Trump himself acknowledged this, saying a ban could have "a little bit of an effect on regular automobile gasoline" .

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## Conclusion: The Sledgehammer vs. The Scalpel

Here's the uncomfortable truth.

Diesel prices are at record highs. That's a real crisis for farmers, truckers, and every American who buys anything that moves on a truck.

The political pressure to "do something" is enormous. Midterm elections are weeks away. Voters are angry. Republicans are scared.

But the "something" that's being proposed—an export ban—is a **sledgehammer**, not a scalpel.

It would provide temporary relief in some regions while causing pain in others. It would damage relationships with allies who depend on American diesel. It would discourage investment in U.S. refining capacity. And it might not even lower the national average price at all.

The real solutions are harder and slower. Ending the wars that are disrupting supply. Investing in refinery capacity. Building strategic reserves. Reducing demand through efficiency and electrification.

None of those things can happen before November.

So the question becomes: **Will Trump pull the trigger on a policy that economists across the political spectrum say is a mistake?**

McNally's answer: There's a **35% chance** he will—and the odds are rising .

For American drivers, that's a gamble they didn't ask for. And the stakes are everything they buy.

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## Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Energy markets are volatile and unpredictable, and prices can change rapidly. The information presented is based on public reports and expert commentary as of the publication date and is subject to change. Readers should consult qualified professionals before making any investment or financial decisions. The author has no financial interest in any companies or commodities mentioned.

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