Bank of America Resets Nvidia Price Target After Earnings: Now Sees $300 on 'Unshakeable' AI Demand

 Bank of America Resets Nvidia Price Target After Earnings: Now Sees $300 on 'Unshakeable' AI Demand

**Published: February 27, 2026**

You know that feeling when a company reports the best quarter in its history, raises guidance, and the stock still goes down?

That's Nvidia right now.

The chip giant delivered another monster quarter on Wednesday—$68.1 billion in revenue, up 73% year-over-year, with guidance for next quarter around $78 billion that smashed expectations . And yet, the stock dropped more than 5% on Thursday, wiping out its year-to-date gains .

So what gives? Is the AI trade finally running out of steam?

Not according to Bank of America.

In a research note released Thursday, BofA analyst Vivek Arya and his team reset their price target on Nvidia to **$300, up from $275**, while reiterating a Buy rating . That's about 53% upside from where the stock was trading before the earnings report .

Let me walk you through why Bank of America is so bullish, what's really driving the stock's post-earnings dip, and whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.

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## The Short Version

**What Nvidia reported:** Q4 revenue of $68.13 billion, up 73% year-over-year, beating estimates of $65.9 billion. EPS of $1.62 beat estimates of $1.54. Q1 guidance of $78 billion topped expectations of $72.9 billion .

**What the stock did:** Dropped more than 5% on Thursday, extending a pattern where Nvidia shares fall after earnings regardless of how good the numbers are .

**What Bank of America did:** Raised its price target to $300 from $275, based on 28x calendar year 2027 P/E estimates . The firm also raised its EPS forecasts for fiscal years 2027/2028/2029 by 5%/10%/13% .

**Why the stock fell:** Investor concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, pressure on hyperscaler cash flows, and tougher year-over-year comparisons for cloud capex in 2027 .

**The bottom line:** Bank of America sees the selloff as "short-term noise" and believes Nvidia's long-term AI opportunity is still in the early innings .

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## The Numbers: Nvidia's Quarter by the Numbers

Let's start with the raw data, because it's genuinely staggering.

**Table 1: Nvidia Q4 Earnings vs. Expectations**

| **Metric** | **Actual** | **Expected** | **Beat** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| Revenue | $68.13 billion | $65.9 billion | +3.4% |

| EPS | $1.62 | $1.54 | +5.2% |

| Data Center Revenue | $62.3 billion | N/A | Massive |

| Gross Margin | 74.9% | N/A | Strong |

*Sources: *

**Guidance for next quarter:**

- Revenue: ~$78 billion (plus or minus 2%)

- Wall Street was looking for: ~$72.9 billion

- Beat: About 7% above expectations 

**The Blackwell story:** Management revealed $11 billion in Blackwell revenue for Q4, calling it "the fastest product ramp in our company's history" . This despite CEO Jensen Huang acknowledging a "hiccup" that cost them "a couple of months" in production .

**The supply chain commitment:** Supply chain obligations rose to $95.2 billion from $50.3 billion in the prior quarter . That's Nvidia's way of saying: demand isn't slowing down, and we're locking in capacity years in advance .

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## Bank of America's New Price Target: $300

Here's what Bank of America actually said in their research note.

### The New Numbers

Analyst Vivek Arya and his team raised their fiscal year 2027/2028/2029 non-GAAP EPS estimates by **5%/10%/13%** to $8.11, $10.72, and $13.18, respectively . They also noted that these estimates now include stock compensation expenses and embed a higher tax rate .

The new $300 price target is based on a **28x multiple of their calendar year 2027 P/E estimate excluding cash** . That's within Nvidia's historical forward-year P/E range of 25 to 56 .

**The rationale:** Arya believes this multiple is "justified by NVDA's leading share in fast-growing AI compute/networking markets" .

### What BofA Liked

The team said Nvidia "more than delivered, with topline growth accelerating to 77% YoY" in Q1 guidance . They highlighted:

- Strong demand visibility extending through 2027

- The Blackwell ramp exceeding expectations

- Nvidia's dominant position in AI infrastructure

- Expanding supply chain commitments

### The Risks BofA Acknowledged

To be fair, the team also noted several risk factors :

**Table 2: BofA's Identified Risks for Nvidia**

| **Risk Category** | **Details** |

| :--- | :--- |

| Market Rotation | A continued market rotation out of AI semiconductors could work against Nvidia |

| Cloud Capex Slowdown | Expected slower year-over-year growth for cloud capex in 2027 |

| Gaming Weakness | Potential weakness in consumer-driven gaming market |

| Competition | Competition from major public firms (AMD, custom silicon) |

| China Restrictions | Larger-than-expected impact from restrictions on compute shipments to China |

| Sales Lumpiness | Lumpy and unpredictable sales in new enterprise, data center, and autos markets |

| Capital Returns | Potential for decelerating capital returns |

| Regulatory Scrutiny | Enhanced government scrutiny of Nvidia's dominant market position |

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## Why the Stock Fell Despite Great Numbers

This is the part that's confusing a lot of investors. Let's break down what's really going on.

