stock Rally to Ease as Nvidia's Results Tip the Scales: Your Market Wrap

 Stock Rally to Ease as Nvidia's Results Tip the Scales: Your Market Wrap

**Published: February 26, 2026**

You know that feeling when you're waiting for test results, and the minutes feel like hours?

That's been the stock market for the past 24 hours.

Nvidia—the most important company in the AI boom, the one with a $4.7 trillion market cap, the one that's been carrying the entire tech sector on its back—finally reported its earnings. And the results were, by any objective measure, absolutely stunning.

Revenue up 73%. Guidance that blew past expectations. A quarter that, on paper, should have sent the stock to the moon.

But here's the thing about markets: they don't care about what happened. They care about what's next. And Nvidia's cautious words about China and competition have investors wondering whether the AI rocket ship is finally running out of fuel .

Let me walk you through everything that happened, what it means for your portfolio, and where we go from here.

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## The Short Version

**What happened:** Nvidia reported blowout Q4 earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Revenue hit $68.13 billion, beating estimates. Guidance for next quarter was also above expectations at around $78 billion .

**The stock reaction:** Nvidia initially jumped about 4% in after-hours trading, then gave most of it back. Futures on the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all slipped slightly as investors digested the news .

**The reason for caution:** Nvidia's CFO said they're assuming "no Data Center compute revenue from China" in their outlook. And she warned that Chinese competitors are "making progress" and could "disrupt the world order in AI" .

**The broader market:** Despite the post-earnings jitters, Wednesday's regular session was strong. The Dow rose 307 points (0.6%), the S&P gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.3% .

**What analysts are saying:** Jefferies maintained a Buy rating with a $275 target. CLSA reiterated "高度确信跑赢大市" (highly confident outperform) with a $300 target .

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## The Numbers: Nvidia's Quarter by the Numbers

Let's start with the raw data, because it's genuinely impressive.

**Table 1: Nvidia Q4 Earnings vs. Expectations**

| **Metric** | **Actual** | **Expected** | **Beat** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| Revenue | $68.13 billion | $65.9 billion | +3.4% |

| EPS | ~$1.53 | ~$1.50 | +2% |

| Data Center Revenue | Up 75% YoY | N/A | Massive |

| Shareholder Returns | $41.1 billion | N/A | N/A |

*Sources: *

**Guidance for next quarter:**

- Expected revenue: ~$78 billion (plus or minus 2%)

- Wall Street was looking for: ~$72.8 billion

- Beat: About 7% above expectations 

By any historical standard, these numbers are absurd. Revenue up 73% year-over-year. Guidance that suggests growth is actually accelerating. A company that's now returning more than $40 billion to shareholders in buybacks and dividends .

**The China catch:** The one line that gave investors pause came from CFO Colette Kress. She said on the conference call: "We are not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in our outlook" .

Translation: Nvidia expects to sell exactly zero chips to China going forward. That's a massive chunk of the market, and it's completely gone.

She also warned that Chinese competitors are "making progress," bolstered by recent IPOs, and "have the potential to disrupt the world order in AI" .

**Jim Cramer's take:** The CNBC host posted on X: "Nvidia trading down from after-hours high on questions about China. I think that's a mistake" .

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## The Stock Reaction: What the Futures Are Saying

After the earnings, the market did its usual dance.

**Table 2: Futures Movement Post-Nvidia Earnings**

| **Index** | **Change** |

| :--- | :--- |

| S&P 500 Futures | -0.1% to -0.2% |

| Nasdaq 100 Futures | -0.3% to -0.45% |

| Dow Futures | -0.1% to -0.2% |

*Sources: *

It's not a crash. It's not even a real selloff. It's a collective "hmm, let's think about this" from investors who've gotten used to Nvidia blowing expectations out of the water by 10-15%, not just beating by a few percent.

**Gene Muster**, Managing Partner at Deepwater Management, pointed to another comment from Kress that might have spooked investors. She said the company has enough inventory to meet demand for "at least the full year."

Muster's take: "When you talk about being in supply-demand equilibrium, it does remove this hopeful, wishful dynamic... there is a little bit of a psychological headwind to being in equilibrium" .

In other words: scarcity is good for stock prices. Abundance is not. If Nvidia finally has enough chips to meet demand, the narrative shifts from "they can't make enough" to "how much longer will this last?"

---

## What Happened in the Regular Session

Before all this after-hours drama, Wednesday was actually a really good day for stocks.

**Table 3: Wednesday's Market Close**

| **Index** | **Change** | **Close** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| Dow Jones | +307 points (+0.6%) | ~49,500 |

| S&P 500 | +0.8% | ~6,935 |

| Nasdaq | +1.3% | ~23,120 |

*Sources: *

**The leaders:** Tech, financials, and communication services led the way. Real estate and consumer staples lagged .

**The vibe:** It had a clear "risk-on" feel. Investors were betting that Nvidia's earnings would be strong enough to calm the recent jitters about AI valuations .

