Home Depot Just Dropped Its 2025 Numbers: A Tiny Dividend Hike and a Cautious Look Ahead

 

# Home Depot Just Dropped Its 2025 Numbers: A Tiny Dividend Hike and a Cautious Look Ahead

**Published: February 24, 2026**

You know that feeling when you walk into Home Depot on a Saturday morning, and the place is buzzing? Carts everywhere, folks loading up lumber, that orange apron walking you to the exact aisle you need?

The numbers they just released tell a slightly different story. A quieter one.

Home Depot reported their fourth quarter and full year 2025 results today . Sales were down a bit. Profits were down a bit. But here's the thing—they still beat what Wall Street expected . And they're giving shareholders a tiny little raise on that dividend.

Let me walk you through what this all means in plain English.

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## The Short Version

**What happened:** Home Depot's Q4 sales dropped to $38.2 billion, down 3.8% from last year . But that's a little misleading—last year's quarter had an extra week, which added about $2.5 billion in sales . Strip that out, and their comparable sales actually grew 0.4% .

**The bottom line:** Net earnings were $2.6 billion, or $2.58 per share. Adjusted earnings came in at $2.72 per share—better than the $2.53 analysts were expecting .

**The dividend:** They bumped it up 1.3% to $2.33 per share quarterly, which works out to $9.32 a year . It's not huge, but it's the 156th quarter in a row they've paid one .

**What's next:** For 2026, they're guiding for sales growth between 2.5% and 4.5%, and earnings per share to be flat to up 4% .

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## The Numbers: Let's Break It Down

Here's the full picture of what Home Depot just reported.

**Table 1: Home Depot Q4 2025 vs. Expectations**

| **Metric** | **Actual** | **What Analysts Expected** | **Vs. Last Year** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| Revenue | $38.2 billion | $38.09 billion  | Down 3.8% |

| Adjusted EPS | $2.72 | $2.53  | Down 13% |

| Comparable Sales | +0.4% | Slightly negative  | Improved |

| U.S. Comps | +0.3% | N/A | Improved |

Now, that 3.8% revenue drop looks scary until you understand the calendar. Last year's Q4 had 14 weeks. This year's had 13. That extra week last year accounted for about $2.5 billion in sales and about 30 cents per share in earnings . So on a comparable basis, they actually grew a little.

**Ted Decker**, Home Depot's CEO, put it this way: "For the fourth quarter, our results were largely in-line with our expectations, reflecting the lack of storm activity in the third quarter and ongoing consumer uncertainty and pressure in housing" .

See that bit about storms? It matters. Normally, Home Depot gets a boost when hurricanes hit—people need plywood, generators, chain saws. That didn't happen much in late 2025. But Winter Storm Fern in January did give them a little bump .

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## The Full Year Picture

For all of fiscal 2025, here's how it shook out.

**Table 2: Home Depot Fiscal 2025 Results**

| **Metric** | **Fiscal 2025** | **Change** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| Total Sales | $164.7 billion | +3.2%  |

| Comparable Sales | +0.3% | Slightly positive |

| U.S. Comps | +0.5% | Positive |

| Net Earnings | $14.2 billion | Down from $14.8 billion |

| Adjusted EPS | $14.69 | Down from $15.24 |

So sales grew, but profits shrank a bit. That's the story of retail right now—higher costs, cautious customers, and everyone waiting to see what happens with interest rates and the housing market.

Decker said underlying demand was "relatively stable throughout the year," once you adjust for the lack of storms .

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## The Dividend: Small but Steady

Here's something you don't see every day: a company raising its dividend by 1.3%.

It's tiny. Almost comically tiny. But it's also the 156th consecutive quarterly dividend Home Depot has paid . That's 39 years.

**The new payout:** $2.33 per share quarterly, or $9.32 annually . Based on Monday's closing price of $376.99, that's a yield of about 2.47% .

The dividend is payable March 26 to shareholders of record on March 12 .

**Why so small?** Because companies don't like cutting dividends. They'd rather raise them a penny than raise them a dime and have to take it back later. This tiny increase says "we're confident enough to give you a little more, but cautious enough not to overpromise."

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## What's Happening With Customers

This is where it gets interesting. The numbers tell a story about how people are shopping right now.

