Stock Market Today

 Stock Market Today: AI Jitters and $110 Oil Just Killed the Relief Rally—And a South Korean IPO Just Made It Worse

**By [Your Name] | October 20, 2026 | 12-Minute Read**

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## The Short Version (For the Busy American)

Monday's relief rally lasted exactly one day.

U.S. stock futures turned lower Tuesday morning as **AI jitters returned with a vengeance** and **Brent crude pushed back above $110 a barrel**. Nasdaq 100 futures fell **0.3% to 0.7%**, while S&P 500 futures hovered near the flatline. The Dow was the only index holding up, thanks to its lighter tech weighting .

But the story that really matters came from **Seoul, not New York**. South Korean data-center company **Elice Inc.** plunged **33% on its trading debut**—the worst opening day for a major Korean IPO on record. The company had raised $151 million, priced at the top of its range, with retail investors oversubscribing 400 times. They lost their shirts anyway .

**The punchline:** Elice isn't CoreWeave. It's smaller, differently financed, and arguably healthier. But the market doesn't care. If you're an AI infrastructure company going public right now, investors are going to punish you—and that's a warning for every American investor holding AI stocks in their 401(k).

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## The Numbers That Matter

Let's cut through the noise and get to what actually counts.

### The Pre-Market Picture

| Index | Futures Change |

|-------|----------------|

| **Nasdaq 100** | **-0.3% to -0.7%** |

| **S&P 500** | **-0.1% to -0.3%** |

| **Dow Jones** | **+0.1% to +0.3%** |

*Source: Investing.com, TipRanks, Morningstar* 

The divergence tells the story. Money is rotating **out of tech and into defensives**—again. The Dow's gains are being driven by industrial and healthcare names that don't depend on AI spending.

### The Elice Disaster

| Metric | Detail |

|--------|--------|

| **IPO Price** | 90,500 won |

| **Opening Drop** | **-33% to -38%** |

| **Closing Price** | 61,500 won |

| **Loss** | **-32%** |

| **Retail Subscription** | **400x oversubscribed** |

*Source: Bloomberg, The Edge Malaysia* 

Elice raised **201 billion won ($151 million)** at the top of its marketed range. Retail investors poured roughly **10.3 trillion won** into subscription deposits, hoping to get a piece of the AI boom. They got crushed instead .

### Oil: Back Above $110

Brent crude climbed **1.37% to $111.05** in early trading Tuesday. WTI rose **2.82% to $106.58**. The trigger: Iran's First Vice President said the country had "no choice but to exercise sovereignty" over the **Strait of Hormuz**, and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalated .

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to **282.7 million barrels**—the lowest level since 1982 .

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## Why Elice's Flop Matters for Americans

Let me put this in terms that actually connect to your life.

### The AI IPO Window Is Closing

Elice wasn't supposed to fail. It was profitable, growing fast, and priced at the top of its range. Its financial structure was **different from CoreWeave's**—less leveraged, more sustainable .

And it still got destroyed.

If a profitable Korean data-center company can't survive its IPO, what does that say about the **dozens of AI startups** planning to go public in the next 12 months? What does it say about **Anthropic's $2 trillion IPO**, or the next wave of neoclouds hoping to cash in?

The answer is uncomfortable: **the market is no longer paying any price for AI growth**. It's demanding proof—and it's not getting it.

### Your 401(k) Is Watching This

CoreWeave fell **2.9% to 5%** in premarket trading Tuesday, extending last week's collapse . Nebius dropped **5%**. Micron, SanDisk, Intel, and Qualcomm were all down .

If you own an S&P 500 index fund, you own these companies. If you own a tech-heavy growth fund, you own them in bulk. And if the AI trade keeps unwinding, your retirement account keeps feeling it.

### The Oil Inflation Loop

Every dollar Brent rises feeds into the same cycle that crushed stocks last week: **higher oil → higher inflation → higher Fed rates → lower tech valuations**.

The SPR is at 1982 lows. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. And Washington has no good options left .

For American families, this means gas prices stay high, diesel stays expensive, and the Fed stays hawkish. The war's cost—already **$2,000 per household**—keeps climbing.

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## The Earnings Test: SpaceX and Netflix Tonight

The AI trade's fate may be decided after the closing bell.

### SpaceX (Tuesday, after close)

Wall Street expects **EPS of $0.14 on revenue of $12.9 billion**. That's up from a **$0.09 loss** on $7.8 billion in Q2. Analysts have raised their Q3 estimates by **$2.5 billion** since the last report .

The key metric: **Starlink revenue growth**. The Connectivity segment generated **$4.29 billion in Q2, up 66% year-over-year**. Wall Street wants **$4.45 billion** this quarter. But Starlink's average revenue per user fell from **$85 to $66**—a warning sign that growth is coming from cheaper subscribers, not premium ones .