**The software bounce:** Salesforce was up 3.4% during the regular session, bouncing back from a brutal start to the year (down 30% year-to-date) .

**The winners:** Albemarle (+8.3%), Western Digital (+6.8%), Netflix (+4.8%) .

**The losers:** MercadoLibre (-7.95%), Workday (-4.25%), Kraft Heinz (-2.3%) .

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## The Other Big Earnings: Salesforce and Software Stocks

Nvidia wasn't the only game in town Wednesday night.

**Salesforce (CRM)** reported earnings that beat expectations for the quarter but guided lower for fiscal 2027. The stock dropped about 5% in after-hours trading .

The company's forecast for annual revenue came in at $45.8 billion to $46.2 billion, with the midpoint slightly below Wall Street's $46.1 billion estimate .

**Why it matters:** Salesforce is a bellwether for enterprise software. If they're seeing softness, it suggests that businesses are still cautious about spending, and that AI disruption fears might be real.

**The "SaaSpocalypse" hangover:** Software stocks have been hammered lately by concerns that AI agents will replace the need for human workers—and therefore reduce the need for software licenses. Wednesday's bounce in the regular session suggested some of that fear might be overdone, but Salesforce's after-hours drop brought it right back .

**Other movers:**

- **Trade Desk (TTD):** Down 16% after-hours on weak guidance 

- **C3.ai (AI):** Down 23% after-hours on weak forecast 

- **IonQ (IONQ):** Up 7% after-hours on strong guidance 

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## The Broader Market Picture: What Else Is Moving

### The "AI Scare Trade" Might Be Easing

Remember that Citrini Research report from earlier this week? The one that imagined a 2028 scenario where AI has wrecked the economy? It spooked markets, but the reaction might have been overdone.

**Wolfe Research** conducted a poll suggesting most investors think the AI "wrecking ball" concerns are "overblown" .

**The Kobeissi Letter** noted something interesting: "Market breadth is experiencing a historic improvement," with 66% of S&P 500 constituents now outperforming the index year-to-date. That's the strongest such reading since records began in 1986 .

And here's the kicker: "Nvidia is the only stock from the Magnificent 7 gaining more than the benchmark so far this year" .

Translation: The rally is broadening out. It's not just about AI chips anymore.

### Geopolitics: Iran and Tariffs

**Iran talks:** The U.S. and Iran are scheduled for another round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday. The U.S. just imposed sanctions on more than 30 entities supporting Iranian oil and weapons sales, cranking up the pressure .

**Tariffs:** President Trump moved ahead with a 10% duty on global imports Tuesday and signaled a directive to raise it to 15% "where appropriate" . The Supreme Court struck down his earlier tariff push, but he's finding new legal avenues.

### The Fed: Rates Staying Higher for Longer

**Rate cut odds:** The market now sees only a 50% chance of a rate cut by June—the lowest level this year. The probability of three cuts in 2026 has "almost disappeared" .

**Fed speak:** Boston Fed President Susan Collins said recent data shows labor market improvement but persistent inflation risks, so rates will likely stay unchanged "for a period of time" .

Fed Governor Lisa Cook offered a fascinating warning: the Fed's policy might not be able to address unemployment caused by AI disruption. But she also noted that if AI boosts productivity, growth could stay strong .

### Gold and Oil

**Gold:** Prices are hovering around $5,217 an ounce, up about 20% this year. JPMorgan raised its long-term forecast to $4,500 and maintained a 2026 year-end target of $6,300, citing central bank demand and geopolitical risks .

**Oil:** WTI crude is around $65.42, Brent at $70.85—both near July 2025 highs .

---

## What Asia Is Doing

Asian markets opened higher Thursday, tracking Wall Street's gains .

**Table 4: Asia Pacific Morning Moves**

| **Index** | **Change** |

| :--- | :--- |

| MSCI Asia Pacific | +0.8% |

| Japan Nikkei 225 | +1.1% |

| Australia S&P/ASX 200 | +0.4% |

| Hong Kong Hang Seng | Futures up ~0.7% |

*Sources: *

**The chip story:** Asia has been a major beneficiary of the AI boom. Companies like Samsung and TSMC are viewed as the "picks and shovels" of the AI supply chain, and investors are piling in .

**The caution:** The tepid response to Nvidia's earnings could cap gains. If the AI trade is cooling, Asia's chipmakers might feel the chill .

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## What the Analysts Are Saying

Despite the after-hours dip, Wall Street remains bullish on Nvidia.

**Table 5: Analyst Ratings and Targets**

| **Firm** | **Analyst** | **Rating** | **Target** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| Jefferies | Blayne Curtis | Buy | $275 |

| CLSA/里昂 | N/A | 高度确信跑赢大市 | $300 |

| Consensus (63 analysts) | N/A | Buy | $254.54 |

*Sources: *

**CLSA's take:** Based on 32x 2028 EPS estimates, the $300 target implies significant upside. They note that Nvidia's valuation (26x forward earnings) doesn't reflect its "core role in the AI revolution." With at least 80% share of the AI accelerator market, pricing power, and growing demand from knowledge work, entertainment, robotics, and autonomous vehicles, the runway is long .

