Dow Jones Futures: Trump's Anthropic Move Hits Market ETFs; Don't Forget S&P 500's Hottest Stocks

 

# Dow Jones Futures: Trump's Anthropic Move Hits Market ETFs; Don't Forget S&P 500's Hottest Stocks

**Published: February 28, 2026**

You know that feeling when the ground shifts beneath your feet, and suddenly everything you thought you knew about the market needs a second look?

That's where we are right now.

President Trump's Friday afternoon bombshell—ordering all federal agencies to immediately cease using Anthropic's technology—has sent shockwaves through an already jittery market . The AI sector, already split between hardware winners and software losers, just got a whole lot more complicated.

But here's the thing about markets: even when headlines are scary, there's always money being made somewhere. And while the software ETFs are getting hammered, the S&P 500's hottest stocks—the ones tied to AI hardware and memory—are absolutely on fire.

Let me walk you through what's happening, why the Anthropic news matters, and where you should be looking if you want to find the stocks that are actually working right now.

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## The Short Version: What You Need to Know

**The Anthropic bombshell:** President Trump ordered all federal agencies to "IMMEDIATELY CEASE all use of Anthropic's technology," and the Pentagon designated the company a "supply chain risk" after it refused to drop safeguards against mass surveillance and autonomous weapons .

**The market impact:** Software stocks, already under pressure from AI disruption fears, are getting hit again. IBM dropped 13% earlier this week after Anthropic's Claude Code threatened its COBOL modernization business . The software ETF selloff is the worst since 2008 .

**The other side of the trade:** While software crumbles, memory and hardware stocks are crushing it. SanDisk (SNDK) is up 160% year-to-date. Western Digital (WDC) has gained nearly 70%. Teradyne (TER) is up 60% .

**The Goldman framework:** The bank's analysts have coined the "HALO effect"—heavy assets, low obsolescence. Companies with physical infrastructure, factories, and hard assets are winning. Labor-light software companies are losing .

**What to watch:** Nvidia earnings are behind us, but the rotation is still playing out. The S&P 500's hottest stocks right now are the ones selling picks and shovels to the AI revolution, not the ones selling software that AI might replace.

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## The Trump-Anthropic Showdown: What Just Happened

Let's start with the news that's dominating Friday's headlines.

On February 27, President Trump took to Truth Social with a message that left no room for interpretation:

"I am directing EVERY Federal Agency in the United States Government to IMMEDIATELY CEASE all use of Anthropic's technology. We don't need it, we don't want it and will not do business with them again! Anthropic better get their act together and be helpful during this phase out period, or I will use the Full Power of the Presidency to make them comply, with major civil and criminal consequences to follow" .

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth followed up with an even more aggressive statement, announcing that the Pentagon would designate Anthropic a "supply chain risk to national security"—a label typically reserved for companies with direct ties to foreign adversaries .

### Why This Happened

The conflict stems from Anthropic's refusal to agree to "any lawful use" of its Claude models. The company insisted on maintaining two core safeguards:

1. No use of its AI for mass domestic surveillance of Americans

2. Human responsibility for the use of force, including autonomous weapons

The Pentagon gave Anthropic a deadline of Friday at 5:01 PM to drop these restrictions. Anthropic held firm. Hours later, the hammer fell .

**Anthropic's response:** The company said it will challenge the designation in court, calling it "both legally unsound and a dangerous precedent for any American company that negotiates with the government" .

### The Irony

Here's where it gets interesting. OpenAI, Anthropic's chief rival, signed a deal with the Pentagon on Friday that reportedly includes the same restrictions Anthropic was punished for demanding . OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the Department of War "agrees with these principles" and "reflects them in law and policy" .

So one company gets blacklisted for demanding safeguards. Another gets a contract for asking for the same thing. That's the market we're navigating right now.

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## The Market Reaction: Software Gets Hammered, Again

The Anthropic news lands in a market that's already deeply nervous about AI disruption.

### The Software Selloff

Over the past month, Anthropic has released four products that have sent software stocks into a tailspin:

**Table 1: Anthropic's Market-Moving Product Launches**

| **Date** | **Product** | **Impact** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| Jan 30 | Legal AI tool | Thomson Reuters -16%, LegalZoom -20% |

| Feb 5 | Claude Opus 4.6 | FactSet -7.2%, software index -4% |

| Feb 21 | Claude Code Security | CrowdStrike -6.5%, cybersecurity stocks hammered |

| Feb 23 | COBOL modernization tool | IBM -13.2% (worst day since 2000) |

*Sources: *

Goldman Sachs' software basket has now posted its seventh consecutive daily decline in early February, bringing its year-to-date loss to 19% . The Nasdaq 100 is down 1.4% so far in 2026 .

