Consumers Are Spending on Physical Gifts Even as Travel Tops Wish Lists, Visa Survey Finds

 Consumers Are Spending on Physical Gifts Even as Travel Tops Wish Lists, Visa Survey Finds

**By [moonlight editory tesam] | November 5, 2026 | 11-Minute Read**

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## The Short Version (For the Busy American)

Americans are dreaming about palm trees and European cafes this holiday season. But when they open their wallets, they're buying sweaters and gadgets instead.

A new Visa survey of roughly 4,660 U.S. adults found that **more than half put travel and live events at the top of their holiday wish lists**. Yet only **15% are actually prioritizing spending on experiences** for others, while **27% plan to favor physical gifts** .

The gap isn't because Americans stopped wanting experiences. It's because **they can't afford them anymore**. Airfares are up more than **22% year-over-year**, driven by jet fuel costs from the Iran war. So consumers are doing what they always do when squeezed: they're adapting. They're buying gifts they can wrap, not trips they can't afford .

**The punchline:** Visa forecasts holiday retail sales will rise **4.5%** this year—the strongest since 2021. But **3.4 percentage points of that growth is just inflation**. Real spending is up only **1.1%** . Americans aren't spending more because they're confident. They're spending more because everything costs more.

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## What the Visa Survey Actually Found

Let me walk you through the numbers, because the details reveal a consumer who is resilient, strategic, and more than a little exhausted.

### The Wish List vs. The Shopping Cart

The disconnect is stark. **Over 50%** of respondents put travel and live events at the top of their wish lists. But when asked where they'll actually spend their holiday budget, the priorities flip: **27% prioritize physical gifts**, while only **15% prioritize experiences** .

Michael Brown, Visa's principal U.S. economist, explained the trade-off plainly: **"If I'm traveling more, I'm probably going to be gifting those physical goods less, so this is really the broader context"** .

Higher travel costs are the culprit. Airlines have hiked fares to cover fuel costs that surged due to the Middle East war. Even if fuel prices drop, executives have said fares are likely to stay high . So consumers are making a rational choice: skip the trip, buy the gift, stay closer to home.

### The Income Divide

The survey revealed a sharp split by income. **Only households earning above $200,000 increased their holiday airfare spending** compared to last year. Every other income group pulled back on travel .

Why the affluent exception? Brown pointed to the stock market. **"A lot of them own equities, and the equity market runup over the last several months has created a lot of positivity among that specific affluent demographic"** .

Meanwhile, **roughly one-third of consumers earning below $100,000 plan to switch to lower-cost brands or stores** for holiday gifts . The value-conscious shopper isn't a stereotype this year. It's a survival strategy.

### The Inflation Reality

Visa's headline forecast—**4.5% growth in holiday retail sales**—sounds impressive. It's the strongest since 2021. But strip out inflation, and the picture changes. Visa expects holiday-related goods prices to rise **approximately 3.4%**. That leaves real, inflation-adjusted spending growth at just **1.1%**, down from 1.3% last year .

Brown was candid about this: **"Consumers are internalizing higher prices of things, and I think that's why they're reporting higher anticipated spend this year"** .

In other words: the spending looks healthy on paper. The experience doesn't feel healthy at the register.

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## The Human Touch: What This Means for Real Families

Let me put this in terms that actually connect to your holiday budget.

### The Gift Budget

Visa found consumers plan to spend an average of **$777 on holiday gifts**, up **5.6%** from $736 in 2025 . That's a meaningful increase—but it's also a reflection of higher prices, not necessarily more generous giving.

For a family that's been squeezed by gas above **$4 a gallon**, groceries that won't stop climbing, and rent that eats a bigger share of every paycheck, $777 is a real commitment. It's a choice to prioritize the holiday over other spending. It's not a sign of abundance.

### The Travel Trade-Off

If you were hoping to fly home for the holidays, you're not alone—but you're also facing the same math as everyone else. Airfares are up **22%**. Fuel costs are the reason. And the airlines have made clear they're not absorbing the difference .

The result is that more families will celebrate closer to home. They'll buy gifts instead of plane tickets. They'll drive instead of fly. And retailers—the ones selling physical goods—will benefit from that shift.

### The Retailer's Holiday

For American retailers, the Visa survey is genuinely good news. Dollars that might have gone toward travel will flow toward merchandise instead. Visa's holiday sales measure excludes travel and dining, so the shift from experiences to gifts **works in retailers' favor** .