### The AI Sentiment Problem

Jensen Huang actually explained this phenomenon after last quarter's earnings. "If we delivered a bad quarter, it is evidence there's an AI bubble. If we delivered a great quarter, we are fueling the AI bubble," he said .

In other words: Nvidia is damned if they do, damned if they don't. The stock is so closely associated with the AI trade that any news—good or bad—gets interpreted through the lens of "is this a bubble?"

**TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter** put it this way: "Skepticism continues to pervade large-cap AI stocks." He said Nvidia stock "needs a catalyst to break the AI sentiment holding pattern" .

### The Funding Question

The bigger issue, according to Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore, is that investors are shifting from "how fast is demand growing?" to "who's funding it?" .

Much of the AI buildout is being paid for by hyperscalers—Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta. And Morgan Stanley flagged pressure on those firms' cash flow, which could make today's cloud capital spending harder to sustain .

**Bank of America** also warned that after more than 50% annual cloud capex growth from 2024 to 2026, the comparisons could get tougher in 2027 .

### The China Factor

Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress was blunt on the call: "We are not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in our outlook" .

While small amounts of H200 products for China-based customers have been approved, the company has yet to generate any revenue from those shipments .

That's a meaningful headwind, but analysts like Wedbush called Nvidia's performance "only more impressive" given the absence of China revenue .

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## What Other Analysts Are Saying

Bank of America isn't alone in raising targets. Here's what the Street is saying post-earnings.

**Table 3: Analyst Actions Post-Nvidia Earnings**

| **Firm** | **Analyst** | **Rating** | **Target** | **Key Quote** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| Bank of America | Vivek Arya | Buy | $300 (from $275) | "More than delivered, with topline growth accelerating" |

| Wedbush | Dan Ives | Outperform | $300 (from $230) | "Everything they wanted in a present with a red bow" |

| Morgan Stanley | Joseph Moore | Overweight | $260 (from $250) | "Underlying compute demand is clear" |

| JPMorgan | Harlan Sur | Overweight | $265 (from $250) | "Looks like a coiled spring" |

| TD Cowen | Joshua Buchalter | Top Pick | $235 | "Skepticism continues to pervade large-cap AI stocks" |

| Jefferies | N/A | Constructive | N/A | "Significant beat & raise" |

*Sources: *

**Wedbush's Dan Ives** was characteristically colorful: "Watching Nvidia today is like watching Michael Jordan in his first few years for the Chicago Bulls" . He also noted that management may still be leaving room for upside when results are reported.

**Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore** said he was "surprised by the muted response" given the strong quarter and outlook, but maintained that "the underlying compute demand is clear" .

**JPMorgan's Harlan Sur** described Nvidia stock as "a coiled spring that has been tightened even further post this set of results" .

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## The Investor Concerns: What Management Addressed

The earnings call revealed several investor concerns that management tackled head-on.

### 1. The Blackwell Ramp

Investors were worried about production complexities and supply chain bottlenecks. Huang acknowledged the "hiccup" that cost them "a couple of months" but emphasized their successful recovery. The disclosure of $11 billion in Blackwell revenue for Q4 served as tangible evidence of their operational resilience .

### 2. Gross Margin Pressure

Margins declined to the "low 70s" during the Blackwell ramp, triggering questions about trajectory. CFO Colette Kress confirmed margins would return to the "mid-70s late this fiscal year," framing the compression as a temporary investment in customer relationships rather than a structural problem .

### 3. Long-Term Demand Sustainability

Huang addressed this with a multilayered framework: near-term signals (purchase orders), mid-term signals (infrastructure investments), and long-term signals (the fundamental shift to AI-based software). He emphasized that reasoning models currently require "100x more compute" than earlier models .

### 4. Competition from Custom ASICs

Huang defended Nvidia's value proposition across five dimensions: architectural flexibility, workflow coverage, deployment breadth, performance cadence, and software ecosystem complexity. His observation that "the software stack is incredibly hard" highlighted barriers to replication that extend beyond silicon .

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## The Health Care Angle: AI Is Delivering ROI

One underappreciated story from Nvidia's earnings week was the release of its second annual "State of AI in Healthcare and Life Sciences" survey .

**Table 4: Nvidia's Health Care AI Survey Highlights**

| **Finding** | **Percentage** |

| :--- | :--- |

| Organizations actively using AI | 70% (up from 63% in 2024) |

| Open source important to AI strategy | 82% |

| Executives saying AI helps increase revenue | 85% |

| Executives saying AI helps reduce costs | 80% |

| Medical tech using AI for imaging | 61% |

| Pharma/biotech using AI for drug discovery | 57% |

| Expecting AI budgets to increase | 85% |

*Source: *

This matters because it shows AI is moving beyond hype into real-world applications with measurable returns. As Annabelle Painter, clinical AI strategy lead at Visiba U.K., put it: "The organizations seeing impact are those that embed AI into existing workflows instead of layering AI on top as a separate tool" .

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## The Sovereign AI Opportunity

Beyond the health care survey, Bank of America also highlighted a massive emerging opportunity: **sovereign AI** .