**The core fear:** If AI can do the work that software companies charge for, why keep paying for software licenses? It's a simple question with terrifying implications for the SaaS business model.

### The Broader Market Picture

The selloff isn't just about AI. It's layered on top of renewed trade war fears. The Supreme Court recently struck down Trump's global tariff authority, but the president responded by threatening a 15% temporary tariff on all imports anyway .

The combination has created a "sell first, assess later" mentality. As Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, put it: "You've seen the market react to headlines, it's 'sell first, assess later.' It's a perspective of what may happen as opposed to what has happened" .

**The numbers:**

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: down over 800 points on Monday alone 

- S&P 500: off more than 1% 

- Nasdaq Composite: down over 1% 

- Financial stocks: off 3.3% 

- Software-related firms: slid 4.3% 

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## The Other Side: S&P 500's Hottest Stocks

Here's where the "Don't Forget" part of our title comes in. While software gets hammered, there's a whole universe of stocks that are absolutely crushing it.

### The Memory Chip Boom

The AI buildout requires massive amounts of memory. NAND prices are rising rapidly. Data centers, cloud providers, and edge devices all need more high-speed storage. And three stocks are benefiting in a huge way.

**Table 2: The Hottest S&P 500 Stocks of 2026**

| **Stock** | **Ticker** | **YTD Return** | **What They Do** |

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| SanDisk | SNDK | +160% | NAND flash memory for AI data centers |

| Western Digital | WDC | +70% | Hyperscale storage solutions, 20% stake in SNDK |

| Teradyne | TER | +60% | Chip testing equipment for AI accelerators |

*Source: *

**SanDisk (SNDK):** Up 160% in just two months. The company's revenue acceleration tells the story: sales of $3.0 billion climbed 61% year-over-year in its latest quarter. Full-year estimates have jumped 50% over the last year .

**Western Digital (WDC):** After being one of 2025's top performers, WDC is up another 70% in 2026. The company's cash-generating abilities have surged, with free cash flow of $653 million in its latest quarter, up 125% year-over-year .

**Teradyne (TER):** Up 60% year-to-date. The company makes equipment used to test chips, and with AI chips among the most complex on the market, demand for testing is exploding. Recent quarterly results came in above the high-end of previous guidance .

All three stocks sport the coveted Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) .

### Why They're Winning

These companies aren't selling software that AI might replace. They're selling the physical infrastructure that makes AI possible. SanDisk's NAND flash, Western Digital's storage solutions, Teradyne's testing equipment—these are the picks and shovels of the AI gold rush.

As one analyst put it, "AI is driving a huge surge in storage demand" . That demand shows no signs of slowing.

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## Goldman Sachs's Framework: The HALO Effect

To understand why some stocks are winning while others are losing, Goldman Sachs has developed a useful framework.

### The HALO Effect

Goldman's strategists have named this dynamic the "HALO effect"—standing for **heavy assets and low obsolescence** .

According to Goldman's client note, authored by strategists including Guillaume Jaisson and Peter Oppenheimer, the bank's basket of capital-intensive stocks has outperformed a capital-light group by about **35% since the start of 2025** .

What counts as "HALO" businesses?

- Grids and pipelines

- Utilities

- Transport infrastructure

- Critical machinery

- Factories with physical supply chains

These are assets that are costly to replicate and less exposed to technological obsolescence. No AI model can shortcut the timeline required to build a factory or lay pipeline .

### The Two Metrics That Matter

Goldman's approach relies on two specific screens:

**1. Labor cost as a share of revenue.** The bank's company-level metric estimates exposure to AI automation by analyzing job functions and overlaying them with task-level measures of AI capability. Software, professional services, banks, and media rank as the most at-risk sectors .

**2. Physical asset density.** Businesses anchored to factories, distribution networks, or precision manufacturing equipment carry a natural moat. Those operations take years to replicate .

### European Examples

Goldman's European capital-intensive favorites include:

- **ASML (ASML):** Monopoly on extreme ultraviolet chip lithography equipment

- **Airbus:** Commercial aircraft assembly requiring years of precision engineering

- **Safran:** Long-cycle aerospace contracts with strong revenue visibility

- **LVMH:** Luxury brand dominance backed by physical craftsmanship

- **Air Liquide:** Industrial gas infrastructure built over decades

### The Hyperscalers Join the Club

Interestingly, the big tech companies are themselves becoming capital-intensive plays. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle are on track to spend **$1.5 trillion building AI infrastructure between 2023 and 2026** —roughly twice what they invested across their entire history before 2022 .

In 2026 alone, their capex is on track to exceed **$650 billion** .

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## The Software Survivors

Not all software companies are doomed. Goldman has been deliberate about distinguishing the ones that will weather this shift from those that won't.

### Software Winners

**Microsoft (MSFT):** Cloud and AI infrastructure that virtually every large enterprise depends on, with switching costs that make displacement extremely difficult .

