Trump Called Out Big Oil's Profits—Here's How Much Their Refining Earnings Have Actually Surged Since

 Trump Called Out Big Oil's Profits—Here's How Much Their Refining Earnings Have Actually Surged Since

**By moonlight editory teYour Name] | November 1, 2026 | 12-Minute Read**

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## The Short Version (For the Busy American)

In August, President Trump looked at the profits ExxonMobil and Chevron were raking in and said they were making **"too much money based on a shortage"** . It was a rare moment of populist anger from a president who has otherwise been a cheerleader for the oil industry.

Two months later, the numbers are in. And they are staggering.

ExxonMobil's refining division earned a record **$9.05 billion** in the third quarter—almost **five times higher** than a year earlier. Chevron's refineries pulled in **$4.93 billion**, the highest on record and **more than four times** the year-ago period . Combined, the five Western oil majors—Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies—reported **$56.3 billion in adjusted net income**, the third-highest combined earnings on record .

**The punchline:** Trump was right. Big Oil is making too much money based on a shortage. And the shortage is the war he started.

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## The Numbers That Prove It

Let me walk you through the earnings reports, because the scale of the windfall is almost hard to comprehend.

### ExxonMobil: The Refining Machine

| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change |

|--------|---------|---------|--------|

| **Total Net Income** | **$15.4B** | $7.5B | **+105%** |

| **Refining Earnings** | **$9.05B** | ~$1.8B | **~5x** |

| **Refining Margin** | **$50.30/bbl** | ~$17/bbl | **~3x** |

*Source: Bloomberg, Business Times, RTE* 

For the first time in at least six years, Exxon is earning **more from refining than from drilling** . The company's refining margin hit **$50.30 a barrel**—nearly triple the level a year earlier. It was Exxon's fourth-highest overall profit in its **156-year history** .

Exxon's CFO, Neil Hansen, defended the numbers: *"The most meaningful response to those higher global commodity prices that we can offer as a company is to pull every lever that's available to us to increase supply"* .

### Chevron: The Downstream Surge

Chevron's downstream earnings—the division that includes refining—more than **quadrupled** to **$4.9 billion** from just $1.1 billion a year earlier . Its U.S. refineries ran at **98% capacity**, processing a record **1.09 million barrels a day** .

The company's total net income nearly tripled to **$9.9 billion** . Chevron's Vice Chairman, Mark Nelson, acknowledged the pain at the pump: *"I would expect margins to eventually moderate as refinery runs recover and export flows increase, but that will take some time"* .

### The Broader Windfall

It wasn't just the American majors. **Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies** all reported sharply higher refining margins and beat estimates. BP's adjusted net income hit **$8.46 billion**, with more than half coming from the unit that includes refining and trading .

Independent refiners did even better on a percentage basis. **Valero Energy** earned about **$6.8 billion** in the quarter, up from $1.1 billion a year earlier. **Phillips 66** pulled in roughly **$5.6 billion** .

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## Why This Is Happening

The answer is simple, and it's the story you've been reading about for months.

### The Refining Chokehold

The U.S.-Israel war with Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war have combined to knock out roughly **10% of global refining capacity** . Ukrainian drone strikes have crippled Russian refineries. Middle Eastern infrastructure has been damaged. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.

When refining capacity disappears, the margin on the fuel that *does* get produced explodes. That's exactly what happened.

### The Consumer Pain

Here's the part that makes this politically explosive. While Big Oil was posting record profits, American families were paying record prices at the pump. Gas has averaged **$4.20 a gallon** under Trump—higher than the average under Joe Biden. Diesel is at **$6.32** .

Trump's response has been whiplash-inducing. In August, he criticized the oil companies for making too much money. By late October, he was bragging about it. *"I don't give a damn,"* he said at a rally. *"I'm going to say it. We're making a freaking fortune"* .

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## The Human Touch: What This Means for Your Wallet

Let me put this in terms that actually connect to your life.

### You're Paying for Their Windfall

Every time you fill up your tank, a portion of that money is flowing directly into the refining margins that produced these record profits. Exxon's **$50.30-a-barrel margin** is the gap between what crude costs and what you pay for the fuel made from it.

The companies will tell you they're running their refineries at full capacity to meet demand—and that's true. But the reason they *can* charge these margins is that the war has removed their competitors from the market.