**Transactions dropped 8.5%** . That means fewer people walking through the doors or checking out online.

**But the average ticket rose 2.4%** . So the people who are shopping are spending more each time.

What does that tell you? People are doing the stuff they have to do—fixing the leaky faucet, patching the drywall, replacing the broken water heater. They're not doing the big discretionary projects—the kitchen remodel, the bathroom renovation, the deck addition.

**Finimize** called it a "classic 'fix what you must' mix" . And that's exactly right.

**The housing market is the culprit.** High interest rates mean people aren't moving. And when people don't move, they don't do big renovations. Why remodel the kitchen if you're not selling? Why build a deck if you're staying put?

**Morningstar** put it bluntly: "High interest rates have also particularly curtailed discretionary upgrades that homeowners typically fund with financing, while a stagnant housing market has limited the home improvement projects that come with housing turnover" .

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## What Home Depot Is Doing About It

The company isn't just sitting around waiting for rates to drop. They're making moves.

**They're investing in the "Pro."** That's contractor-speak. Electricians, plumbers, builders—the people who spend serious money. Decker said on the call that "pros who are utilizing our pro ecosystem of capabilities are spending more with us" . They're building out tools, sales support, and delivery options to make it easier for pros to do business with them.

**They're buying up specialty distributors.** Remember SRS Distribution? Home Depot bought them in 2024. In 2025, they added GMS, a building products distributor, for about $5.5 billion . These aren't your local Home Depot stores—they're specialized companies that sell to pros. It's a way to get deeper into the professional market without competing with their own stores.

**They're using AI.** Seriously. Decker mentioned "AI-powered project management tools" that are helping pro customers . It's not sexy, but it's smart. If you can help a contractor manage a whole renovation project through your app, they're going to buy their materials from you.

**They're opening stores.** Fifteen new Home Depot locations in 2026, plus 40-50 new SRS locations . Slow and steady.

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## The 2026 Outlook: Cautious but Not Gloomy

Here's what Home Depot expects for the year ahead.

**Table 3: Home Depot Fiscal 2026 Guidance**

| **Metric** | **Forecast** |

| :--- | :--- |

| Total Sales Growth | 2.5% to 4.5%  |

| Comparable Sales Growth | Flat to 2.0%  |

| New Stores | Approximately 15  |

| Gross Margin | Approximately 33.1%  |

| Operating Margin | 12.4% to 12.6%  |

| Adjusted Operating Margin | 12.8% to 13.0%  |

| EPS Growth | Flat to 4.0%  |

| Adjusted EPS Growth | Flat to 4.0%  |

Notice they're not projecting a huge rebound. Flat to 2% comps. Flat to 4% earnings growth. That's not a company expecting a boom. That's a company expecting more of the same—cautious consumers, high rates, a stagnant housing market.

But here's the thing: that's actually pretty good compared to what could happen. They're not projecting a crash. They're projecting stability.

**Morgan Stanley** analyst Simeon Gutman wrote Tuesday that the "investment case" for Home Depot "is unchanged" after the report . He said home improvement demand is at a "bottom and risks skewed to the upside" .

Translation: Things aren't getting worse. They might even get better.

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## What the Market Thinks

Investors liked what they saw. Home Depot stock rose about 4% on Tuesday, hitting $392.20 and moving above a buy point . That's a pretty clear vote of confidence.

The stock is up about 10% so far in 2026 . Not bad for a company that just reported lower profits.

**Why the enthusiasm?** Because Home Depot beat expectations. Because they reaffirmed their guidance. Because they're taking market share even in a tough environment.

**Finimize** put it well: "Home-improvement stocks often trade on whether DIY demand is stabilizing – and Home Depot's positive comps hint the downturn may be easing" .

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## What This Means for Regular People

Okay, so Home Depot's numbers are out. What does it actually mean for you?

### If You're a Homeowner

You're not alone if you're putting off that big renovation. Millions of people are doing the same thing. High rates and economic uncertainty have everyone hunkering down.

But here's the flip side: your house is getting older every day. That roof isn't getting younger. That water heater isn't getting newer. At some point, the stuff you've been putting off becomes the stuff you can't put off anymore. That's why Home Depot is still seeing people spend more per trip—they're fixing what breaks.