**Oracle (ORCL):** Database systems so deeply embedded in corporate workflows that replacing them carries enormous cost and operational risk .

**CrowdStrike (CRWD):** Cybersecurity infrastructure that becomes more critical, not less, as AI tools multiply the attack surface .

**Palo Alto Networks (PANW):** Network security with deep regulatory entrenchment across financial services, healthcare, and government .

**Cloudflare (NET):** Internet infrastructure handling an increasing share of global AI-driven traffic .

### Software Losers

**Salesforce (CRM):** Core workflow automation that AI agents are beginning to replicate internally without a paid subscription .

**Accenture (ACN):** Consulting and outsourcing services that AI agents are absorbing at a pace threatening the traditional billing model .

**DocuSign (DOCU):** Document management workflows that generative AI now handles from drafting through signature .

**Monday.com (MNDY):** Project coordination tools facing direct pressure from autonomous AI assistants .

**Duolingo (DUOL):** Language learning platform competing directly against AI tutors .

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## What This Means for Investors

### If You're a Growth Investor

The days of buying any tech stock and expecting it to go up are over. The market is drawing hard lines between winners and losers. Memory stocks like SanDisk and Western Digital are showing what real AI demand looks like.

### If You're a Value Investor

Goldman's HALO framework gives you a way to think about durable businesses. Utilities, pipelines, industrial infrastructure—these aren't exciting, but they're not getting disrupted by AI either.

### If You're an ETF Investor

Be careful with broad tech ETFs. The Nasdaq 100 includes both AI winners and software losers. You might be getting more disruption risk than you bargained for. Sector-specific ETFs focused on semiconductors or infrastructure might make more sense.

### If You're Just Watching

This is a fascinating moment in market history. We're watching a technology-driven rotation that will define winners and losers for years to come. The companies selling picks and shovels to the AI revolution are winning. The companies selling software that AI might replace are losing.

It's that simple. And that complicated.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

**Q: Why did Trump ban Anthropic from government use?**

A: Anthropic refused to drop safeguards against mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. The Pentagon demanded "any lawful use" of its technology. Anthropic held firm. Trump responded with a government-wide ban and a "supply chain risk" designation .

**Q: How did software stocks react to all this?**

A: Poorly. Software stocks were already under pressure from AI disruption fears. The Anthropic news added to the selling. Goldman's software basket is down 19% year-to-date .

**Q: What are the S&P 500's hottest stocks right now?**

A: SanDisk (SNDK) up 160%, Western Digital (WDC) up nearly 70%, and Teradyne (TER) up 60%. All three benefit from AI-driven demand for memory and chip testing .

**Q: What's the "HALO effect" Goldman talks about?**

A: Heavy assets, low obsolescence. Companies with physical infrastructure—factories, pipelines, utilities—are winning because their assets are hard to replicate and not easily disrupted by AI .

**Q: Are any software companies safe?**

A: Yes. Microsoft, Oracle, and cybersecurity firms like CrowdStrike have deep moats. But software companies that rely on selling seats to humans (like Salesforce) are vulnerable .

**Q: How does this affect Nvidia?**

A: Nvidia is in a complicated spot. They're selling the chips that power AI, which is great. But they're also facing concerns about "over-earning" and whether demand can sustain current valuations . The stock is down despite strong earnings .

**Q: What about the tariff situation?**

A: The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariff authority, but he's threatening new tariffs anyway. This uncertainty is adding to market volatility .

**Q: Is this a good time to buy software stocks?**

A: That depends. Goldman says companies facing disruption fears will need either multiple quarters demonstrating business resilience or significantly lower valuations before investors re-engage in size .

**Q: What should I watch next?**

A: Keep an eye on hyperscaler capex numbers. If spending slows, even the hardware winners could face pressure. Goldman expects a peak in spending growth later this year .

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## The Bottom Line

Here's what I keep coming back to.

The market is drawing a line. On one side are the companies selling physical infrastructure to the AI revolution—memory chips, testing equipment, factories, pipelines. On the other side are the companies selling software that AI might replace.

**The numbers don't lie:** SanDisk up 160%. Goldman's software basket down 19%. The market has made its preference clear.

**The Anthropic news** adds another layer of complexity. The administration is picking winners and losers in AI, and that creates both risk and opportunity.

**For investors,** the path forward requires nuance. Broad tech ETFs might not be the answer. Sector-specific plays, careful stock selection, and an understanding of Goldman's HALO framework will matter more than ever.

**For the rest of us,** we're watching a historic rotation play out in real time. The companies that make the stuff AI needs are winning. The companies that sell the stuff AI might replace are losing.

It's not complicated. But navigating it requires discipline.

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*Got questions about how this affects your portfolio? Drop them in the comments.*