### The Political Problem

With the midterms two days away, these earnings reports are a political grenade. Republicans are already facing a backlash over the cost of living. The fact that oil companies are posting record profits *while* Americans struggle at the pump is exactly the kind of contrast that swing voters remember.

The NGO 350.org is calling for **"permanent levies" on "exceptional" oil industry profits**, with the funds going to consumers and clean energy . That's unlikely to pass a Republican Congress. But it's a preview of the political fight that's coming.

### The Investment Question

If you own energy stocks, you've had a very good year. Exxon and Chevron both beat estimates, raised dividends, and maintained massive buyback programs. But the windfall is driven by a **war-driven supply shock**, not by sustainable business improvements.

Chevron's own vice chairman said margins will "eventually moderate" . The question for investors is **when**—and what happens to these stocks when they do.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

### How much did Exxon's refining earnings surge?

Exxon's refining division earned **$9.05 billion** in Q3, almost **five times higher** than a year earlier. The company's refining margin hit **$50.30 a barrel**, nearly triple the prior-year level .

### How much did Chevron's refining earnings surge?

Chevron's downstream earnings—which include refining—more than **quadrupled** to **$4.9 billion** from $1.1 billion a year earlier .

### What did Trump say about Big Oil's profits?

In August, Trump criticized Exxon and Chevron for making **"too much money based on a shortage"** . By late October, he was bragging about it, saying **"I don't give a damn. I'm going to say it. We're making a freaking fortune"** .

### Why are refining profits so high?

Because the Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war have knocked out roughly **10% of global refining capacity**. With fewer refineries operating, the margins on the fuel that *does* get produced have exploded .

### Is this sustainable?

**No.** Chevron's vice chairman said margins will "eventually moderate as refinery runs recover and export flows increase" . Wood Mackenzie's Raphael Portela said physical tightness will carry **"well into 2027"** but that a Hormuz settlement would hit margins quickly on sentiment .

### What does this mean for gas prices?

The refining windfall is a direct contributor to the high prices at the pump. Gas has averaged **$4.20 a gallon** under Trump, higher than under Biden . The White House says prices will drop once the war ends, but the war shows no signs of ending.

### Should I buy oil stocks?

I can't give personalized investment advice. What I can tell you is that **the windfall is real but cyclical**. Exxon and Chevron are generating enormous cash flow, paying dividends, and buying back stock. But the profits are driven by a war-driven supply shock that will eventually fade. The risk/reward depends on your time horizon and your view on the conflict.

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## The Path Forward: What to Watch

### The Midterm Elections (November 3)

The voters will render their verdict. If Republicans lose Congress, it will confirm that **gas prices matter more than any other economic indicator**. If they hold, it will be despite the pain at the pump.

### The War

Every headline about Iran, refineries, or the Strait of Hormuz moves refining margins. A ceasefire would hit profits quickly. An escalation would push them higher.

### The 2027 Outlook

Chevron says margins will moderate "into next year" . Wood Mackenzie says physical tightness lasts "well into 2027" . Watch the refining margins in Q4 and Q1 to see which forecast is right.

### The Political Response

Calls for windfall profit taxes are growing. Watch whether Democrats—if they win Congress—pursue legislation to levy the oil companies' "exceptional" profits. It's unlikely to become law, but it's a signal of where the political energy is heading.

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## Conclusion: The Shortage They Profited From

Here's what I want you to take away from Big Oil's quarter.

Trump was right in August. Exxon and Chevron *were* making too much money based on a shortage. He just didn't follow through on the thought—because the shortage was created by the war he started, and the profits were flowing to companies he considers allies.

Two months later, the numbers are even bigger. Exxon's refining earnings quintupled. Chevron's quadrupled. The five Western majors pulled in **$56 billion** in a single quarter while American families paid record prices at the pump .

The oil companies will tell you they're just running their refineries as hard as they can to meet demand. That's true. But the reason they *can* charge these margins is that the war removed their competitors from the market.

Trump called it out once. Then he stopped. The voters will decide on Tuesday whether they care.

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## Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a licensed financial advisor. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Data and figures cited are accurate as of the date of publication but may change. The author holds no position in any securities mentioned.

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