According to BofA, the sovereign AI market represents a **$50 billion annual opportunity**, accounting for 10%-15% of the global $450 billion to $500 billion AI infrastructure market .

**What this means:** Countries around the world are building their own AI infrastructure to train models on local languages and cultures, rather than relying entirely on U.S. hyperscalers. Nvidia has already secured deals in the Middle East, including a multibillion-dollar agreement with Saudi Arabia's Humain to supply over 18,000 Blackwell chips .

These sovereign AI initiatives complement commercial cloud investments and provide geographic diversification that could offset China restrictions .

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## What This Means for You

### If You Own Nvidia Stock

Don't panic. The post-earnings drop isn't about fundamentals—it's about sentiment. Nvidia delivered a historic quarter and raised guidance. The China issue is real but known. The Blackwell ramp is ahead of schedule. And analysts are raising targets, not cutting them.

**The Jefferies take:** The firm said Nvidia "was already cheap and will look remarkably cheaper," pointing to an upside earnings scenario that could push fiscal 2027 EPS above $14 .

### If You're Thinking About Buying

This might be your moment. Nvidia's stock has been range-bound for months, and the post-earnings dip could be a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

But be realistic. Nvidia is a $4.7 trillion company. The days of 100% annual returns are probably over. The question is whether you believe in the multi-year AI buildout.

**Morgan Stanley's view:** "The bigger investor question is durability, with hyperscale cash flows under pressure, but the underlying compute demand is clear" .

### If You're Just Watching

This is a fascinating moment in the AI story. For the first time, investors are questioning not whether demand exists, but who's going to pay for it. That's a natural evolution of any technology cycle.

The good news? Nvidia's management addressed these concerns directly on the call, and the long-term thesis remains intact.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

**Q: What did Bank of America do with its Nvidia price target?**

A: Bank of America raised its price target to $300 from $275, while reiterating a Buy rating. The new target is based on 28x calendar year 2027 P/E estimates .

**Q: How did Nvidia's earnings look?**

A: Revenue of $68.13 billion beat estimates of $65.9 billion, up 73% year-over-year. EPS of $1.62 beat estimates of $1.54. Q1 guidance of $78 billion topped expectations of $72.9 billion .

**Q: Why did the stock fall after such good earnings?**

A: Investor concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, pressure on hyperscaler cash flows, and tougher year-over-year comparisons for cloud capex in 2027 . Bank of America called it "short-term noise" .

**Q: What's the Blackwell update?**

A: Nvidia reported $11 billion in Blackwell revenue for Q4, calling it "the fastest product ramp in our company's history" despite earlier production hiccups .

**Q: What about China?**

A: Nvidia is assuming no Data Center compute revenue from China in its outlook. Small amounts of H200 products have been approved, but no revenue has been generated yet .

**Q: What are analysts saying now?**

A: Bullish. Bank of America ($300), Wedbush ($300), JPMorgan ($265), and Morgan Stanley ($260) all raised targets. The consensus remains Strong Buy .

**Q: What's the sovereign AI opportunity?**

A: Bank of America estimates the sovereign AI market represents a $50 billion annual opportunity, accounting for 10%-15% of global AI infrastructure spend .

**Q: Is AI delivering real returns?**

A: Nvidia's health care survey found 85% of executives say AI is helping increase revenue, and 80% say it's helping reduce costs .

**Q: Should I buy Nvidia now?**

A: I can't give investment advice. But Bank of America sees 53% upside from pre-earnings levels, and the long-term AI thesis remains intact. The post-earnings dip could be a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

**Q: What's the next catalyst?**

A: The upcoming GTC conference in March could provide another catalyst, where Nvidia will outline its technology road map .

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## The Bottom Line

Here's what I keep coming back to.

Nvidia just reported one of the most anticipated earnings in market history. They delivered—by any objective measure, they absolutely crushed it. Revenue up 73%. Guidance above expectations. Blackwell ramping faster than any product in company history.

And the stock fell 5%.

That tells you something about where we are in this cycle. The easy money has been made. The AI trade is no longer a secret. Investors are asking harder questions: who's funding this? How long can it last? What happens when cloud capex growth slows?

**Bank of America's answer** is that these concerns are "short-term noise." They raised their price target to $300, raised their EPS estimates, and reiterated their Buy rating. They see Nvidia's position in AI as "unshakeable."

**Morgan Stanley** is more measured but still bullish, noting that "the underlying compute demand is clear" even as they acknowledge pressure on hyperscaler cash flows.

**Wedbush's Dan Ives** put it in perspective: "Watching Nvidia today is like watching Michael Jordan in his first few years for the Chicago Bulls."

The stock may be volatile. Sentiment may shift. But the fundamental story—that AI is the biggest technology shift in a generation, and Nvidia is the company supplying the picks and shovels—remains intact.

For long-term investors, days like this are either scary or exciting. It depends on whether you're looking at the price or the business.

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*Got thoughts on Nvidia's earnings? Buying the dip or staying away? Drop a comment and let me know.*