### If You're a Home Depot Shopper

You're probably not going to see any big changes. The stores will keep operating. The orange aprons will keep helping. Maybe you'll notice a few more tools for contractors, a few more delivery options. But mostly, it's business as usual.

### If You're an Investor

This is where it gets interesting. Home Depot is a classic "steady Eddie" stock. They pay a dividend. They've raised it for 16 straight years . They generate cash. They're not going to double overnight, but they're not going to zero either.

The big question is when the housing market turns. When rates drop and people start moving again, that deferred demand for renovations could come roaring back. Home Depot is positioned to capture that.

**Gutman** wrote: "It's all about the eventual housing recovery" . And the Q4 results "support the path to an inflection in home improvement demand" .

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## What to Watch Next

A couple things to keep an eye on.

**Lowe's reports tomorrow.** They're the other half of the home improvement duopoly. How they did will tell us whether Home Depot's results were just about them or about the whole industry.

**Interest rates.** Everything in housing comes back to rates. If the Fed starts cutting, people start moving. If people start moving, they start renovating. Simple as that.

**The "Pro" business.** Home Depot is betting big on contractors and builders. Watch their SRS business and those specialty distributors. If that part of the business grows, it's a good sign they're winning where it matters.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

**Q: Did Home Depot have a good quarter?**

A: It depends on how you look at it. Sales and profits were down from last year, but they beat what analysts expected . Comparable sales actually grew a little when you adjust for the calendar. So... solid, not spectacular.

**Q: Why are they raising the dividend by only 1.3%?**

A: Because they're being cautious. Companies hate cutting dividends, so they'd rather raise them a tiny amount they know they can sustain than raise them a lot and risk having to take it back later. The signal is: we're confident, but not that confident.

**Q: What's the yield on Home Depot stock now?**

A: Based on the new $2.33 quarterly dividend and Monday's closing price of $376.99, the annual yield is about 2.47% .

**Q: When is the dividend paid?**

A: March 26, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 12 .

**Q: Why are people spending less at Home Depot?**

A: Two big reasons. First, high interest rates mean fewer people are moving, and fewer moves mean fewer renovations. Second, people are just cautious right now—they're fixing what breaks but not starting big projects .

**Q: What's the outlook for 2026?**

A: Home Depot expects sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5% and earnings per share to be flat to up 4% . That's not a boom forecast, but it's not a bust either.

**Q: How did the stock react?**

A: The stock rose about 4% on Tuesday, hitting $392.20 . Investors liked the earnings beat and the reaffirmed guidance.

**Q: Is Home Depot a good stock to buy?**

A: I can't give investment advice. But analysts seem to think the investment case is intact, and the stock is trading near a buy point . It's a steady dividend payer with a solid business. Whether that fits your portfolio is up to you.

**Q: What's the deal with SRS and GMS?**

A: They're specialty distributors Home Depot has bought to get deeper into the professional construction market. SRS focuses on roofing and building supplies. GMS does drywall, ceilings, and other stuff. It's a way to reach contractors without competing with their own stores.

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## The Bottom Line

Here's what I keep coming back to.

Home Depot just reported a quarter that was... fine. Not great. Not terrible. Fine. Sales down a little. Profits down a little. But still beating expectations. Still growing market share. Still paying that dividend for the 156th quarter in a row.

The bigger story is what this tells us about the American consumer and the American home. People are staying put. They're not moving. They're not doing big renovations. They're fixing what breaks and waiting to see what happens with rates and the economy.

**CEO Ted Decker** summed it up pretty well: "Underlying demand was relatively stable throughout the year" . That's not exciting. But in a year of uncertainty and housing pressure, stable is actually pretty good.

The question now is what happens next. When rates finally come down—and they will, eventually—that pent-up demand for moves and renovations could turn into real growth. Home Depot is positioning itself to capture that, with investments in the Pro business, in digital tools, and in specialty distributors.

Until then, they'll keep grinding. Keep opening stores. Keep raising that dividend by tiny amounts. Keep serving the customers who walk through the door.

It's not flashy. But it's steady. And sometimes steady is exactly what you want.

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*Got thoughts on Home Depot's results? Planning that renovation you've been putting off? Drop a comment and let me know.*