Trump Promised to Slash Energy Costs—Instead, Gas, Diesel, and Jet Fuel All Soared
**By [Ymoonlight editory team] | November 1, 2026 | 11-Minute Read**
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## The Short Version (For the Busy American)
Donald Trump made a very specific promise on the campaign trail in 2024. He said he would cut energy prices in half within twelve months of taking office. He told voters he would get gasoline below $2 a gallon .
Two days before the midterm elections, here is the reality: the national average for gasoline is **$4.20 a gallon**, nearly **40% higher** than this time last year. Diesel has surged roughly **70%** to **$6.32 a gallon**. And according to GasBuddy, fuel prices are forecast to be the **highest ever recorded on an election day** .
The culprit isn't a mystery. When Trump decided to attack Iran in late February, Tehran retaliated by striking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, choking off the flow of crude and refined products. That single decision, combined with Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries, has created the worst fuel supply shock since the 1970s .
**The punchline:** Trump promised to be the president who made energy cheap. Instead, he launched a war that made it expensive—and now he's telling voters that high prices are a "small price to pay" .
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## The Numbers That Prove the Broken Promise
Let me walk you through the data, because the gap between the promise and the reality is staggering.
### At the Pump
| Fuel Type | Current Price | Year-Over-Year Change |
|-----------|---------------|----------------------|
| **Gasoline** | **$4.20/gal** | **+40%** |
| **Diesel** | **$6.32/gal** | **+70%** |
*Source: GasBuddy, AAA, CNBC*
The average price Americans have paid for gasoline under Trump has now **overtaken the average under Joe Biden**—$3.472 versus $3.471, according to AAA data. That's a statistical rounding error, but politically it's a catastrophe. Trump built his entire 2024 campaign on blaming Biden for gas prices. Now he owns them .
### The Wholesale Data Is Even Worse
The Bureau of Labor Statistics data for September tells the story in brutal detail. Over the twelve months ending in September:
- **Gasoline** rose **64.3%**
- **Jet fuel** rose **104.4%**
- **Diesel fuel** rose **115.2%**
- **Home heating oil** rose **117.5%**
Energy prices overall rose **35.4%** at the wholesale level, driving the Producer Price Index up **6.3%**—the largest annual increase since December 2022 .
### The Refining Chokehold
Here's the part that explains why fuel is so expensive even as crude prices fluctuate. The war has taken roughly **10% of global refining capacity offline**. Middle Eastern refineries have been damaged. Russian refineries are under Ukrainian drone attack. And China has restricted exports .
That means the world is short of the ability to turn crude into the fuels people actually burn. Refining margins on the US Gulf Coast **more than tripled** to an all-time high of **$72 a barrel** in September .
The refiners are making a fortune. You're paying for it.
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## The Human Touch: What This Means for Real Americans
Let me put this in terms that actually connect to your life.
### The Farmer in Iowa
Diesel is the fuel that harvests the crops, hauls the grain, and keeps the tractors running. In Iowa—a state Trump won by double digits—the Senate race has become competitive because farmers are furious about diesel prices .
Senator Chuck Grassley lobbied the White House for a diesel export ban. Trump considered it, then decided against it because it might raise gasoline prices instead. He offered an **$8 billion relief program** for farmers hit by fuel costs. But relief payments don't change the price at the pump .
### The Trucker
The trucker hauling your groceries is paying **$6.32 a gallon** for diesel. That cost gets passed to the supermarket, which passes it to you. Every item on the shelf carries a fuel surcharge that didn't exist a year ago.
### The Airline Passenger
Jet fuel prices doubled. Airlines have hiked fares to cover the cost. Holiday travel is the most expensive it's been in years, and the Iran war is the reason .
### The Voter
Trump's approval rating on the economy has sunk to record lows. The cost of living is the top issue for voters. And the most visible cost of living—the number on the gas station sign—is higher than it's ever been on an election day.
Trump's response? At a rally this weekend, he celebrated how oil companies have added "hundreds of billions of dollars" to their fortunes. When told that voters might not appreciate that message while they're struggling at the pump, he said: **"I don't give a damn. I'm going to say it, we're making a freaking fortune"** .
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## Why the Fixes Aren't Working
Trump has tried almost everything to bring prices down. None of it has worked.
### The Russia Diesel Deal
Trump struck a deal with Vladimir Putin for Russia to export about **6 million barrels of diesel** into the global market. Energy analysts said the volumes are tiny compared to global demand and won't meaningfully move prices. Even Valero's COO called it "not a significant volume" .