But retailers shouldn't mistake resilience for prosperity. Consumers are still **value-conscious**. They're shopping sales, comparing prices, using coupons. The National Retail Federation found **56% of holiday shoppers say the economy will affect their spending plans**, with 43% planning to shop for sales more often and 31% comparison shopping online .

Retailers who can offer genuine value—not just discounts, but quality at a fair price—will win. The ones who rely on brand loyalty or convenient location will struggle.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

### What did the Visa survey actually find?

Visa surveyed roughly **4,660 U.S. adults** in October 2026. The key findings: **more than half** put travel and live events at the top of their wish lists, but only **15%** are prioritizing spending on experiences, while **27%** plan to buy physical gifts. Consumers plan to spend an average of **$777 on gifts**, up 5.6% from 2025 .

### Why are people buying gifts instead of experiences?

**Because travel got too expensive.** Airfares are up more than **22% year-over-year** due to higher jet fuel costs from the Iran war. Even if fuel prices drop, airlines have said fares are likely to stay high. So consumers are choosing gifts over trips—not because they stopped wanting experiences, but because they can't afford them .

### Is holiday spending actually growing, or is it just inflation?

**Mostly inflation.** Visa forecasts **4.5% growth** in holiday retail sales, but prices for holiday goods are expected to rise **3.4%**. That leaves real spending growth at just **1.1%**, down from 1.3% last year . The headline number looks healthy. The underlying reality is more modest.

### How does income affect holiday spending plans?

**Sharply.** Only households earning **above $200,000** increased their holiday airfare spending. Every other income group pulled back on travel. Meanwhile, **one-third of consumers earning below $100,000** plan to switch to lower-cost brands or stores for gifts . Higher-income households are benefiting from stock market gains. Lower-income households are cutting back.

### What are retailers expecting this holiday season?

The National Retail Federation forecasts **4.2% growth** in holiday retail sales, reaching **$1.013 trillion**. That's an acceleration from 2025's 3.1% growth. But the NRF notes that **higher food and gasoline prices are expected to place greater pressure on moderate- and lower-income consumers**, while higher-income households do more of the heavy lifting .

### Should I expect discounts this holiday season?

**Yes, but they'll be targeted.** Consumers are value-conscious and planning to shop sales. The NRF found **64% of consumers say they're likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend sales** to do most of their holiday shopping . Retailers know this, and they'll compete on promotions. But don't expect deep, sitewide discounts—retailers are protecting margins too.

### What does this mean for the broader economy?

**Consumer spending is still the bright spot.** Almost **80% of total GDP growth** over the last four quarters has been driven by consumer spending, according to the NRF . The Visa survey confirms that Americans are still spending. But they're spending more carefully, prioritizing value, and making trade-offs. The resilience is real. The confidence isn't.

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## The Path Forward: What to Watch

### The Holiday Sales Numbers

The real test comes in November and December. Visa forecasts **4.5% growth**. The NRF forecasts **4.2%**. If the actual numbers come in at or above those levels, it confirms that consumers are still willing to spend despite the pressure. If they come in lower, it signals that the squeeze is finally forcing a pullback.

### The Travel Sector

Airlines are facing a holiday season where **only the highest-income households are still flying**. Watch for fare cuts, route reductions, or capacity adjustments as airlines respond to weaker demand from budget-conscious travelers.

### The Value Retailers

Walmart, Target, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree are positioned to benefit from the shift toward value. Watch their holiday quarter results for signs that lower-income consumers are trading down—and that the retailers are capturing that spending.

### The Fed's Next Move

The holiday spending data feeds into the Fed's inflation outlook. If consumers keep spending despite higher prices, the Fed has less reason to cut rates. If spending slows, the case for a pause strengthens. The December meeting looms.

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## Conclusion: The Aspiration Gap

Here's what I want you to take away from the Visa survey.

Americans haven't stopped dreaming. They still want the trip to Europe, the concert tickets, the long weekend at the beach. The wish list is full of experiences.

But the shopping cart is full of gifts. Because the trip costs too much. Because the airfare is up 22%. Because the war that's been driving up fuel prices for months is still raging, and the airlines are passing the bill to you.

Visa's forecast of **4.5% holiday sales growth** sounds like a healthy consumer. But **3.4 points of that is inflation**. The real growth is **1.1%**. The consumer is spending more because everything costs more—not because they're thriving.

The holiday season will be fine for retailers. Americans will buy gifts. They'll gather with family. They'll make the best of it.

But the gap between what they want and what they can afford is the story of this economy. The aspiration is there. The money isn't quite enough.

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## Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a licensed financial advisor. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Data and figures cited are accurate as of the date of publication but may change. The author holds no position in any securities mentioned.

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