**Jefferies:** Maintained Buy with $275 target .

**The big picture:** Analysts see Nvidia's massive beat and raise as confirmation that the AI buildout is still in its early innings. The hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) are spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure, and most of that money flows to Nvidia.

---

## What This Means for You

### If You Own Nvidia Stock

Don't panic. The after-hours dip is tiny relative to the move we've seen over the past two years. Nvidia beat expectations, raised guidance, and continues to dominate the most important technology market on earth.

The China concerns are real, but they're also priced in. The market knew about export restrictions. The question was always how much it would hurt. Now we know: Nvidia is assuming zero revenue from China going forward. That's baked into guidance.

### If You're Thinking About Buying

This might be your moment. Nvidia's stock has been range-bound for months. If you believe the AI buildout is still in early innings—and all the evidence says it is—then a pullback on China news could be a buying opportunity.

But be realistic. Nvidia is a $4.7 trillion company. It's not going to 10x from here. The days of 100% annual returns are probably over.

### If You're in Tech Stocks Generally

Nvidia's results are good for the whole sector. They confirm that the spending is real, that the demand is there, and that the AI revolution isn't slowing down.

But pay attention to the software names. Salesforce's weak guidance suggests that not every tech company is benefiting equally. The "SaaSpocalypse" fears might be overblown, but they're not completely unfounded.

### If You're Just Trying to Protect Your 401(k)

Diversification is your friend. The rally is broadening out. Energy, financials, and industrials are starting to participate. If you're heavily concentrated in tech, it might be time to rebalance.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

**Q: Did Nvidia beat earnings expectations?**

A: Yes. Revenue of $68.13 billion topped estimates of $65.9 billion, and guidance of ~$78 billion beat expectations of $72.8 billion .

**Q: Why did the stock drop after good earnings?**

A: Two main reasons. First, Nvidia's CFO said they're assuming zero China data center revenue going forward, which spooked investors. Second, the company said it has enough inventory to meet demand for the full year, which removes the "scarcity" narrative that's been boosting the stock .

**Q: What's happening with China and Nvidia?**

A: Export restrictions mean Nvidia can't sell its most advanced chips to China. CFO Colette Kress said the company is "not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China" in its outlook. She also warned that Chinese competitors are "making progress" and could disrupt the global AI market .

**Q: How did the broader market react?**

A: Futures slipped slightly, with Nasdaq futures down about 0.3-0.45% and S&P futures down 0.1-0.2%. But the regular session on Wednesday was strong, with all three major indices up .

**Q: What about Salesforce?**

A: Salesforce beat Q4 expectations but guided lower for fiscal 2027, causing the stock to drop about 5% after-hours. It's a reminder that not all tech companies are benefiting equally from the AI boom .

**Q: Are interest rates going down anytime soon?**

A: Probably not. The market now sees only a 50% chance of a rate cut by June, and the probability of three cuts this year has "almost disappeared" .

**Q: What's the deal with gold?**

A: Gold is hovering around $5,217 an ounce, up about 20% this year. JPMorgan raised its long-term forecast to $4,500 and sees a 2026 year-end target of $6,300, driven by central bank demand and geopolitical risks .

**Q: How are Asian markets doing?**

A: Asian markets opened higher Thursday, with Japan's Nikkei up 1.1% and the MSCI Asia Pacific index up 0.8%. But the tepid response to Nvidia's earnings could cap gains .

**Q: Should I buy Nvidia now?**

A: I can't give investment advice, but here's what the analysts are saying: Jefferies has a Buy with a $275 target, CLSA has a "highly confident outperform" with a $300 target, and the consensus of 63 analysts is Buy with a $254.54 target .

**Q: What should I watch next?**

A: Keep an eye on: 1) The Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, 2) Trump's tariff announcements, 3) Fed comments on rates, and 4) How software stocks respond to Salesforce's guidance.

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## The Bottom Line

Here's what I keep coming back to.

Nvidia just reported one of the most anticipated earnings in market history. They delivered—by any objective measure, they absolutely crushed it.

And yet the stock is flat.

That tells you something about where we are in this cycle. The easy money has been made. The AI trade is no longer a secret. Nvidia is now a $4.7 trillion company that has to justify its valuation every single quarter.

**The good news:** The underlying fundamentals are still rock solid. The hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure. Demand isn't slowing. And Nvidia is still the dominant player.

**The caution:** Competition is coming. China is building its own chips. AMD is gaining ground. And the market is starting to pay attention to these risks in a way it didn't a year ago.

For the broader market, Nvidia's results are a relief. They confirm that the AI buildout is real and sustainable. But they also remind us that even the best companies face headwinds.

The rally might ease. The volatility might continue. But the long-term story? That's still intact.

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*Got thoughts on Nvidia's earnings? Worried about China? Bullish on AI? Drop a comment and let me know.*