### Netflix (Tuesday, after close)

Analysts expect **EPS of $0.82, up 39%**, on revenue of **$12.87 billion, up 12%** . The options market is pricing a **9.3% move** in either direction—above the typical post-earnings swing .

Netflix just laid off **1,000 employees**—6% of its workforce—mostly in product, tech, legal, and HR. The stock is down **46% from its peak**. The question isn't whether Netflix is profitable. It's whether the market believes the ad business can reignite growth before engagement fades entirely .

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## Frequently Asked Questions

### Why are stocks falling again on Tuesday?

Two reasons. **First**, AI jitters returned after Monday's brief relief rally. Elice's 33% IPO flop in Seoul reignited fears that the AI infrastructure boom can't justify its valuations. **Second**, oil pushed back above **$110** as Iran threatened the Strait of Hormuz, reviving inflation fears .

### What is Elice and why does its IPO matter?

Elice is a South Korean data-center infrastructure company—a "neocloud" that provides servers, liquid-cooled chips, and cloud services. Its IPO was **400x oversubscribed** by retail investors, priced at the top of its range, and still plunged **33% on day one**. It's the worst opening day for a major Korean IPO on record, and it signals that **investors are done paying any price for AI exposure** .

### Is Elice like CoreWeave?

**No, and that's the point.** Elice is profitable, growing revenue **200% in the first half**, and has a less leveraged financial structure than CoreWeave. It still failed. The market isn't distinguishing between good and bad AI companies right now—it's selling the entire sector .

### What should I watch in SpaceX earnings?

**Starlink revenue growth and subscriber mix**. Q2 Connectivity revenue was $4.29 billion, up 66%. Wall Street wants $4.45 billion. But ARPU fell from $85 to $66, suggesting growth is coming from cheaper markets. If Starlink can't grow revenue per user, the growth story weakens .

### What should I watch in Netflix earnings?

**Ad revenue progress and 2027 guidance**. Netflix is in a "show-me" phase. Analysts want proof that the ad tier can accelerate growth. BMO projects ad revenue growing at a **52% compound rate** to $12.7 billion by 2030. If that path looks credible, the stock could rally. If not, the 46% decline from peak could extend .

### Why is oil above $110 again?

Iran's First Vice President said the country has "no choice but to exercise sovereignty" over the **Strait of Hormuz**, escalating fears of supply disruption. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have also intensified. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at **1982 lows**, leaving Washington with few tools to offset the shock .

### What are the odds of a Fed rate hike?

Markets are pricing a **92.8% chance of a hold** at the October 27-28 meeting, according to LSEG. The hot inflation data from last week initially raised hike odds, but the AI selloff and oil spike have convinced traders that the Fed will wait. A hike would likely trigger another leg down in tech .

### Should I buy the dip in AI stocks?

I can't give personalized investment advice. What I can tell you is that **the market is in a "show-me" phase**. Elice's failure shows that investors are no longer rewarding AI growth stories without proof of returns. The earnings reports from SpaceX and Netflix tonight will provide the first real evidence. If they disappoint, the selloff has further to go. If they surprise, a relief rally is possible.

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## The Path Forward: What to Watch

### The Earnings Doubleheader (Tuesday, after close)

**SpaceX and Netflix** report after the bell. Watch Starlink revenue for SpaceX and ad-tier progress for Netflix. These are the two most important numbers for the AI and streaming trades, respectively.

### Oil and the Strait of Hormuz

Brent at $111 is the inflation trigger. Any further escalation—or any sign of de-escalation—will move markets. Watch for attacks on tankers and Iranian naval activity .

### The Fed (October 27-28)

Markets price a **93% chance of a hold**. If the Fed surprises with a hike, expect another brutal week for tech. If they hold and signal patience, the AI trade might find a floor .

### The AI IPO Pipeline

Elice's failure will make it harder for every AI company planning to go public. Watch for **Anthropic's IPO**—expected next month—and whether the $2 trillion valuation target survives this new environment.

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## Conclusion: The AI Trade Can't Catch a Break

Here's what I want you to take away from Tuesday's market action.

Monday's rally was a **breather**, not a bottom. The AI trade is still under pressure from every direction: rising oil, sticky inflation, hawkish Fed expectations, and—most importantly—**a market that has stopped believing the growth story without proof**.

Elice was supposed to be different. Profitable. Growing. Priced right. It failed anyway. That's the signal that matters.

Tonight, SpaceX and Netflix report. If their numbers are strong, the AI trade might stabilize. If they're weak, the selling resumes.

For American investors, the message is simple: **the easy money in AI is gone**. The next phase will be about execution, cash flow, and proof. The companies that deliver will be rewarded. The ones that don't will face the same fate as Elice—and the retail investors who bet on them.

The relief rally is over. The test begins tonight.

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## Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a licensed financial advisor. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Data and figures cited are accurate as of the date of publication but may change. The author holds no position in any securities mentioned.

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