### The Refinery Waivers
Trump issued fuel waivers to increase domestic supply. He allowed truckers to use off-road diesel on highways. He invoked wartime powers to boost refining. But refineries can't be built overnight, and the ones that exist are already running at full capacity .
### The Export Ban Threat
Trump briefly considered banning diesel exports—a move that would have been the ultimate reversal from his "energy dominance" agenda. He backed off after industry warned it would backfire, reducing refining output and raising prices further .
### The Hard Truth
The only real fix is ending the war. Trump has said he won't resume strikes on Iran before the midterms. But the conflict is stalemated, the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, and the Houthis keep attacking Saudi Arabia .
Gas prices will drop "drastically" once the conflict ends, the White House says. But the conflict isn't ending.
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## Frequently Asked Questions
### Did Trump really promise gas below $2 a gallon?
**Yes.** In a September 2024 speech to the New York Economic Club, Trump said: **"My plan will cut energy prices in half or more than that within 12 months of taking office."** He added: **"That means we're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon"** .
### How high are gas prices now?
The national average was **$4.20 a gallon** on Friday, nearly **40% higher** than the same period last year. Diesel was **$6.32 a gallon**, up about **70%** .
### Why did prices spike?
The **U.S.-Israel war with Iran**, which began in late February, disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by attacking tankers. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries compounded the disruption. About **10% of global refining capacity** has been taken offline .
### What has Trump done to try to fix it?
He struck a diesel deal with Russia (too small to matter), issued fuel waivers, invoked wartime powers to boost refining, and announced an **$8 billion farmer relief program**. None of it has brought prices down .
### Why are diesel prices so much higher than gas?
Diesel is the fuel that moves the economy—trucks, trains, farm equipment. The global refining shortage has hit diesel hardest because it's the product in highest demand and shortest supply. Diesel crack spreads (the gap between crude and diesel prices) are at record highs .
### What does this mean for the midterms?
Fuel prices are the most visible cost of living. They're posted on every street corner. Trump's approval on the economy is at a record low. Republican strongholds like **Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas**—states Trump won by double digits—are now considered toss-ups for Senate races . The broken promise on gas prices is a central reason why.
### Is there any relief coming?
The White House says prices will drop once the war ends. But the war shows no signs of ending. The IEA has warned the diesel shortage will last into **2027** . Americans should expect high fuel costs for the foreseeable future.
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## The Path Forward: What to Watch
### The Election (November 3)
The voters will render their verdict on Trump's broken promise. If Republicans lose Congress, it will confirm that **gas prices matter more than any other economic indicator**. If they hold, it will be despite the pain at the pump—not because of it.
### The War
Every headline about Iran, tankers, or the Strait of Hormuz moves fuel prices. Any de-escalation could bring relief. Any escalation makes it worse.
### The Refiners
Exxon, Chevron, and Valero are making record profits. Watch whether political pressure forces them to invest in new refining capacity—or whether they keep returning cash to shareholders while prices stay high .
### The 2027 Outlook
The IEA says the diesel shortage lasts into 2027. If that forecast holds, the pain at the pump isn't a campaign-season problem. It's the new normal.
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## Conclusion: The Promise and the Price
Here's what I want you to take away from Trump's energy record.
He promised to cut energy prices in half. He said gas would be below $2. He told voters that energy was the problem, and he was the solution.
Instead, he launched a war that disrupted the global fuel supply, and the prices at the pump are the highest they've ever been on an election day. The refiners are making a fortune. The oil companies are celebrating. And the man who promised to fight for the little guy says he **"doesn't give a damn"** .
The voters will decide on Tuesday whether that promise matters. But the price at the pump will be there either way.
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## Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or political commentary. The author is not a licensed financial advisor. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Data and figures cited are accurate as of the date of publication but may change.
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**Tags:** #Trump #EnergyPrices #GasPrices #DieselPrices #JetFuel #IranWar #Inflation #MidtermElections #CostOfLiving #StockMarketToday #FinancialNews #MarketAnalysis #Investing #RefiningCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #OilPrices #ConsumerPrices #BLS #PPI #GasBuddy #AAA #EIA #EnergyPolicy #BrokenPromise #AmericanFamilies #FuelCosts #Inflation2026 #Voters #PoliticalRisk #InvestmentStrategy
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